Brokered Convention will happen!! Firewalls and Surge Protectors
Submitted by bedr1 on Wed, 01/09/2008 - 11:39
Mike Huckabee won Iowa, McCain won NH and neither of them will win South Carolina - Look for Romney or last place in NH Fred Thompson to do well in South Carolina.
Look for Ron Paul to do well in Michigan and Nevada. This will be a brokered convention there is no doubt - even the media is now saying look for this to go all the way to the convention floor.
The golden boy for the Republican establishment is still Rudy - He will do well in Florida right before Super Tuesday claiming momentum, its his so called firewall.
There has to be a good showing by Ron Paul late in one of these state races. before Super Tuesday. We need a (SPS) Surge Protector State before Super Tuesday.
Do we choose Michigan or Nevada?
I think they both have potential
Pro:
Nevada is Libertarian leaning already and a state that Ron Paul is already polling well in. He has a nice operation there and has been there many times. There is more time to make this a SPS
Con: Its next door to Utah - Romney is also doing well there
Michigan
Pro: The Democrats are not pushing in Michigan and Ron Paul
could capture a significant amount of anti-war vote. - Michigan is
a large anti-war state, largest Muslim population in the United States
economy is the worst in the United States - Paul has a unique position to capture anti-war votes and talk about his economic policies and how it will help Michigan workers and residents.
Ron Paul campaign has a large operation there, but they are somewhat disorganized.
Con: Less time to make this a SPS, will Anti War Democrats come out and support Ron Paul?
What say you? Which state should we focus on? Which state should be our SPS
If we can do well in one state like everyone else, Super Tuesday will be up for grabs and this will go to the convention where our intense supporter base can make the difference with delegates.
Do people
really believe these are viable ideas? Are they not "pie in the sky"? I have a hard time believing otherwise. Even if it does become a brokered convention, how would Paul still come out victorious? What will happen is people who are for Mccain, Giuliani, Huckabee, and Romney will all somehow make a deal like politicians always do. It is far reaching to believe the interpersonal clashes between all those groups will somehow result in a victory for the guy standing by watching. Their supporters are not going to suddenly change their minds just like we are not going to change our minds.
Nevertheless, my instinct is that in the next month a candidate will emerge and thus the only other option Paul will have is a third party run. A third party is near impossible for anyone however but it is worth trying at least to perpetuate the paramount importance of the message.
Here s a Firewall.
check this out.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vaCYEEO-58I
Who knows him better than his peers?
Montana Winner-take-all Maximum Delegates for Minimum Effort 25
Montana is on 2/5 and Ron Paul is just about winning there.
The other candidates will stupidly spend all their time in Florida in January.
Ron Paul should brave the cold of Montana and take all 25 delegates in the winner take all on 2/5.
Montana can be a guaranteed win and RP can make side-trips to Nevada while declaring his HQ to be Montana from now until 2/5.
The Montanans would love him for having his temporary HQ there. They would see that he wants to represent them and not Floridians.
Obviously, RP needs to wave the (Confederate?) flag in South Carolina during the next week as well. They would love him for the comment about Lincoln being a tyrant. That whole issue is not about slavery but about States Rights. The entire south can be secured if that point is made. Ron Paul is going to want to do a South-West-Pacific strategy to win overall.
And he needs to whistle-stop Michigan on the NAU issue. But Michigan will not vote for him in the general like SC, Nevada and Montana would.
I would have him spend only one day in Florida this month. Julie Annie will go to the convention with a bunch of Florida, New York and New Jersey delegates (Neocon delegates).
I agree. I don't see how we
I agree. I don't see how we are going to do well in Michigan. Why was Dr. Paul not there on Wednesday? Why not there today and then fly to SC in time for the debate. I think the campaign is ignoring Michigan.
We are not helping ourselves with the decisions being made. I have contacted the campaign concerning this.
