48 votes

Upcoming - Maine, 2nd Half of the 1st Quarter...

As you know, Maine released the results of about 84% of their caucus events and declared Mitt Romney the winner, by 194 votes. This is a short note to put this in perspective. First, there is another county yet to vote, and 16%+ of the precincts statewide are not accounted for in the straw poll. I expect we shall see a large turnout tomorrow in Washington County, and Ron Paul will probably "win" his first state, in the eyes of the media. Second, this is another glaring example of bias by the establishment party against those with new ideas. Iowa, Nevada, and I'm even seeing reports of biased algorithms in New Hampshire and South Carolina are all pointing to "rigging" or "fraud" or just flat out manipulation. Whatever you call it, the attempt has been made to control the narrative of who is winning, and it has been somewhat successful. And finally third, and most importantly -

The Straw Poll does not matter.

Delegates matter.

The media and political pundits, the elite and the establishment can spin this any way they want. The fact is that right now there are 59 delegates for Romney, 23 delegates for Gingrich, 3 delegates for Paul, 0 delegates for Santorum, and THAT IS ALL. Romney is also going to get challenged for those 50 from Florida as well, since there's an RNC rule that makes them proportional. See my other post (http://www.capitalistsooner.blogspot.com/2012/02/republics-d...) for a complete breakdown of the delegates.

Compare politics to football. The 1st quarter is the Precinct Meeting (which Maine is in the middle of right now). Delegates are usually chosen here to go to the next "quarter", and people sign up for committees such as Rules, Credentials, and Platform. Rules are the rules that govern the next convention, Credentials determine who can and who can't attend the next convention, and the Platform is a statement of what the party believes, that moves up the process until a final one is settled on at the National Convention.

The 2nd quarter is the County Convention. Again, you have delegates chosen to move on, and you have the three committees that people volunteer for at the next stop.

The 3rd quarter is the District Convention. Think of this as the delegates based on Congressional Districts. In my state (Oklahoma) there are 3 delegates chosen from each of the 5 Congressional Districts who go to the National, along with 3 alternates, for a total of 15 delegates and 15 alternates.

The 4th quarter is the State Convention. Again you have delegates, but this time you have delegates that represent the State at the National Convention (along with the District Delegates, who of course represent the Congressional Districts). Using my state again as an example, there are 25 delegates and 25 alternates from Oklahoma.

The Super Bowl is where all the delegates from all the State and District Conventions (43 from Oklahoma, 24 from Maine, etc.) gather and select the nominee for the Republican Party. This year, Tampa, Florida gets to hold the GOP Super Bowl from August 27th to August 30th. There are 2286 GOP delegates that will be chosen, sometimes in a caucus (like Maine, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, and Nevada so far) and sometimes in a primary (New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida so far). You need 1144 to win the nomination - and there are only 85 that have been chosen and are bound to vote a certain way, for a certain candidate, as of this posting. The final total of delegates for a state will not be known until that state has played all 4 quarters.

Keep your powder dry, we're just getting started - and keep going to those Conventions!




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The Straw Poll DOES matter

That is why the media and establishment are trying so hard to cheat, misinform, ignore, and misrepresent the straw polls.

They have a huge psychological effect which carries on into the rest of the election, including the election of delegates.

EXACTLY

Washington County Maine Can Effect The National Narrative in the GOP Race
http://bit.ly/zWsybW

Good analogy

But you are incorrectly leaving Nevada out of the hard delegate count. You seem to be confusing delegate selection and delegation allocation or binding.

Your four-quarter analogy shows how delegates are selected. That is, how the actual people who will attend the convention are elected in a series of votes out of the pool of all party members who attend the first stage of the process (caucus, convention, or mass political meeting depending on the state).

But delegate allocation is often separate. Most primary states allocate the bulk of their delegates to candidates based on the primary vote. Some caucus states allocate them based on the caucus presidential preference poll (like Nevada). These delegates are thus bound before the actual people who will be those delegates are selected.

