Results: ..... WHO HAS TRUE VISION?
Posted January 2nd, 2008 by Overhaul-with-Paul
output
This poor Washington Post reporter has just posted his predictions (below) without listing Ron Paul.
Iowa Republicans:
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Thompson
4. McCain
5. Giuliani
New Hampshire, Republicans:
1. McCain
2. Romney
3. Huckabee
4. Giuliani
Full article at:
http://blog.washingtonpos...
**** Let’s try ours. Iowa, NH, first through fifth, include percentages if you really want to claim all the Prognosticative Glory*****
*************UPDATE***************
Dozens of DPers made predictions right before Iowa, see below: where would RP's campaign be today, Jan. 9th?
70% thought he would have finished first or second in Iowa or NH.
None predicted as low as 5th and 4th.
Verdict: call your eye doctor. We had no vision. We'd better get some fast or we'll never pursue the right strategies.
-JP
Bookmark/Search this post with:
no one was close unfortunately
see the comments
OK...
...who won bragging rights? :)
just iowa
romeny 28%
huck 25%
paul 22%
mcain 9%
thompson 5%
As promised this prediction poll just closed at noon est
We had several dozen responses. I'll gather them together.
-JP
Candidates peak at different times
Dr. Paul is not peaking now. That is fine.
McCain is starting to peak and Huck is finishing his peak. Thompson and Rudy have finished peaking and Mitt hasn't peaked yet.
IOWA
1)Huck
2)Mitt
3)Dr. Paul (tie with McCain)
3)McCain
4)Rudy
5)Thompson
NH
1)Mitt
2)McCain
3) Dr.Paul
4)Huck
5)Rudy
6)Thompson
If Thompson doesn't do well in SC he might drop out. Keep in mind that NOBODY is going to be in front by more than few delegates. This makes it hard to drop out and may keep everyone in.
QUIZ:
Is everyone staying in until the end good for Dr. Paul?
a) No it will keep the spotlight away from him.
b) No it will take votes away from him.
c) None of the above.
C is correct. Dr. Paul will not benefit from Rudy, Thompson or McCain dropping out. These men are too far to the right to offer Dr. Paul any votes.
Dr. Paul is going to get just enough coverage to keep building, but, with all six in the race the others will beat each other up...this is also good for Dr. Paul. These 5 men are TAKING VOTES AWAY FROM EACH OTHER. This is a miracle. WE WANT THEM ALL TO STAY IN AS IT PREVENTS ONE OF THEM FROM ESTABLISHING A LEAD.
So, believe it or not, root for Fred and Rudy to hang on . Dr. Paul needs to dilute the right wing vote and weaken Romney. This is good.
The doc has a good shot at 3rd in both. If McCain's surge effects that result it is GOOD for Dr. Paul. We want McCain to weaken Huck and Mitt...this is GOOD!
Keep your eye on the big picture. Despite rumors to the contrary, Dr. Paul has had 10% of the media coverage as the other men. As the doc gets some 3rd's and 4th's and a 2nd or two May will arrive and he'll be right in the middle of it.
EYE ON THE PRIZE. Go McCain! Kick Mitt's and Huck's and Rudy's and Fred's butts! Fight over the right wing vote...we love it!
This is politics NOT EMOTIONS. This is the first 5 minutes of a basketball game. IT DOES NOT MATTER WHO IS AHEAD NOW. Minneapolis matters.
We want it more than they do. We will win in the end.
T
Dilute the right wing vote? You mean the traitorous neocon vote
John McCain is best buddies with John Kerry and Joe Lieberman and he votes very, very liberal as well. He and Huckleberry are taking the liberal and neocon vote (too many Bible thumpers think they are conservative when they are, in fact, liberal in absolutely every way except they don't like premarital sex).
