Semi-Official Tea Party $ guess estimate
Posted December 7th, 2007 by Bob W
output
Ok folks, time for a little more fun as directed by Doctor Paul.
Break out your crystal ball, your intuition, your analyzing ability, premonitions, prayer numbers, or whatever, and tell us your dollar amount for the Tea Party.
Prize will be a congrats from all here and zero dollars.....and bragging rights, of course!
Rules:
Total dollars collected from 12 to 12 (24 hrs) e.s.t.
Only funds from on-line donations count-not any funds from HQ's
No ranges-specific number to the penny
Going over is ok-just closest to actual dollars collected.
Do you feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk? Game on!
(My disadvantaged, 9 day advance guess: $8,417,214.11)
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Slashdot
I submitted slashdot stories for this bomb and the last one in November. Neither seem to be going anywhere! I can't believe that no one thinks these are story worthy.
excellent!
20M total for Q4 is now within easy reach
Someone please SLASHDOT our success today!
Could a Slashdot veteran with a respected Slashdot reputation please create a post describing Ron Paul's internet savvy supporters and their phenomenal grassroots online campaign success?
Many intelligent, affluent, libertarian-oriented persons read http://www.Slashdot.com
Hope one of us with the necessary sophistication can pull this off.
Ron Paul 'The Truth'
Ron Paul 'The Truth'
I'm going to say $7.2 million. That's still an outrageous amount.
Closest without going over?
I guessed $17,863,211.48 only off by $116,946
Tentative Winner of Tea Party Prediction
This report is late because the touchscreen voting machines all went kaput simultaneously at 11:59, and we had to go to our backup paper reports full of hanging chads. Rest assured that this info represents a true and complete report of the results, but that's only because we decided to let them do so because we couldn't find any way to skew them in our favor.
Submitting my judgment to the Ronpaulican community, at 1 a.m. it looks like the publishable totals are $6.4 million raised, comprising $6.0 million online and $0.4 million offline. According to Dan Bachelder at http://www.ronpaulgraphs.... the offline total, which this thread is about, was $6.024 million. (Everyone please thank Dan for donating $700 today.)
My judgment is that the winner is "Brad V in CA from CT", who was the first among several to guess $6 million exactly, on December 8th. No other guess came closer.
I am not able at this time to determine who came closest to the total including offline contributions, but it doesn't matter, because the prize is worth the same. That's what Bob W gets for denominating it in Federal Reserve notes.
Actually, all of us guessed
Actually, all of us guessed $6 million. Congratulations!
Brad V in CA from CT
Crunchy
TheKingIsComing
FreeRonPaul-dot-com
jednp
My apologies
Congrats to all of you. I didn't realize as it looked like you were all the same person on the chart. Hope you all had a good day off. Back to the campaign tomorrow.
Letters, phone calls, door knocking, sign waving, convincing anyone yhou come into contact with are what we all in order from now until election day.
Time is running out all. Campaign like never before during our stretch run. No excuses!
My Official estimate as of 3:51 AM...
...9.4 million dollars...
...but I hope for more!
My Guess
$8.6 mil
Please prove me wrong - WAY WRONG!!!!
$6,854,784.14
My guess
At 3:43 AM EST, I project
$11,576,923.07
Hey everyone go and post on
Hey everyone go and post on this website that is run by fools...we cannot let thm have any influence.
TEA PARTY TODAY!
americansagainstronpaul dot blogspot.com
$8,851,095.92
$8,851,095.92
I'd say
7.2 million
My estimation is...
Id say 12,478,927.76
but thats just a rough estimate.lol
GO RON PAUL!!
New Prediction Based on Data for First 102 Minutes
As of 1:42 AM, EST, we had raised $587,719 which computes to $5,762/minute! If maintained for 24 hours, we would raise a grand total of $8,297,280.
Prior to midnight, 12/16, I made a psychomathematical prediction here of $8,426,784.95 which was greater than my mathematical estimate of $8,233,425. The latter estimate, however, is very close to the projection from actual data. And, because this figure will put us so close to $20 million for the quarter, there is no way that we will let it fall short of that goal, so I predict now that we will get a minimum of $8,447,438 for the day! That's in the ball park with my pre-bomb prediction. :-D
Yes compare how much we
Yes compare how much we raised today to Nov 5th. It took over 8 hours I think to raise a million on that day, and most of the donations didn't start kicking in till about that time.
