Remaining States Delegates Breakdown Shows McCain Will Lose, Well Short of 1,191

Unfortunately, our delegates hands are tied unless vote goes into second round in MN? Can someone comment who knows more about this?

thanks

The 3 wins for McCain today gives him some momentum. It is nonsense to suggest he will run out of money (Huck may run out), as he has the backing of many in the GOP and people will give him money as long as he is in a very comfortable position as front runner.
If you go on the weekend's results, McCain may not make it, but based on today's results, he will sail through. Each state is different. Well, Perry - TX gov.
has endorsed McCain, but the tendency is that southern conservatives support Huckabee. Hope Paul has get a good performance from TX, possibly even win.

We have to think of other factors that could cost McCain the nomination, like another mistake, some relevation, health etc.

Add 60 delegates (the last few depend on the state GOP) to your count. Now it's only 66 delegates short of an outright win.

In other words, a win for McCain in Texas and it's over.

Don't forget Colorado... NO WAY INSANE MCCAIN WINS HERE!

His official count is 724 according to RCP, but this understates his support. See the official delegate count at http://www.realclearpolit... compared to the total delegates for each state at http://www.thegreenpapers.... Some examples of latent McCain strength:

States like Nevada and Maine that have already voted will leave 3 delegates uncommitted (state chair and 2 national committeemen). These party loyalists will fall in line and back McCain.

Louisiana sends 44 delegates based on this week's state convention. If the Paul campaign challenge doesn't work, they will go to McCain.

Washington state's primary on Feb 19th will determine 19 delegates in addition to the 18 that come out of the caucus system. McCain is very likely to win them.

Finally, because only 12(!) of McCain's official delegates come from caucus states, he will be little effected by our hoped-for success in upcoming state conventions.

This is why Huckabee knows he needs a "miracle" to get the nomination, and we are in no better position.

of them defense contractors and war machine builders, shipyards, Naval, Army, & Air Force bases, Nasa, CIA, in Virginia. Hopefully the military Paul supporters outweigh the war machine. just sayin.

then there may be hope, but we have to work out asses off. so lets do it
Ben

McCain has a huge lead in Virginia right now --

See the poll at:
http://www.surveyusa.com/...

VIRGINIA
McCain - 57%
Huckabee - 25%
Paul - 9%

Might want to change your assumptions. That's 63 more winner-take-all delegates.

All Romney's (and the rest of the dropouts) delegates are free to vote for whoever they want. Unfortunately if even half of these go to McCain it is over.

while your assumption does make it appear harder for McCain than it is, the fact of the matter is mainly comes down to Texas.

Shmuck and McCrack won't drop out now. They don't need a lot of money. There isn't any competition other than RP and unfortunately the old media is in their favor, not Ron's. They get free advertising now. RP still has to pay for his if he wants any. It sucks but it's true. Another reason to donate I would guess. Besides do you think for one second the GOP would allow Ron to go unchallenged? If they had to spend every dime they could scrape out of their couches they would see to it that there was an opponent.

ZOOAMERICA. very nice post with very good analysis! thank you! :)

Not if we don't keep donating...

The race is still wide open.

Excellent post, you did a fine job of looking at the possible break down of states.

On May 13, the official West Virginia primary (not the state convention) has an additional NINE GOP delegates up for grabs as follows:
Three (3) per each of WV's three congressional district.
A win in Texas can help Ron Paul WIN THESE!

NOTE: The WVGOP state convention awarded 18 (15 for Huck, 3 for Paul) delegates on Super Tuesday. There are three more national delegates designated for WVGOP insider hacks.

NOTE NOTE: Both the Republicans AND Democrats will be allowing "independents" (voters registered non-partisan) to vote in this primary. So, WV voters registered "NP" have two choices, while voters registered "R" or "D" are stuck with that party.

While I expect McCain to easily get enough delegates, the remaining states are largely Red states, so it's easy to imagine Huckabee upsetting McCain in several of them.

If Huckabee wins Virginia tomorrow that may give him a chance in Texas, Mississippi, Kentucky, North Carolina, Idaho, Nebraska, and other states where the Republican electorate is rural, evangelical, and conservative.

McCain will almost certainly win Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania where moderate Republicans dominate.

Most states allocate delegates to the winner of the Congressional district, so if McCain wins big in Pennsylvania he will probably get all the delegates, while if Huck wins narrowly in Texas (hard to imagine otherwise), McCain will still get a bunch of delegates from Dallas and Houston. That will put McCain over the top as early as March.

ok so even if it does come to a brokered convention.. what are paul vs huck odds?

What is McLames true number of delegates? This is probably the fourth explanation I have seen, and each has a different requirement for McLame. I read one earlier that said McLame would have to win over 70% of the bound delegates to reach 1191.

What is McLame's real count for bound delegates? This example showing McLame only needs 43%, and that seams possible. I would not assume that he will not win Texas.

From what i have learned, the bigger the states population, the higher percentage of ignorant people. Please dont be affended, I definately appreciate the hard work. And I agree DRP is going all the way, I have never been a fan of assumption math.

Again, please dont be affended.

Tim

Im gonna be a delegate, Im gonna be a delegate.. na na na na na.... and my vote goes for no one except RP, they can broker me all they want... Of course, I need to be selected at county and state, but I feel lucky this year..

Tim
Active/Reserves/Retired
Join the
Military for Ron Paul meet-up Group
http://ronpaul.meetup.com...

It's interesting how they are making it sound like no one else stands a chance other than McCain. I keep hearing that Huckabee needs 85% of the remaining delegates to win. When you hear that number it just sounds like he should just give up.

What they don't say is that McCain needs 42% of the remaining delegates to keep it from being a brokered convention. Getting 42% doesn't sound like a sure thing to me, especially after this weekend.

Let's say that Ron Paul gets 5%, that would mean Huckabee would only need to get 54% of what's left in order for a brokered convention. If I were McCain, I wouldn't be celebrating too soon.


Del's ST Note
140 TX In each district and statewide, if winner gets a majority then winner take all, otherwise proportional primary
88 OH Winner take all by district and statewide
74 PA
69 NC
63 VA Winner take all
57 IN
45 KY
40 WI Winner take all by district and statewide
39 MS Statewide if winner gets a majority then winner take all, otherwise proportional
37 MD Winner take all by district and statewide
33 NE
32 NM
32 ID
30 OR
27 SD
20 RI
20 HI
19 DC Winner take all
17 VT Winner take all


Sources: http://www.bloomberg.com/... and
http://www.realclearpolit...

Please straighten if crooked.

All RP supporters must become delegates in these states.

Especially...since Romney dropped--this leaves it wide open for RP delegates to move in...because of McCain and Huckabee's supporters' poor understanding of delegates process.

Local GOP are somewhat corrupt...but, they are in disarray just like the entire GOP machine.

We can do this.