Again the campaign has left the grassroots to do all the work. Maybe the paid staff needs to go home and let the grassroots do the work. We seem to have more of the ideas. They seem to be along for the ride.
We can do it
We need to win in Nevada, second in Michigan and second atleast in Florida.
Do well in Michigan?
The author of this blog, is out of touch.
The campaign has and is ignoring Michigan. No tv ads, and some tv ads are set to run the day after the election, amazingly. We can't figure that one out.
The grassroots here, has been told time and again, that literature would be coming in, and would never show.
4 offices opened a month before the elections, and these offices, really serve no purpose here, they have no phones and not literature, and the 25,000 signs delivered are being sent out to precinct captains immediately after they were delivered.
Michigan could have been won, if the proper attention was given early on, as in New Hampshire.
How well we do in other states, depends upon the campaign headquarters, to air tv ads in other states along with radio, and direct mail.
Grassroots only goes so far, most people still don't even know who ron paul is.
Michigan Patriot
we're still trying our hardest
Correct that grassroots can only go so far but we're doing our best here to get the word out. The people at the detroit office seem uninformed and disinterested but I've met others in that office, like me, that are not and will not give up!
we need to do our best in both states
If each of us reaches 5 people it will make a difference.
We can use Facebook, MySpace, answers.yahoo.com, dating sites, local news etc to reach people in MI and NV
But please, let's try to stay away from mass mailings. Pick a few people and try to personalize your message. Let's not throw our rifles into barley field yet.
I smell a McCain Giuliani ticket
and I can't think of anything worse!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ron Paul 2008
Then Dr. Paul needs to run
Then Dr. Paul needs to run 3rd party. There are a lot of folks who will not support McCain or Guliani and they want vote for Hillary or Obama either. It would be a perfect opportunity to get support if he were running against these.
Where are the religious right voters going? They can't vote for either of these tickets.
cnn poll
89% said they would support a 3rd party run,no matter who the canidate(independants)
there isn't enough time to make a concensus. Do what you can.
AND:
I highly recommend that we avoid high-publicity sign waving... the media will not bother to get out the vote if they don't see us making our presence known.
dCarr, I don't follow you:
dCarr, I don't follow you: you recommend we avoid high publicity sign waving, then you say the media won't bother to get out the vote if they don't see us.
If we have high publicity sign waving, then they will see our presence...yes?
Wrong Question Being Asked
Why choose? Don't we have enough resources to tackle all of them?
IMissLiberty
IMissLiberty
SC is Huckabee's to lose.
Huck has lead in every single poll of South Carolina Republican voters for over a month, so I don't see how you conclude it'll go to someone else. See
http://www.pollster.com/08-SC-Rep-Pres-Primary.php
Meanwhile it's been over a month since there's been a voter survey in Nevada so we're in the dark there. It might be possible to score well with the restaurant and hotel workers union there for our no-taxes-on-tips stance.
My Blog:
http://horizonscanblog.blogspot.com/
Thats before McCain won
Thats before McCain won - it will be mixed and votes will move towards Thompson or whoever
I disagree. Huckabee is
I disagree. Huckabee is really liked in the South. He will do well with the evangelicals in SC and McCain's immigration policy will not help him in SC. It is just like a lot of other states and has been invaded by illegal immigrants. SC does not want Amnesy.
If you remember back in 2000 Bush lost big to McCain in NH and then destoryed McCain in SC. McCain is not all that well liked in SC.
If he wins there I would also call for a recount. It will have to be rigged.
Not true
Neveda is a closed party caucus - we just won the Republican Assembly Straw Poll in that state - those are the same people that will come to vote in the caucus.
We need to steal Florida from Rudy.
I'm in Florida, we have a good base of Meetup groups, and I see signs all over. Florida is not Rudy's. Most are from Northeast, yes, but all I've spoken with can't believe Giulliani is even being considered for president.
Nevada!