Hey, some people are sleeping now, you know. The rate could
sustain some really high peaks in non-Draculoid hours.. =)
_______________________
*** God bless Ron Paul ***
* Ron Paul For President *
Bombs away!
Nominations are closed and BOMB HATCHES ARE OPEN, it is now after 12:06 a.m. Dec. 16 EST. This list is (semiofficially) final. As a public service and because he's a glutton for it, my hubby has compiled all totals to date. (Note: Bob W and BobW are different accounts.)
OPEN SEASON! As of 12:00 a.m. my RP "start" counter reads: $11,552,561.57.
9000000000000.00 GeorgeWashington
110000000000.00 cablenewsjunkie
11294117647.00 Miguel Portela
3600000000.00 loki
1000000000.00 rustybuick
100000000.00 Memphis
70000000.00 Freedom Now
40000000.00 gee_blee
23000000.00 JimCunningham
22000000.00 Galileo
20500000.00 RainmanSC
20000001.00 haightashbury1969
20000000.00 hodag1 (dante, shoms_w)
19416274.83 coopkabob
17863211.48 Enonesoch
17762007.00 penguin
17760000.00 ibelieveinspecie
14579200.00 bondservent1958
14420420.50 JoeDanger
12900000.00 SyntheticSolutions
12500000.00 AmericanPatriot55
12490000.00 nimbo6
12376000.00 RP-Rocks
12345678.90 Dewder
12300000.00 nalicosh
12100000.00 George Johnson
12000000.00 Phat
11700000.00 Number19
11573283.57 dcarter9
11500000.00 firsttobecool
11376992.23 wils5742
10710250.00 marhlfld
10222800.00 senseido
10125000.00 witheyeswideopen
10115023.00 yakamoz
10100000.00 lamb990
10000006.66 Devils.Advocate
10000000.00 bozokong_dot_com (djskiefer, mainah, PgmrPaul, RP08isHOPE, Brian Bailey, jbb1976)
9999999.99 boomstick2004
9875242.45 denpratt
9847500.76 cwarren2000
9545654.00 Ishtahota
9505000.00 kdrake
9400000.00 antiwardoc
9324132.69 Jon Kirkpatrick
9259821.75 Thundercloud
9122501.50 blnpilot
9111776.00 jmeagan
9110000.00 hs
9000001.00 amirh
8976543.21 freedomforall
8788340.00 Moobi
8764658.41 Ruth
8675309.00 Outdoorsman-4-RP (Rob, Laddyboy13)
8626566.33 Libera_me's husband
8540000.00 oldmom
8500000.00 louisnatale
8482637.02 Lymeade-Lady
8483234.76 AntiHer0
8457332.76 5StarDem4RonPaul
8426966.21 Will the Third
8426784.95 Likkerish
8417214.11 Bob W
8345678.00 VicDeHaven
8300000.00 libertylady
8253281.03 Texan4RP
8250000.01 phoobaar
8177617.76 Francisco d Anconia
8117135.76 HolisticMD
8110000.00 everest
8078000.00 Libera_me
8035690.64 jabbott0
8008008.08 ejamiami
8000000.00 Skotoseme01 (DelafieldGuy, Cameron Davis, restoredhope)
7987911.07 80
7900573.76 Becky Blauvelt
7834568.00 SIERRAHPBT
7830000.00 dgingerich
7800000.00 birdmanx35
7790000.00 Malum Prohibitum
7777777.77 pegarizona
7777770.07 Kevin@HarperRealty
7700000.00 demolay
7654817.34 akak
7654321.00 TenoG
7634368.34 taylor4ronpaul
7560238.23 punjabimunda
7411492.00 Mainers4RP
7323899.54 Twiztedklown316
7300300.00 thefreeman
7214583.67 Texas Little El
7212480.76 ProspectorSam
7203967.00 Jilly
7200000.00 hocaltar
7111111.11 trading7
7100000.00 RockHoward (airborne373, stratton)
7097985.00 Zapparulez
7000000.00 ronpaul4pres (JJR, liberta, overcominghope)
6840000.00 DavidShankle
6813100.00 fram-rpfan
6800000.00 symtex411
6750000.00 sleuth51
6679939.00 Dirigo
6543210.00 WiseGuy
6500000.00 Ian Bowles
6499999.99 BobW
6437983.00 doctor011
6437239.11 bthomson
6429853.44 Scanner313
6376241.83 DarkLaw
6300000.00 kipload
6200000.00 StarMan2112
6143000.00 Average Joe
6125750.00 RPJunkie
6000000.00 Brad V in CA from CT (Crunchy, TheKingIsComing, FreeRonPaul-dot-com, jednp)
5967500.00 check
5891665.31 Ron Aldof
5600001.00 jaymac
5600000.00 gg
5500000.00 alyssafaith
5344000.00 Treg
5107916.00 ord33
5077625.00 Overhaul-with-Paul
5000000.00 lem
4975000.00 E. Oregon 4 Ron
4900000.00 Scotty T
4500000.00 soulmantim
4200000.00 DontTreadonMe
3700000.00 jcolt84
3333333.99 glad2bdad
3100000.00 saul4paul
3000000.00 latropa
Semi-official winner of Tea Party guesstimate
Goes to Brad V from CA. He was within 28/29k of number based on rules set.