Iowa and many other caucus states never allocate or bind delegates. They merely select delegates and let them vote for whomever they want. Some primary states also leave a portion of their delegates unallocated. Typically these are the 3 automatic delegates (national committeemen and state chairman), but some states allow more delegates to go unpledged. Some primary states like New York allocate all their delegates, but some portion is not based on the primary result but on the wishes of the state convention or the party's executive committee.

So your hard delegate count should include Nevada since they have allocated, though not selected, their delegates (same as SC, Florida, and NH): Romney 73, Gingrich 29, Paul 8, Santorum 3.

Steve Dickson's picture

My bad - this is what I get

My bad - this is what I get for posting during my lunch break instead of spending more time at night to do it. Thanks for the correction!

Steve

Sharpton on MSNBC did rip Webster a new one tonight -

will try to find youtube of it when I get some time, it was good!

God grants liberty only to those who love it, and are always ready to guard and defend it. – Daniel Webster

I just uploaded the Al Sharpton segment on Maine

Thanks for the heads up on this.

http://bit.ly/xdRwZm

It's the STATE DELEGATES that matter~~not just "delegates"

However, if we can OVERWHELM the RINOS in NUMBERS, then, we have a realistic chance of winning the STATE DELEGATES, because they won't have enough votes to offset the RP votes.

It's a number's game, when it comes right down to it, and the RINOS have a stalwart faithful group of active Republicans in every state. Can we outnumber them? That remains to be seen. Have we grown in numbers? YES, so we'll see what happens.

The FIRST LINE OF DEFENSE is the precincts where the precinct people vote for the delegates who go to the county who vote for delegates who go to the State who vote for the State delegates.

I believe this is the process, correct me if I'm wrong.

"The media and political

"The media and political pundits, the elite and the establishment can spin this any way they want. The fact is that right now there are 59 delegates for Romney, 23 delegates for Gingrich, 3 delegates for Paul, 0 delegates for Santorum, and THAT IS ALL."

This statement is extremely misleading. Ron Paul is almost certainly in control of a lot more of the county delegates which have been elected than the others.

The fact is, most of the states haven't elected their delegates, even if they've voted. And anyone who says otherwise hasn't done the most basic form of research on how the delegate selection process works. The projections you see around are nothing more. They are GUESSES and indeed, not even educated ones.

The delegates are not even selected yet! There are only county delegates, who will ultimately face elimination rounds until you come up with actual delegates.

There is NO DOUBT WHATSOEVER that Ron Paul controls a lot more of these county delegates than the media wants you to believe. They are in constant contact with the Paul campaign, and the campaign has released percentages (usually well over 50) for a lot of the states. There is no reason for them to lie.

Freedom in our lifetime! - fiol.us

"In Minnesota, where Paul

"In Minnesota, where Paul nabbed 27 percent of the caucus vote, the Paul campaign estimates that 75 percent of the current delegates are Paul supporters. In Colorado, where Paul got 12 percent of the vote, 50 percent of the delegates are Paul supporters."

http://www.ronpaul2012.com/2012/02/16/ron-pauls-delegate-adv...

Freedom in our lifetime! - fiol.us

These are only the "lowest"

These are only the "lowest" ranks of delegates. No doubt, the party will try every trick to diminish that numbers.

Fox News Blackout on Maine Vote Fraud

This GOP Vote Fraud story has not been covered by FAUX as far as I can tell. Been watching all day. Probably scrambling for sell-able spin. Complicity is becoming obvious.
Where is the FBI?

None of them are talking about it

Rachel Maddow is the only one that has mentioned it.

Ben Swann on his show "Reality Check" broke the story first.

Maddow cherry picked that story and sent her own a day later, If you like your news fresh and honest, watch Ben Swann, on believe it or not, FOX 19 WXIX. Google either him or the station or go to his FB page for updates.

Now it's about the Constitution and the fight to defend it.

Sharpton did a segment about

Sharpton did a segment about it as well. And there's Ben Swann on Fox 19 (regional, I know).
There has been articles in Chicago Tribune and LA Times by the same author, but that's about it.

Bugs in the machine's picture

Been watching all day?

How can you stomach it?

By claiming there is no conspiracy, you prove to those who believe in the conspiracy that you are part of the conspiracy.

LWherre is the FBI

Making plans to shut down the internet March 8th to promote more voter fraud.