I'd go after the delegates in Nevada. Dr. Paul already seems to have good traction in Nevada. However, the campaign should use the Meet-ups in both states for better results.
All states
I think we need the people in both MI and NV to get organized and get out there and spread the RP word. A strong showing in both states would be an incredible boost.
I know its probably easier said than done, but something has to be done. The time has come. Start the door knocking and phone calling. Everyone you know should be coming out to the primaries.
Spread the word..
Need a way to get RP's message to non-internet users?
click here: http://www.mediafire.com/?2u3diyn2oed
For more info on the Town Hall CD go here:
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/23599
Hope for Nevada
Sorry, but in MHO, Michigan is Romney's to lose. He was born there, I think his parents still live there, and his message is nicely moderate....
My sister lives in Michigan, and I have been there recently to visit for weeks at a time. They are HUGE ethanol/corn subsidy believers. many have used that to explain our Iowa results, well, Michigan is worse, because ther economy sucks so bad. When people are hurting so bad economically, they want to hear ANYTHING that will relieve their pain, not a vague philosophy about changing America. Also, every independent in Michigan is voting for Obama....he is their shining hope.
Michigan prediction:
Romney - 40%
Huckabee - 20%
McCain - 15%
Giuliani - 15%
Thompson - 5%
Paul - 5%
Focus on Nevada.
Michigan vs. Nevada...delegates to score
Michigan has 30 delegates up for grabs and you're right, is Mitt's to lose.
NEVADA, however, has 34 DELEGATES and WIDE OPEN for Ron to win!
Michigan is going to be a very split state for all involved, but who's got a complimentary message of (1) personal liberties, (2) personal privacy, (3) non-regulated internet freedom and (4) no federal income tax going into a state that stands to benefit from EVERY ONE of these issues?
My money says GO AFTER DELEGATE-RICH NEVADA!!!
Michigan - collectivism/redistribution oriented state...
... plays well to union members (lots of them in UAW country there) and welfare statists...This is Michael Moore's state. It's shattered economy is a direct result of their collectivism and redistributionalist ideals - so of course they'll be screaming for more federal bailouts. Hmm. Makes sense.
MI will play well with a McCain/Edwards/Obama crowd... I say 'go West' and focus on a group of folks who has a 'live and let live' doctrine (and they're economy is booming to prove it) - Nevada! And they's gots lots of them delegates too!
Poker for Paul
Get a charity poker tourney for Ron Paul. Anyone in the Nevada area tied in? Love to see Ron receiving a huge stack of cash.
PAUL A PALOOZA
Ron Paul Poker Tourney Added to Paul-a-Palooza!
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Please help us promote this event too! Even if you're not coming, we need your help with promotion!!! We are amateurs throwing together an amazing event in a short period of time! We need your help generating a buzz about this incredible weekend thrown together by the Las Vegas Ron Paul meetup group!
Please repost everywhere you can!
=========================
www.reclaim.org
Michigan is 15 Delegates
I think Michigan has only 15 delegates. The GOP punished Michigan for moving up their primary and they lost half their delegates. The Democrats stripped Michigan of all their delegates.
Nevada should be the state!
I agree with MI being a state ripe for the picking..
it's funny I just listed a bunch of the same points you make about MI in another thread, but I have not seen or heard ANY Ron Paul advertising on the tv or radio, and it does not look like he has any plans to make more stops here (heck the MI primary is not even listed on the upcomming events). I think that HQ is making a HUGE mistake by not paying more attention to MI, McCain won the primaries here last go round, but this state is pretty big anti war now, and war seems to be the only thing that McCain is consistent on, the fact that he doesn't care if we are at war for the next 10, 50 or 100 years.
Vote Counting Fraud?
Here is a link to write your legislatures asking to investigate companies that count votes with touch screen machines.
http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/o/2671/campaign.jsp?campa...
Davy C Rockett
http://www.thelibertypost.com
http://screamfreedom.blogspot.com
http://christianquest.net
Vote Counting Fraud?