Honorable mention to "Check," for coming in second.
Honorable mention #2 to Scanner 313 for almost hitting the exact number for total donations shown for the day. (According to rules, money added by campaign would not be considered for this contest) But the number was so overall accurate, couldn't be left out.
Congrats to Brad V! You can take tomorrow off. Subject to final review, you may all congratulate Brad on his accurate crystal ball.
P.S. I hope it says 25 million by quarter's end. Wouldn't that be nice.
Sweet
I are almost teh winnar!
I ain't jinx'n it.
___________________________
There's no sheep here, there's wolves here, questioning our nation's government.
Former United States Marine
Patriot
For Ron Paul
Revising upward
I'm going with the nicer-sounding $8,078,000.00. Hubby's new guess was going to be 33424 expected pledges 12/15 (from 32473 at 3pm and 33107 at 9pm) / 17700 pledges 11/4 x $4 million = $7,553,446.33. But then he decided to add the sophisticated wild assumptive guess that the blimp buys would return 4x their purchase value of $268,280, so his final guess is: $8,626,566.33.
I've revised upward to $7
I've revised upward to $7 million. :)
Fill it up
When the thermometer is full, bald eagles should fly out fro every donation made after. If they flew out in different patterns that would be awesome.
$7,654,817.34
$7,654,817.34
I can't wait til midnight... this this is going to TAKEOFF !!!
...Like a Saturn V Rocket! We're going to the moon BABY!!
Revising up again... $12.49 Mil for the day and $26 Mil for the Month.
Don't worry about this being the last...this is only the beginning!!!!
Mike
Who is Ron Paul? I am Ron Paul! We are Ron Paul!
"Fire Team for Freedom" on RonPaulRadio.com
Mondays and Wednesdays 10pm EST
or visit www.mikeandjake.com
Tea Party
I have been thinking about this all day.
$20.5 million for the tea party alone!
Mine is going in at 12 midnight
As I've said before...
Given the previous statistics from the November 5th surge (~$115 average donation, ~17,500 subscribers, ~39,000 total donors), I'd say we'll be in the $7 to $8 million range based on that alone. That said, I had dinner early tonight, so that I'll be prepared to eat my hat!
11.5MIL
Im saying he will double what we have right now.
$12,500,000 and that I believe is CONSERVATIVE!
I agree with a lot of other people here; there is a REVOLUTION going on and there has been MUCH MORE publicity since the Nov. 5th money bomb! I am another who hasn't pledged but intend to donate! And I don't believe most people have reached their limit! If so, they can ask a relative to donate for them! We have to do WHATEVER it takes!
If we go over 12.5 MILLION, what are the chances that Ron Paul will get some MEDIA ATTENTION? His campaign had BETTER use some of this to PROTECT this man, an INTERNATIONAL HERO! Secret Service is run by the same Elitists that run the FED and the World Banking System! What kind of protection does he have now?
What does the winner get?
Liberty. Satisfaction at accurately gauging the patriotism of our fellow Revolutionaries. And, if we are truly blessed, the best President in our lifetimes.
$14,420,420.50
Hopefully, some of our friends around the world will help as well.
Liberty, once it takes root, is a plant of rapid growth.
Unfortunately...
By law, foreigners can't donate to official campaigns. However there is a tea party happening in Strasbourg, France, hopefully Ron will get more exposure in Europe's media!
8'976'543.21
this is my guesstimate.
