NEW HAMPSHIRE PREDICTIONS -Here are mine, what are yours?

- but now it's come to my attention that the voting procedures in NH aren't secure - 80% of the results are hackable. So, I figure they'll let him have 3rd or 4th place. Let him do just well enough that the results reflect the land-line polls and we all don't make too big of a fuss, but badly enough that Ron Paul will not gain any ground.

fred thompson will get under 6%, ron paul will get over 13%, very close for romney mccain

Ron Paul for President 2008

These are actual results from two towns of about 58 people:

McCain 38%
Romney 21%
Huckabee 17%
Paul 14%
Giuliani 10%

Paul - 45-70%
Rest of the field - dead in the water

"Every generation needs a new revolution" ~Jefferson

Join ours - http://www.ronpaul2008.co...

McCain 31%
Romney 23%
Paul 19%
Thompson 14%
Guilliani 7%
Hunter 6%

Tim
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Military for Ron Paul meet-up Group
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From ronpaul2008 site:

Ames, Iowa 8/11/2007 = 9.1%
Actual Iowa Vote = 10%

New Hampshire Taxpayers 7/07/2007 = 65.3%
Strafford County, NH 8/18/2007 = 72.2%
New Hampshire Taxpayers 7/07/2007 = 65.3%

Is it too simple to believe these polls?
Or have we started to Believe the MSM?

Romney 1st - Ron Paul 2nd - I think people are going to reject McCain and his 100 years of war statement - not to mention his snarky behavior in the last real debate - and he'll come in 3rd.

Here we go:

Romney 33%
McCain 31%
Paul 13%
Huckabee 11%
McCain 8%
Thompson 3%
Hunter 1%

Paul improves 3% and finishes two positions higher than Iowa

Paul 31%
McCain 21%
Romeny 17%
Huckabee12%
Thompsons 8%
Mickey Mouse 6%
Rudy 3%
Hunter 2%

Liberty = Responsibility

45% of NH voters are indep, 35% are Republicans and 20% are Dems...Split the Indep voters with McInsane, Obama, and Paul...now Rp gets the 30% of Repubs that are anti war and voila you get RP getting 25.5 %...

"It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once"...
David Hume

Assumptions:

- NH polls are further off than Iowa, due to independent tendency of NH voters, a younger median age voter than Iowa, higher percentage of first time voters, much more tech savvy populace (cell phone and Internet factor), and very significant and outspoken libertarian base not being polled
- Independent vote goes mostly to McCain and Paul
- NH voters tend to reject evangelical religious messages, but Huckabee's momentum will help him a bit
- Very warm weather results in high turnout, diluting the impact of Paul's base significantly
- NH loves low tax messages! They have no sales tax and no personal income tax, for those not familiar with the state

1. McCain 29%
2. Romney 28%
3. Paul 18%
4. Huckabee 10%
5. Giuliani 8%
6. Thompson 4%
7. Hunter 3%

... and for the record, I spend time tonight converting several Nashua NH voters who weren't even planning to vote. The massive collection of grassroots videos and relevant clips are very, very helpful. Thanks to everyone who has spent time on these over the months.

In Dixville Notch, the libertarian won outright in 1992! Expect Paul to do very well in this first return in a few minutes.

Anything can happen. For what its worth, I think the fact that Iowa's result, and the fact that it matched up nicely with the MSM polls was a fluke. It had a lot to do with the fact that the Iowa caucuses were dominated (as they always have been) by old people and bible thumpers. If there's one thing that the polls definitely did measure in Iowa, its the old people and the evangelicals who have land lines and always vote.

In NH, its a different story because the demographics are very different, the process is different, and the number of people in each category (democrat, republican, independent), are also totally different than Iowa. However the polls are done the same way in NH as they are in Iowa and anywhere else.

So, if we're going to see something very different happen than what was predicted in the polls, it'll probably happen in NH.

I like the contrarian position, because the crowd is usually wrong. Ron Paul in 1st or 2nd place in NH, and who cares how well the other failed candidates fare.

I feel an upset coming. Not sure who will be upset but I don't think it will be us.

I predict 4th. I predicted 4th for Iowa and he came in 5th. Using the same instinct I would predict 3rd for NH, but since I overestimated in Iowa I'm going go to go against my instinct and adjust downward and say 4th in NH.

I hope I'm wrong!

I predict 4th. I predicted 4th for Iowa and he came in 5th. Using the same instinct I would predict 3rd for NH, but since I overestimated in Iowa I'm going go to go against my instinct and adjust downward and say 4th in NH.

I hope I'm wrong!

I'm not qualified to make a prediction. I'm pretty darn sure Ron's numbers will improve on Iowa's 10% though... 3rd would be very good, as would 20%.

--

Son_Of_Liberty (formerly known as hippychimp...)

carpe libertatem

100 yr. war, McCain: 31%
The Man, Ron Paul: 24%
Rominator: 22%
Huckster: 10%
Rudeness: 8%
Galute: 4%
Hunter: 1%

we should all just chill and wait until tomorrow. nevermind predictions. i'll admit, i'm very tempted to stay up all night trying to figure out what Paul's numbers will be, but it will probably only create pre-conveived ideas that will end up throwing realism out the window.

so much as they are volatile. If Ron Paul could go from 14% down to 8% in 2 days, its just as possible he could get back up to 14 in 2 days. Just as possible, Huck's #s could change for the worse and moderate indys leaning towards McCain or Romney might switch over to Hillary.

The polls aren't so much wrong as people do change their minds. And they have, if the changes in the past several days (wrt Hillary, Barak, McCain and Romney as well as Paul) are to be believed.

