Same Deal, No Doubt, For Ron Paul

There was recently an article debunking the idea that it's because y'all use cell phones that Ron doesn't show up better.

But I have been saying all along that NO ONE INCLUDES HIM in any polls I am called about.

GOP pollsters usually call registered Republicans who have voted in the last 4 or 5 primaries.

However, in the Luntz focus group, 3 of the 29 from this type cross-section were Paul supporters - that's 10% at least!

That does not take into account the D's, I's, and L's who are not on that type of list.

Pat Buchanan WON NH with a 27% in the primary, but only going in with 6% in the polls. AND he *was* included!

DO NOT DESPAIR!

He polls low in the polls that do list him.

http://www.jimmyliberty.c... loves Ron Paul

If we assume that similar thing as 2004 can happen in 2008, we should not care at all about the numbers from any National Scientific Polls. There is this precedence of Kerry jumping from 4% in Dec/2003 to 53% after NH in 2004 in CBS National Poll.

We should just keep working hard and ignore the poll numbers, Ron Paul can make it independent of any poll number.

[b]Also we should be very careful, as Michigan may be before IA and NH this year.[/b]

"[b]Why National Primary Polls Don't Matter[/b]

Some more time out from the hospital room (where things are going decently okay - thank you for your thoughts and prayers) for a reminder of why national primary polls don?t matter at this stage in the game. I will be using the 2004 Democratic primary as a backdrop for this presentation.

Exhibit A: a [b]poll from December 2003 - mere weeks away from the Iowa caucuses[/b]:

CBS News Poll, December 14-16, 2003
Dean - 23%
Clark - 10%
Lieberman - 10%
Gephardt - 6%
Sharpton - 5%
[b]Kerry - 4%[/b]
Edwards - 2%

Al Sharpton was beating John Kerry in the national polls. Al Sharpton. The day before the Iowa caucuses, CBS released another national primary poll where John Kerry managed to climb into 4th place nationally with a whopping 7% of the vote.

Now, Exhibit B: [b]that same poll taken just after Iowa and New Hampshire[/b]:

[b]Kerry - 53%[/b]
Dean - 8%
Edwards - 7%
Sharpton - 4%

So Kerry wins Iowa and New Hampshire, and his numbers skyrocket to nearly 8 times what they were. What effect did winning just Iowa have on the national numbers? For that, we can turn to Opinion Dynamics. [b]The week before Iowa the caucuses[/b]:

Dean - 20%
Clark - 13%
Lieberman - 8%
Gephardt - 7%
[b]Kerry - 7%[/b]

Now, [b]taken two days after Kerry wins Iowa and before the New Hampshire primaries[/b], these are what the national numbers were:

[b]Kerry - 29%[/b]
Dean - 17%
Edwards - 13%
Clark -11%
Lieberman - 5%

Just winning Iowa was worth a quadrupling of Kerry?s national numbers.

This pattern can be found in any poll results from 2003/04. USA Today, for example, had the race nationally at 26-24 Dean over Clark the week before Iowa, with Kerry at 9%. One week after Iowa, the national numbers became 49-14 Kerry over Dean. At the point we are at in this primary in 2003, USA Today had Kerry in fourth place behind Lieberman, Gephardt, and Dean in that order - and that was before Clark entered the race and Kerry dropped to fifth nationally.

Newsweek had the race at 24-12 Dean over Clark before Iowa. After Iowa but before New Hampshire, the race became 30-13 Kerry over Edwards, and after New Hampshire the race was 48-13 Kerry over Dean.

In Quinnipiac polls, Kerry?s national numbers before Iowa were at 8%. After Iowa, they jumped to 30%. After New Hampshire, they jumped to 42%. AP polls showed Kerry in fifth place at 5% nationally heading into Iowa. Pew showed him in fifth place with 7%.

You can go through literally dozens of polls that show the same effect, which all lead me to one conclusion: national primary poll numbers don?t matter. What matters is winning early states and riding that momentum. Because, as big of a day as February 5, 2008 is going to be, it is going to come nearly a month after Iowa. And it only takes one day for momentum from Iowa to change the whole race.

by Matt C @ 4:51 pm. Filed under Presidential History, Poll Watch"

Source: http://race42008.com/2007...

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Bet you a nickel the research group who does the phone polls was CFR-approved. Those little CFR buggers - they are just into everything, including voter polls. Only certain candidates are approved and all of the above are CFR members.

Ron Paul, Dennis Kucinich, Mike Gravel and Mike Huckabee are not CFR. Huckabee might get a mention because he's from Arkansas and would keep the war in Iraq going. But the others - not invited to the dance.

If they call my house I am going to say I am voting for Calvin Coolidge.

A friend of mine was called/polled about his thoughts on the candidates for the Republican party. And yep, he had to explain to the person who Ron Paul was and was certainly not on the list. What a joke and how sad. And some say the polls are not fixed......gimme a break!

Bob W., Naples, FL

To anyone who can name at least 3 Libertarian candidates for president without looking them up.

Welcome to the club.

IMissLiberty