Median Tea Party $ Estimate
I computed the median prediction which is not influenced by extreme predictions like the mean. I computed this from the list provided but omitted the lesser entry by Bob W., since he was listed twice. I added in my estimate and four others since the tally was made. There were 122 estimates.
The median was $8,147,376.38 which lay midway between the estimates of Holistic MD at $8,117,135 and Francisco d Anconia at $8,177,617.76
So, my mathematical estimate of $8,233,425 is very near the central tendency for this distribution.
My psychomathematical estimate of $8,426,784.95 needed to reach $20 million by end of the day is also nearby.
This suggests to me that we are going to raise in the vicinity of double what we raised on November 5th and probably a bit more. This is what I have been anticipating for some time now. I think the group consciousness adds validity to this expectation.
New Tea Party Psychomathematical $ Estimate
On November 5th, according to my search, there were about 17,700 pledges and 38,905 donors. This is a ratio of 2.198 donors for every pledge. Today, there are 32,473 pledges for the Tea Party at about 3 PM EST. Allowing for the fact that pledges recently have been increasing rapidly, I would estimate 32,573 pledges by midnight EST. According to Ron Paul graphs, we raised $4.1 million online on November 5th. That is an average donation of $105. Thus, my estimate based on previous results and a projected estimate of $115 per donor would be:
2.198 X 32,573 = 71,595 donors X $115 = $8,233,425.
But, I also think that there will me a motivation to get to $20 million for the quarter. We are now increasing at the rate of $11,000 per hour with the overseas pre-bomb. So, by midnight, we should be at about $11.573 million. So, I am predicting that we will contribute a total of $8,426,784.95.
I agree
That estimation technique sounds legitimate, and I came up with $8,035,690.64 using slightly different numbers. I also believe there will be a push to get the total for the quarter over $20M, so anything is possible at this point. :^)
I would love it
if the the total moneybomb is 17,762,007.00
classic...
... I just hope $12 mill gets broken.
My guesstimate - am I out in space on this?
On the Tea Party site, there are as of now 32,473 pledges, so at $100 each, that would be a minimum of $3,247,300.
On the bottom where it says visitors, the number is 210,763. If we subtract the pledged people from the list of visitors, I get 178,290 visitors who didn't pledge.
I'm going to be out on a limb guesstimating that 20% of these 178,290 visitors donate $100 dollars each (because if they were curious enough to go to the site in the first place, quite a number of them would be sold on Ron Paul), so that would be $3,565,800. (Unless of course, those who pledged are not counted in the visitors mix in which case leave the visitors number at 210,763 and take 20% of that and multiply by $100)
Add the $3,247,300 to the $3,565,800 and you get $6,813,100.
BUT, I haven't included any of those who haven't visited the blimp site but have donated through hearing about Ron Paul and go directly to his web site, not to mention those who do not have a computer!
Any opinions on this?
I have visited that website
I have visited that website several times on different occasions to see the number of pledges...I don't think that number reflects the number of individuals who visited the site.
"Visitor" might be "IP address", "Visits", or worse, "Pages"
There is no informatoin what these things mean.
I've "visited" the Tea Party site several times, from several different computers, and I've accessed multiple pages. I would be *shocked* if I've been counted as only "1 visitor". (How would they know?)
The labels on Internet site access metrics are notoriously misleading.
Dennis
State education: "The best way to insure implicit obedience is to commence tyranny in nursery." - Disraeli
Parenting: http://p196.ezboard.com/b...
Not bad, for starters
...but, the overall average donation exceeded $100 on Nov 5th, and supporters have been saving up for tomorrow for over a month. Also, you need to factor in supporters who have heard about the big day, but have neither visited the official site nor pledged.
$11.7M
I've been helping out on the organizing of our own Tea Party down here in Ron Paul's Brazoria County, Tx, so I'm a little late in getting my guess in. I'm going to stay with a number which has been bouncing around inside my brain for several days, and that is - $11.7M.
We're going to have a big, big, big day tomorrow and I'll be there helping to make a cool $1M the first hour.
$9,505,000
but over $10 million will be really sweet.
List of Tea Party guesses
As a public service and because he's a glutton for it, my hubby has compiled all totals to date along with both of ours (find them!). He will be happy to get a login if necessary to claim his prize. My guess is just rough, his guess is 32473 pledges 12/15 / 18600 pledges 11/4 x $4 million.