Strong campaigning today, the town hall meeting yesterday, and a strong performance on Leno tonight could pull back a lot of support from Obama or Edwards.

The Polls wouldn't be "wrong." But people would have changed their minds over 2 days as they have in the past.

Does anyone know if there is going to be an audit of the votes cast by the campaign?

Paul NEEDS to get 3rd to stay in this.

Instead of sitting around prognosticating where this will all end up tomorrow, why don't you all go do something possitve and most importantly, CONCRETE for the Paul movement!

I'm sorry...but after Iowa, and after a similar post regarding where Dr. Paul would place, after all was said and done, half here felt down and half here felt optimistic...but nearly all thought this type of time wasting was pointless!

"Whenever I despair, I remember that the way of truth and love has always won. There may be tyrants and murderers, and for a time, they may seem invincible, but in the end, they always fail. Think of it: always"
Gandhi

...so will I.

1st: Romney, 32%
2nd: Paul, 22%
3rd: McCain, 19%
4th: Huckabee, 15%
5th: Giuliani, 7%
6th: Thompson, 3%
7th: Hunter, 1%
8th: Keyes, asterisk, shares last 1% with everybody else.

"Welcome to 2008: The Year of Ron Paul!"

People need to go out and vote, no RP vote left behind!

Ron Paul will be 3rd. If we're lucky, 2nd. All the polls are showing Ron around 3rd and remember the Iowa polls were showing him in a bad place, yet he got 10% of the votes. So let's hope to follow this and say Ron will get 2nd.

But more realistically he'll get 3rd.

I think he'll win Paul second McCain 3rd thompson 4th Huck 5th

Give me Liberty or Give me death

I think Ron Paul will take 3rd maybe second.

The RON Paul radio add campaign has been absolutely DREADFULL. The same immigration add ten times a day for a MONTH! Romney and Guliani have a new and effective adds every other day! If RP finishes worse than third here send any money for RP support to other avenues besides the official campaign! The official radio add campaign has surpassed incompetence and is bordering on treasonous!

All of the newspaper have endorsed McCain and have not posted any well articulated letters attacking McCain. McCain won NH in 2000 but I don't think he will do as well in this semi conservative state. Romney has been exposing his awfull record on the radio.

I will be working for Paul in the trenches tomorrow.

I think Ron Paul will draw more independents than Guilliani, Thompson or Huckabee and come in third behind Romney and McCain.

Prior to Iowa I put down:

Iowa:
Huckabee 35%
Romney 25%
Paul 20%
McCain 15%
Thompson 5%

NH:
Paul 30%
McCain 25%
Romney 20%
Huckabee 15%
Giuliani 5%
Thomspon 5%

I honestly felt that Ron Paul beating McCain was going to be CRUCIAL in Iowa, and would propell him to legitimacy.....VERY similarly to how Obama beating Clinton gave him "legitimacy". Look at how fast THAT freight train has left the station.

Unfortunately, for various reasons (some of which I am pretty pissed off about), Dr. Paul did NOT beat McCain. We have all witnessed the "legitimacy" in the rise of McCain since.

So......

UPDATED New Hampshire prediction:

McCain 30%
Romney 25%
Huckabee 20%
Giuliani 10%
Paul 10%
Thompson 5%

We MUST beat Huckabee in this state, and come in at LEAST third to have a shot at WINNING.

I'm well aware of this being a 50 state race, but I have seen absolutely NO signs that the "official" campaign has that (or much else) in mind. I have also come to see the importance of MOMENTUM in this rapid-fire primary season. We need some victories over the "chosen few" NOW.

WINNERS BEFORE FEB 5TH
Huckabee - Iowa
Romney - Wyoming
McCain - NH
Romney - Michigan
Ron Paul - Nevada
Giuliani - Florida
Huckabee - South Carolina

5 way race into February 5th.....IF we finish top three in NH. If Huckabee beats us there, watch out. I'll put my money on him to win the whole thing.
Just my two cents...no hard feelings, please.

Let's get serious people.

Third is the best Ron can do.
Fifth is the worst Ron can do.

The last two Iowa polls were correct. They predicted Paul at 9-10%. Ron Paul won 10% of the vote.

This is what scares me. Ron Paul's poll numbers in New Hampshire are WORSE than he had Iowa in these final days.

Iowa had 40% independents in their electorate. So lets kill that argument.

What people don't understand is that pollsters SKEW their results for cell phones.

But for a moment lets accept that there are a lot of cell phone only users in New Hampshire. When they poll these polls....they poll about 1000 people.

So 8% polling = 80 people
10% = 100 people
20% = 200 people
30% = 300 people

So when they say the poll has a margin of error of 3-4%, that's saying they might be off 30-40 people. 50% off the mark!

So when people on here say Ron isn't really polling at 8%, instead he's polling at say 16% or 25%...what you're saying is that pollsters are off by
80 to 170 people out of 1000. On top of that you are saying that the other polls which poll another 1000 people are also off by 80 - 170 people. So you're saying they are off the mark by 100-200% vs. their 50% margin of error.

Do you see how insane that sounds?

I am HOPING that Ron is at the higher end of the margin of error 11%, but my guess is that he's instead at 10 - 10.5% and will get fifth again.

I am hoping Ron at least gets fourth. He'll make the CNN pie chart then, he'll make the Fox scrolling top four candidate list. If Ron gets 5th in a libertarian state, I feel its going to be all over for Ron. That means independents simply want someone else.

Hoping for the best, but expecting the worse based on Iowa polls and the Iowa voting reality that followed.

My point is this: Ron polls at 7-9% in New Hampshire and therefore he will NOT get over 13% of the vote. No way. No how. Nada.

If I'm wrong, I'll kiss Hillary. ugh...