These Are Going To Be the Numbers
Iowa:
Huckabee 28%
Romney 24%
Paul 20%
McCain 12%
Thompson 8%
Giuliani 6%
Hunter 2%
New Hampshire:
Paul 28%
McCain 26%
Romney 25%
Giuliani 9%
Huckabee 7%
Thompson 3%
Hunter 2%
McCain has no organization in Iowa. Plus he’ll throw about 1500 votes to Huckabee to insure his win. Ron, will double his final day polling as we all know. Tonight the media will be scratching their heads, but what they don’t realize is that on the GOP side Ron’s Iowa organization is 2nd only to Romney’s. What would be nice is an extremely low turnout due to the Huckabee/Romney pissing contest. In this case 2nd for Ron may be possible.
the fix is on
I've looked at 3 MSM print articles this morning & no Ron Paul in any..not a word..
Ok here goes.. I am usually pessimistic but not today.
In light of all I have read, heard, seen, experienced and absorbed through these past months after summing it all up, I think it is now finally time for me to believe I can be optimistic. And far more so than normal.
I predict for Iowa and New Hampshire..
Ron Paul by a very unexpected landslide of possibly close to 40%.
Mitt Romney close to 20%
Mike Huckabee around 15%
John McCain around 10%
Thompson also around 10%
Rudy Guiliani close to 9%
(Give or take a few either way)
What creates my prediction here is the vigor and zeal of the Paulites. All of you, and the uninhibited loyalty and dedication you have all given. Hard work always pays off. We all know this. We have been well above and beyond hard work. I believe we will see the beginning of our payoff.
30 days
I'm not getting too excited by a win or a fourth place finish in Iowa or New Hampshire. I have to get Florida in good shape to blow Rudy away. No rest until after Super Tuesday on Feb. 5th. I'm thinking South Carolina and Nevada could be very solid wins for Ron Paul.
I do agree Mike6ft9in
It is rare for me to feel optimistic. I am even having trouble believing what my mind is telling me. Something is just there. In the back of my mind. Like I said, I don't believe it, but I have a hunch there are a lot of undecideds sitting on the fence, given the sickening choices there are this time, that will make their decision today. I would bet that those that have been leary of committing would likely gravitate to Paul. PS Mike, I am in Florida also.. : ) so that's a little less shaping you gotta do.
Don't forget Hunter
Iowa:
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Paul
4. McCain
5. Thompson
6. Giuliani
7. Hunter
New Hampshire:
1. McCain
2. Romney
3. Paul
4. Giuliani
5. Huckabee
6. Hunter
(Thompson dropped out after Iowa)
2+ hours til polls close on your predictions.
Get on the record now if you haven't.
Who has TRUE vision, not only predicting Iowa, but Iowa's effect on NH.
-JP
Here in Black and White
Iowa Republicans:
1. Paul
2. Romney
3. Huckabee
4. McCain
5. Thompson
New Hampshire, Republicans:
1. Paul
2. Romney
3, McCain
4. Giuliani
Sorry Huck - but the Gomer Pile meets Mussolini act just aint gonna cut it in the "Live Free or Die State".
look at the straw polls
He has the most wins and finishes in the top 3 most of the time. I might be biased watching the Ron Paul ad while Huckabee tries his best on Leno and say he stays the course at most number 1 spots with a few 2nd and 3rds.
If votes are counted correctly
Ron Paul 38% in Iowa and 42% in NH of course wins both, Independent surge is the reason, they LOVE the Freedom message !!!!!
One thing is for sure
Ghouliani and Fredneck will have poor showings... and RON PAUL WILL SURPRISE!
I feel it will be Ron and Mittens head to head all the way to the convention. Minneapolis is a nice place to be in the Fall, and I think things will get interesting up there ...
Ok I'm in before bed
Iowa
Paul - 30%
Romney - 23%
Huckleberry - 21%
Goolinai - 9%
Thompson - 9%
McCan't - 8%
NH (Live free or die baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
Paul - 98%
Other - 2%
He was obviously a social sciences major...
