Why the 7 to 11% national polls show Ron Paul is the frontrunner - statistical explanationSubmitted by bgj47 on Tue, 11/08/2011 - 19:40
I consider myself a math and stats guy and have been bothered for quite some time just like many of you that Ron Paul seems to only keep polling at between 7 and 11 percent in the Gallup and Rasmussen polls despite crushing the straw polls and online debate polls so I decided to see if there was maybe a reason for this “statistically” and after doing some number crunching I have been able to determine that I believe these polls to be accurate but at the same time incredibly misleading. Let me explain. And just a warning ahead of time, this looks very good for Ron Paul, and the Diebold election machines will have some explaining to do if we lose the primary and here’s why…
I have decided to use the 2008 primary as my base for numbers. When looking at the 2008 primaries for both parties we can determine the number of “active participants” in the primary process (people I consider as those who get involved in the political process such as watch debates, vote online in debate polls, and most importantly, vote in the primaries). Looking at 2008, the number of eligible voters for the primaries in the United States was 247,352,702. The number of actual voters in these primaries was 61,445,859 which means that 24.84% of eligible voters participated in the primaries.
Let’s now take that percentage and plug it in to the Gallup and Rasmussen polls that use a sample size of 1,000 voters (it doesn’t necessarily matter if the poll uses more or less than 1,000). When Gallup and Rasmussen conduct their polls, the calls are not directed at “active participants”, instead they are chosen at random. So therefore if you call 1,000 people, the 2008 primary numbers indicate that roughly only 1 in 4 of those participating in these polls will be voting in the primary. This part of the analysis now requires us to take a quick look at the Ron Paul support base.
Ron Paul supporters are known to be by far the most avid of all supporters. Even the Mainstream Media acknowledges this, one of the recent polls said that even though Ron Paul only gained 10% support, it was the most solid support and that his 10% was not likely to being going away. We can all agree that with the media censoring going on, if you support Ron Paul it is because you are an “active participant”. I do not know of a single Ron Paul supporter that will not be voting in a primary and most of us watch the debates and most of us vote in the debates. I will say for the sake of this study that I’m very confident that at least 75% of Ron Paul supporters will be voting in the primaries which is not the case for the other candidates and if Gallup or Rasmussen added that question to the poll, that’s what the results would show. Now on to where our 7%-11% polling becomes huge.
If you take the 1,000 people questioned in the Gallup and Rasmussen polls and use the 2008 primary stat showing only a quarter will take part in the primary, you have 250 “active participants”. If 7%-14% are Ron Paul supporters and three quarters of them will vote then out of the 250 “active participants” polled, you have 21% to 42% of them voting for Ron Paul and that is what really counts. This number is clearly reflected by Ron Paul winning the straw polls and online debate polls with similar numbers to these, and sometimes even higher. Large sample size polls such as the TIME magazine poll reflect this.
The thing to remember is that when they post the Gallup and Rasmussen polls, only 25% of those people will be participating in the primary and that with Ron Paul’s strong support by all of us, his numbers are MUCH MUCH larger where it counts and that is in the “active participants” area that I mentioned above. I didn’t check the winner of the 2008 primaries in each state but I’m guessing with Ron Paul getting between 30 and 40 percent, he should be able to win the primary.
Just to sum up how we should view these "national polls" and to simplify the calculation process of how these polls should translate to the primaries (which will obviously vary state to state), take Ron Paul's number and 50% of his supporters vote, then you double his Gallup and Rasmussen numbers. If 75% of his supporters vote, then you triple it. This is where the great coordinated grassroots effort will win the primary, by doing the absolutely most important thing, voting and getting others to vote. The other candidates may be on TV all day, and that lets them leads the national polls but when comes down to winning the primary, the people watching Foxnews every night and then answering the phone for Rasmussen doesn't mean they are voting. And yes, I'm sure this is why the establishment is very scared, and cause of all of us with the avid support, they know we are all gonna vote cause one percent in the national polls for Paul equals every three percent for their candidates.