IowaSubmitted by hlm1796 on Thu, 12/08/2011 - 02:16
Let me preface this with: I am a Dr. Paul supporter. I have been a Dr. Paul supporter since 2008 (didn't know him prior).
I'm likely a dissenting voice on an Iowa victory (or one in any of the first 4 states). Then again -- Dr. Paul built his political career as a dissenting voice, so I could in worse company.
My skepticism is two fold. First: Iowa would likely be Pyrrhic. Bachmann and Cain did well in these sort of contests and flamed out off the campaign. This thing's a marathon, not a spring - to beat that cliche even more!
Second: For Dr. Paul to get this nomination the timing would have to be just right. There's a lot of money that simply doesn't want Dr. Paul to make it through. I'm afraid Peter Thiel, Peter Schiff, a great grassroots campaign, and the monthly money bomb just aren't enough of a counter-weight without momentum - at the opportune moment.
Ironically, I feel Gingrich is the best thing that could have happened to Dr. Paul right now. Hopefully, after Gingrich burns out someone else will come to the mantel (Santorum/Huntsman). Hopefully that will take us to late Spring. If Dr. Paul can start getting a few victories at that time, he may just catch lightning in a bottle and carry it through to the general election.
To be honest, I don't think a candidate can withstand the type of media blitzkrieg that Dr. Paul will get. He'll be attacked on the Lew Rockwell column and it will be spun every which way. When that doesn't bring Dr. Paul down, the organization will be hit hard. Frankly an incident like the one involving Tim Profitt isn't far fetched and can bring down an entire campaign - it almost killed Dr. Rand Paul's.