Iowa:
Huckabee: 24%
Romney: 22%
Paul: 19%
McCain: 16%
Guiliani: 8%
Thompson: 6%
Guiliani: 5%
Hunter: .005%
New Hampshire:
Ron Paul: 34%
Romney: 23%
McCain: 21%
Huckabee: 11%
Guiliani: 7%
Thompson: 4%
Hunter Drops Out
Late night predictions, make your late night predictions here
-JP
Posted earlier today
I made my picks this morning on this blog: http://thirdpartywatch.co...
Thanks bjneiman for the updated poll numbers. I just heard that figure of 15,000 confirmed caucus goers from my district chair an hour or so ago, but I didn't know where it came from. I hope its accurate because that is almost a guaranteed third and anyone who comes out on a whim or has escaped the pollsters just closes the margin to 2nd.
1st BAYYYYBEEE
He's coming in first im tellin ya!
Dr. Paul --- 3rd
Dr. Paul --- 3rd Place.
Romney is going to bus in thousands and thousands of supporters like he did for the Straw Poll. These people are pretty hardcore.
Tomorrow, Huckabee will probably claim to have authored the Sermon on the Mount and evangelicals will hail his presidency as the Second Coming.
I really don't think there is any way to beat them but I truly believe we will beat out McCain and everyone else for third. I would gladly welcome Dr. Paul and his Iowa supporters to prove me wrong, however. :-)
My thoughts
Since I now know that the Iowa Rep caucus is like a strawpoll and since Dr Paul has done so well with strawpolls:
Dr Paul 1st and the lowest I see him is 2nd place. The rest of the candidates, I have no clue because they haven't been handling themselves too well lately and Dr Paul is the one with the huge grassroots movement all over the country. Hope I'm right and we'll know tomorrow night.
I'm looking into my crystal ball right now
I see the Iowa flag, it is waving proudly. I see...you've got to be kidding me! Does anyone have a 9volt battery?
Paul for 3rd in Iowa
I predict 20,000 Caucus goers turn out for Paul. (This number is based on an auto-dial phone poll (landline) of every registered Iowa Republican that said they are likely to caucus for Paul + guesstimates for cell phone users and party switchers)
With a turnout between 80,000 and 100,000 that gives a percentage of:
20% - 25%
That figure is more likely to net a 3rd place finish than a 2nd --though not impossible.
The phone poll referenced
The phone poll referenced above gave us 15,000 likely caucus goers
What do you guys think that
What do you guys think that a 20% - 25% result will place Paul? 2nd or 3rd?
I'll make it simple
IA and NH:
Ron Paul > 26%
The Thugs<16%
Dems: Obama wins, Princess Hillary gets really mad!
JB
what about the Dems?
and who will it be most difficult for Dr. Paul to take down in the general?
Democrats
1st Obama
2nd Edwards
3rd Clinton
As far as who would be the most difficult for Dr Paul to take down, NONE of the Democrats.
So far the biggest discrepancy among us
is how McCain fares.
-JP
lol those washpost numbers
lol those washpost numbers are FUNNY! they should all be fired for sucking. If i were this bad at predicting solutions/problems at my job id be HISTORY!
1 huck
2 paul
3 romney
4 mccain
5 thompson
6 giuliani
NH
1. romney
2. paul
3. mccain
4. giuliani
5. huckabee
6. thompson
Iowa 1. Paul 2. Romney 3.