9000000000000.00 GeorgeWashington
110000000000.00 cablenewsjunkie
11294117647.00 Miguel Portela
3600000000.00 loki
1000000000.00 rustybuick
100000000.00 Memphis
70000000.00 Freedom Now
40000000.00 gee_blee
23000000.00 JimCunningham
22000000.00 Galileo
20000001.00 haightashbury1969
20000000.00 hodag1 (dante, shoms_w)
19416274.83 coopkabob
17863211.48 Enonesoch
17760000.00 ibelieveinspecie
14579200.00 bondservent1958
12900000.00 SyntheticSolutions
12376000.00 RP-Rocks
12345678.90 Dewder
12300000.00 nalicosh
12100000.00 George Johnson
11690000.00 nimbo6
11573283.57 dcarter9
11376992.23 wils5742
10710250.00 marhlfld
10222800.00 senseido
10125000.00 witheyeswideopen
10115023.00 yakamoz
10100000.00 lamb990
10000006.66 Devils.Advocate
10000000.00 bozokong_dot_com (djskiefer, mainah, PgmrPaul, RP08isHOPE, Brian Bailey, jbb1976)
9999999.99 boomstick2004
9875242.45 denpratt
9847500.76 cwarren2000
9545654.00 Ishtahota
9400000.00 antiwardoc
9324132.69 Jon Kirkpatrick
9259821.75 Thundercloud
9122501.50 blnpilot
9111776.00 jmeagan
9110000.00 hs
9000001.00 amirh
8788340.00 Moobi
8764658.41 Ruth
8675309.00 Outdoorsman-4-RP (Rob, Laddyboy13)
8540000.00 oldmom
8500000.00 louisnatale
8482637.02 Lymeade-Lady
8483234.76 AntiHer0
8457332.76 5StarDem4RonPaul
8426966.21 Will the Third
8417214.11 Bob W
8345678.00 VicDeHaven
8300000.00 libertylady
8253281.03 Texan4RP
8250000.01 phoobaar
8177617.76 Francisco d Anconia
8117135.76 HolisticMD
8110000.00 everest
8008008.08 ejamiami
8000000.00 Skotoseme01 (DelafieldGuy, Cameron Davis, restoredhope)
7987911.07 80
7900573.76 Becky Blauvelt
7834568.00 SIERRAHPBT
7830000.00 dgingerich
7800000.00 birdmanx35
7790000.00 Malum Prohibitum
7777777.77 pegarizona
7777770.07 Kevin@HarperRealty
7700000.00 demolay
7654321.00 TenoG
7634368.34 taylor4ronpaul
7560238.23 punjabimunda
7411492.00 Mainers4RP
7323899.54 Twiztedklown316
7300300.00 thefreeman
7214583.67 Texas Little El
7212480.76 ProspectorSam
7203967.00 Jilly
7200000.00 hocaltar
7111111.11 trading7
7100000.00 RockHoward (airborne373, stratton)
7097985.00 Zapparulez
7000000.00 ronpaul4pres (JJR, liberta, overcominghope)
6983440.86 Libera_me's husband
6840000.00 DavidShankle
6800000.00 symtex411
6750000.00 sleuth51
6679939.00 Dirigo
6543210.00 WiseGuy
6500000.00 Ian Bowles
6499999.99 BobW
6437983.00 doctor011
6437239.11 bthomson
6429853.44 Scanner313
6376241.83 DarkLaw
6300000.00 kipload
6250000.00 Libera_me
6200000.00 StarMan2112
6143000.00 Average Joe
6125750.00 RPJunkie
6000000.00 Brad V in CA from CT (Crunchy, TheKingIsComing, FreeRonPaul-dot-com, jednp)
5967500.00 check
5891665.31 Ron Aldof
5600001.00 jaymac
5600000.00 gg
5500000.00 alyssafaith
5344000.00 Treg
5107916.00 ord33
5077625.00 Overhaul-with-Paul
5000000.00 lem
4975000.00 E. Oregon 4 Ron
4900000.00 Scotty T
4500000.00 soulmantim
4200000.00 DontTreadonMe
3700000.00 jcolt84
3333333.99 glad2bdad
3100000.00 saul4paul
3000000.00 latropa
Hey, thanks for collating
Hey, thanks for filtering all that info!
Must be bored, Libera_me
But thanks for your hard work: It will make it much more fun. Assuming you left out the ones that cheated and put in a range. Some people just can't follow rules.....they will have to donate twice! :)