Internal Polls?
Posted January 2nd, 2008 by concise
output
I'm wondering if anyone knows if some of the candidates have spent their money on real polling for the upcoming Iowa caucus and NH primary, rather than relying on what they must know are these faulty media polls? (And if that's why Lindsay Graham of the McCain campaign brought up the Paul effect as did one of the other campaign's spokesman?)
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Any canvassers here?
What is the take from you guys hitting the streets door to door?
I wont reveal my source and
I wont reveal my source and this is hard for me to believe, but according to my source Paul has moved into 2nd place in Iowa in their latest internal poll (around 18% I heard.) Like I say, I dont know how accurate that is, but we shall find out come Thursday night wont we.
Havn't heard anything from New Hampshire except one person who went there to help reported back that there "is no way the campaign is only at 9%" in the state.
Thats what I know, Wrong or right, we shall find out very soon.
!
That would be pretty awesome!!!! Can't wait to find out!
Internal Polls
I live in New Hampshire. I've been polled by Romney and McCain. Romney asked if I was planning to vote in the primary and who I was planning to vote for. McCain asked if I was planning to vote in the primary. They then asked for my first choice in the primary and then for a second choice. For my second choice I gave them none of the above, which was the last selection.
As a side note, still lots of Ron Paul signs out there. No Rudy signs, I mean none. The Ron Paul plastic signs withstand the snowplowing and bounce back really well. McCain and Romney signs are cardboard and get easily burried in the snow. Fred Thompson signs are cheap paper and curl with any kind of moisture. They are useless after one or two days.
it seems like they must conduct some internal polls
at least the cold callers should have a better idea of the landscape, and the supporters we have on the ground too.
I think that some of the polls are getting closer to reality but cell phones are still not being polled and there are still major assumptions about the youth vote, independents and democratic crossovers. I believe that if the college students turn out we will experience a big bump. Also, it sounds like the Republicans are much less motivated than the Democrats in Iowa right now which works in our favor. I suspect that we have more like 12-16% of the vote going in : )
and we know that our people are more motivated than the average voter!
You are right about the
You are right about the motivated masses pulling for Paul, that is the gigantic unknown in this race.
Trust me, it is impossible
Trust me, it is impossible that only "we" are right and everyone else is wrong. That's the mark of an unstable person. I believe that some of the more recent in-depth polls are right... having said that, one must keep in mind that more than HALF of potential Republican voters remain undecided. HALF! This is an enormous advantage to our camp.
I disagree
Many times the minority is correct. Sometimes a minority of one person gets it right.
Way too much evidence of bias in the lame stream press polls to take them seriously. And conversely, way too much evidence of support for Ron Paul to ignore just because some polls say he is not doing well.
But we'll know the answer soon enough (assuming an honest vote count).
It's your right to disagree,
It's your right to disagree, but then why is the Paul campaign citing recent "official" polls as evidence of our message gaining ground? They wouldn't cite a poll unless they thought it bore some weight.
They are citing them because
They are citing them because that's what most of America knows as polls. They are being cautious, once we win a couple or place in the top three then they will start pointing to that and saying well the polls are not very accurate now are they. Until then they just show optimism and say they will do better then expected.
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If ever a time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in Government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin. Samuel Adams
Believe it or not... I am
Believe it or not... I am very optimistic! :)
Well...
As was explained in another post: the MSM polls some sample of the population. The problem is that their sample is not representative of the real "primary voting" population. So poll results do not reflect the real total population. They do, however, reflect some arbitrary segment of the population. So an increase in a MSM poll does in fact mean in increase in support - that is, an increase in support within the arbitrary segment of the population that the MSM polls. So, it is valid, in that sense.
I would think graham knows
I would think graham knows that his state is between huckleberry, mccain and paul and that he's coming from that angle. But I could be wrong. I'm from SC, and I have yet to see a yard sign other than Ron Paul. Well, there is one huckabee sign in the corner of a yard right beside some woods.. I can't tell if the guy's embarrassed to be a huck supporter or if the campaign put it down beside the guy's house to make it look like there is one.
No doubt
The people on the ground in Iowa, and New Hampshire, are questioning the polling big time.
Lindsey Graham with Wolf Blitzer sounded like he was backing the wrong candidate.
America is sick, call a doctor! Dr. Ron Paul.