Iowa
1. Paul
2. Romney
3. Huckabee
4. Giuliani
5. McCain
Of course this is if the elections are clean
Iowa Republicans:
1. Paul 34%
2. Romney 19%
3. Huckabee 17%
4. McCain 12%
5. Giuliani 9%
6. Thompson 2%
7. other 7%
New Hampshire, Republicans:
1. Paul 37%
2. McCain 22%
3. Romney 18%
4. Huckabee 16 %
5. Giuliani 4%
6. Thompson 3%
Iowa
Paul 18%
RP gets 9% neocon vote 90%
RP gets 9% neocon vote 90% independent/dems overall 55% other 45% who cares
the prognosticator
IOWA
huck 28%
rom 26%
Paul 18%
McCain 13%
Thompson 8%
Giuliani 6%
Hunter 1%
NH
Paul 22%
McCain 21%
Romney 19%
Huck 16%
Giuliani 12%
Thompson 9%
Hunter 1%
Overhaul's 10 year old son makes his first-ever blog post
Matthew predicts:
**IOWA
Romney, 30%
Huckabee, 27%
Paul, 13%
Thompson, 10%
McCain, 8%
Giuliani, 7%
Others, 5%
**NH
McCain, 26%
Paul, 23%
Romney, 21%
Huckleberry, 15%
Giuliani, 10%
Others, 5%
-JP (& Matthew)
My prediction
Faux is being nice to Paul which is a signal for in-the-know neocons to switch their votes to Paul. The Huckster is D-U-N done. Come March, McCain drops out. Thompson is my 2nd favorite candidate because of comedic value what with the hot wife and legendary laziness so I hope he stays around for awhile.
In Iowa:
1. Ron Paul 30%
2. Romney 23%
3. Huckster 22%
4. McCain 11%
5. Thompson 9%
6. Julie Annie 5%
why not - oooooommm
Iowa
1 - Huck - 28
2. Romney - 24
3. Paul - 18
4. McCain - 15
5. Thompson - 8
6. Ghouliani - 8
New Hampshire
1. Paul - 32
2. McCain - 29
3. Romney - 20
4. Huck -11
5. Ghouliani - 8
6. Keyes - 2
7. Thompson - 0.1
I also predict that after NH Thompson, and Romney Drop out.
Iowa
Iowa
Romney 26
Huckleberry 26
RP 23
McCain 13
Thompson 8
Rudy 4
NH
RP 33
Romney 26
McCain 20
Rudy 10
Huckleberry 8
Thompson 3
Iowa and New Hampshire GOP Predictions
Iowa GOP Primary (01/03/08) Prediction:
Romney - 28%
Huckabee - 25%
Paul - 21%
McCain - 12%
Thompson - 8%
Giuliani - 4%
Hunter - 1%
Keyes - 1%
Paul places 3rd in Iowa.
--------------
New Hampshire GOP Primary (01/08/08) Prediction:
McCain - 29%
Paul - 26%
Romney - 18%
Giuliani - 14%
Huckabee - 7%
Thompson - 4%
Hunter - 1%
Keyes - 1%
Paul places 2nd in New Hampshire.
http://img154.imageshack....
This is how it will go
Iowa Republicans:
1. Paul
2. Romney
3. Huckabee
4. McCain
5. Giuliani
6. Thompson
New Hampshire, Republicans:
1. Paul
2. McCain
3. Romney
4. Huckabee
5. Giuliani
6. Thompson
Rhino's picks
IOWA
Romney 25
Paul 23
Huckabee 22
Mccain 13
Thompson 9
Giuliani 8
NH
Paul 25
Romney 20
McCain 19
Giuliani 14
Huck 13
Thompson 9
IOWA (only)Paul= 31%Huck
IOWA (only)
Paul= 31%
Huck = 21%
Romney= 21%
Ghuli- 12%
McCaine= 14%
Keyes=1%
Tim
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What happened to Thompson?
Are you predicting that the 5 Thompson true believers will not show up?
Just for the Record
Let's observe that the Washington Post reporter who doesn't believe Ron Paul has any chance in Iowa or New Hampshire is Joel Achenbach. That's JOEL ACHENBACH. :)
Back for more --- who wants to get ON THE RECORD
- JP
This is my vision!
Iowa:
Ron Paul: 27%
Romney: 25%
Huckabee: 23%
McCain: 12%
Thompson: 7%
Guiliani: 5%
Hunter: 1%
New Hampshire:
Ron Paul: 31%
Romney: 22%
McCain: 18%
Huckabee: 15%
Guiliani: 8%
Thompson: 6%
Hunter Drops Out
Mike
Who is Ron Paul? I am Ron Paul! We are Ron Paul!
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