Sorry hit button twice
http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/o/2671/campaign.jsp?campa...
Davy C Rockett
http://www.thelibertypost.com
http://screamfreedom.blogspot.com
http://christianquest.net
Michigan!
Jefferson County, Iowa was won by targeting Dems and Independents; not Republicans. Michigan is an open primary, and the Dem candidates aren't touching it. We market to them, and they come out and vote for us as a protest. Couple that with economy, and the Muslim population we could have a win. IF WE GET ORGANIZED...
- kipload
idealogs.blogspot.com
Completely Agree...and here's why...
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/primaries/re...
Take a look at these from the "delegate" side (which is what we need, not simply voters). Huckabee with his win got 17 delegates, McCain now has a "whopping" 9 as the winner last night. Ron still has 2 from Iowa last week!
Now we're looking at Michigan, "NEVADA" (hello!), South Carolina and Florida that even a "decent" placing could get Ron the spread to make up for these "pre-season" primaries.
This is like saying that a football team who lost their first one or two games has no shot to make it into the playoffs! WAY TOO EARLY for that kind of thinking/talk!
We've known all along that we face a fight at the GOP National Convention, as there is NO clear "front-runner." So let's just strap on our helmets and get ready for the REAL game ahead!!!
Sorry for the football analogies if you're not a sports fan...lol :-)
Ah, excuse me Jeff, but isn't Montana the elephant in the room?
Montana has a winner-take-all 25 delegates. Ron Paul is poised to win that state hands down if he applies any push there.
I have stated elsewhere that Montana is the most important place to put most of our efforts now.
Didn't see the delegate count...
... where did you get Ron with 2?
Exactly, 48 states to go
I think Nevada is a logical choice to be our surge protector - we have time to better our position there and its till before the Super Tuesday Primaries which is the big catch. It would give us momentum.
We may do well in South Carolina, and even better in Michigan, but I think we have the best chance to win Nevada.
It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over
"Why do a majority of readers feel that we will have either won or lost by February 5th? A candidate must win about 1,173 delegates in order to be assured the nomination. By the time the Super Tuesday votes are tallied only about 1,313 delegates will have been awarded. So, for the nomination process to be over by February 5th, some candidate will have to win 89% of all delegates awarded by that date.
It looks to me that Super Tuesday can not possibly be the end of the Republican nominating process. In fact, on February 6th, Ron Paul can realistically declare "I have not yet begun to fight."
http://ronpaulexplorer.com/forum/index.php/topic,2.0.html
Ron Paul Explorer: The All Paul Search Engine
Ron Paul Explorer: The All Paul Search Engine
Agreed
There are too many contenders. NOBODY is going to have a big lead. I think it would be crazy for anyone to drop out because "it ain't over until it's over."
Are you kidding me? You think someone is going to have 1100 delegates at the convention?
Huck will do well in the south and completely screw everything up for the others.
Romney, the so called national candidate, has done terribly in the debates.
It is Thompson's turn to be the flavor of the month and SC should do that for him.
Whomever it is will be running against a Hillary + Obama ticket. The doc can beat them.
Unify
What state will be our Surge Protector State?
We need to make a stand, and put alot of effort into a state, like Giuliani is in Florida.
Nevada for "immediate" notoriety...
Ron has an excellent chance there given his position on personal liberties and personal PRIVACY as well as non-regulation of the internet.
But I think we'll do "well" in SC and MI too...
We're less than an hour from a welcome for Rudy
To Brevard
http://ronpaul.meetup.com/502/calendar/7065283/
County, Florida. I'll be the guy with the spinning "Media Bias Makes Me Do This" sign.
JMR
Do these really help?
We need to start dressing nice, but not play so nicely. Be good, get inside Rudy's event and pass out literature. We've got to learn some psych-ops now, the other guys psych-ops are killing us.
Sick 'em...lol
:-)