Someone Explain Again How we are Going to Win a Brokered Convention?
Posted February 23rd, 2008 by Kevin Tuma
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The part I don't understand is why the assumption is being made that the "delegates who are free to vote for whomever they choose" will vote for Ron Paul.
Someone explain it to me.
1. Let's suppose that Ron Paul's public image is still good in September; that he isn't the victim of more racist smears or the (actually more damaging) label that he is a "weirdo" and a "loser".
2. And let's suppose that McCain in September is as unpopular as ever--that he will receive more "hit pieces" from the New York Times, that the talk radio set will continue to virulently oppose him, that Coulter keeps her word to campaign for Hillary, and so on.
3. And let's suppose that McCain has gained very little since Super Tuesday--that Huckabee beats him up in Texas and a lot of other Sun Belt states. And a brokered convention is a certainty.
Near-idyllic conditions for Ron Paul, in other words.
When the open votes begin, what is going to make the delegates vote for Ron Paul?
-A great speech?
-The endorsement of a flurry of big name conservatives who like his ideas?
-That he's just so gosh-darn more likeable than people like Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee, that the media considers "serious" candidates?
-Because he wears a really good-looking suit and tie?
-Because he's taller than McCain, and has better-looking abs than Huckabee?
-Because a meteor falls out of the sky, and lands on McCain and Huckabee while they are shaking hands at the podium?
I know why WE support Paul and are going to vote for him. What about the open delegates?
How does "we could theoretically win in an ideal universe" translate into "we are still winning--because it's the delegates, stupid"?
--Kev Tuma
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Because we knew early on
Back in the late spring -early summer when, like the rest of America, Republicans were frolicing in their apathy at the beach and at theme parks, we in the Ron Paul Revolution were studying the rules of the game. We had no choice. Dr Paul was bringing the traditional conservative message and was getting lambasted for it by the likes of Hannity, Laura Ingram, etc. If we were going to pump money into this campaign we had to be realistic about our chances, learn the rules, create our own opportunities, and hedge our investments accordingly.
One thing was clear as we entered the fall campaign season. Republican voters were NOT satisfied with the field of Republican candidates. All hope was that Fred Thompson would ride onto the scene atop Ron Reagan's white stallion and resurrect that old "city on the hill" glory. Republican voters were looking for popularity.
We knew due to the rejection and riddicule we were getting from both sides of the media that we were not going to win any popularity contests because of it. Fortunately we had alot of Libertarians onboard early on. Libertarians deal with the adversity every year, that we in Dr Paul's camp needed to overcome. Give them credit. They know how to play the rules. They know the laws. They know the process. God bless them, they made it understood early on if Ron Paul had any chance at all to win the nod it would be through the delegate system. Primary elections are nothing but popularity contests, and election laws pertain to the popularity contest not the nomination process. And we educated ourselves in the rules.
Before the Iowa caucus in the summer we knew our strategy. We just needed to confirm that we were doing better than the skewed polling data indicated.
Unpopularity is now to be used to our advantage. The unpopularity of the field of candidates with Republican voters. The more candidates in the race the better off we are. Winning state primaries is unrealistic. Finishing ahead of a few household name candidates would be more beneficial, so long as we have enough money to go the distance. Recruit delegates, raise money, focus resources on "apportioned" states, and cross your fingers for a brokered convention.
As we began to lock entire districts delegate ballots with confirmed Ron Paul commitments we felt more comfortable investing money in the campaign. We hedged our bets with delegates
While Republicans were dragging their feet trying to decide which candidate could beat Hillary before they commited time, energy or money to a candidate, we were at work making the popularity contest irrelevant.
We are winning because...
1) There is a new identity, where one didn't exist prior, for persons who want to restore the Constitution to our government.
2) Our new Constitution-loving group has sent foot soldiers to set up camp in the Republican party delegate process.
3) The first wave of "ron paul republicans" are running for office.
-------------------------------------
It's not about Ron Paul. It's not about Ron Paul being president. It's about restoring the Constitution and the concepts of individual liberty and self-government.
We are winning the first battles of the war.
We have a group identity now. We have setup camp in the local republican electoral process all over the nation. We are organizing to send "ron paul republicans" to office.
We are winning battles right now. If we maintain our efforts we can win the War.
Video from Killeen Rally Today
anyone have a link - youtube etc...?
It doesn't
How does "we could theoretically win in an ideal universe" translate into "we are still winning--because it's the delegates, stupid"?
Its all mind-games & self-delusion of "true believers" the same kind that "are certain" that the surge is working in Iraq, etc. (What purpose for it then? Well, it keeps the "hope" alive and means you don't have to be so depressed about reality. And for the campaign, it serves as a wonderful CYA so that no one has to answer for "what happened to all that money?")
Reality sux.
But some of us prefer to live in reality. (And "true believers" don't like that).
And you could be called a "true disbeliever"
Your view is the ultimate pessimistic, fatalistic mindset. Some of us "true believers" are doing more than just hoping for a Ron Paul win. We are actually getting up out of the computer chair and becoming real delegates. I'm doing this and I've gotten half a dozen people to join me in my county along with nearly 20 other Ron Paul supporters accoss our county. Maybe you should try optimism. It really beats being depressed.
He Doesn't Have Tons Of Support, However,.....
He has tons of delegates @ All levels. County, state and national.
We're organized
In my state, at least, we've been working on getting Ron Paul supporters in those delegate positions. There are counties that still need to elect their State and Congressional delegates, and all the National delegates still need to be elected, but we've got people ready to fill those spots.
It works different in each state
In Texas: We have three Conventions. 1 precinct level, 2 senate level, 3 state level. At each level we pick delegate to vote for the delegate at the next level.
So, we flood the Precinct level with RP supporters. At this level often just showing up to be a precinct delegate will get you spot as often many spots go vacant due to participation, lack of. This year will likely be different as participation seems to be high. So you show up to be delegate or alternate, if there are more wanting to be delegates than there are available slots, it goes to who gets the most votes.
These "Precinct Delegates" will then attend the senate level convention. The precinct delegates need to discover which of the people running for senate level delegates are RP supporters, then they vote for them. If we have secured a majority of precinct delegates, and a full roster of RP senate delegates are available, then the precinct delegates vote for the RP senate level delegate.
Then it goes to the state convention, where the National Delegates, the End Game Delegates, are chosen. If we have secured a majority of the Senate level delegates, and have a full slate of Delegates at the State level, THEN we can elect a majority of RP National Delegates who represent Texas at the National GOP Convention.
And in Texas, it all starts with little ole you and me types getting involved in the process, ENMASS at ALL THREE LEVELS.
Because WE are the delegates
If Ron Paul supporters are the ones who have involved themselves in the process, they will be the ones making the rules and voting at the convention. If I am from a state whose delegates are BOUND to McCain for the first vote and he doesn't win the nomination on the first vote, guess who I will vote for on the second round? When other delegates see the MOMENTUM of a candidate who is uniting the party instead of dividing it, they will get on board too.
How many people have you talked to who can articulate the position of the candidate they are voting for? As soon as I ask my family about the positions of the candidate they support, they never write back with an answer. What influence can we have at a convention full of people who are 100% guaranteed voters, who think they should vote for someone they really don't support (like McCain) because they don't see an alternateive - and then we show them the REAL candidate with TONS of support both inside and outside the convention?
But Paul doesn't have TONS
But Paul doesn't have TONS of support. He should, beyond question; he's one of the greatest constitutional statesmen in history, but the average person knows very little about Ron Paul, and if they've heard of him, has difficulty understanding the more "extreme" aspects of his platform--like, say, the suggestion that we eliminate the Income Tax and 'replace it with nothing'.
If converting the uncommitted is the mission, I fear that a "blessed" establishment candidate like Huckabee is more likely to win...at least assuming that the brokered convention has a large enough delegate gap that McCain isn't simply coronated as a formality.
-Kev
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There are more than 1,191 active supporters
Just because some states have "uncommited" delegates does'nt mean those delegates are "uncommited". In many districts we had to declare "uncommited" because we would'nt have been selected otherwise. In states like here in Pa. none of the delegates are "commited". You just gather petition signatures, get on the ballot (usually unchallenged), and get elected. Pennsylvania sends 74 delegates to the Convention in total. NONE are "commited". NONE are "Bound".
Also keep in mind states with "bound" delegates are only bound by state party rules, not by state laws.
At the convention...
At the convention, we don't need to gain the support of average voters. Or MSM. Or the party. We need to gain the support of delegates. And those delegates are already Ron Paul supporters (if we've done our homework and elected a full slate of Ron Paul supporters as delegates).
Even if most of the delegates are not Ron Paul supporters, a passionate minority can swing the undecided delegates to Dr. Paul. It is a matter of convincing the undecided delegates and that should be doable considering the opposition.
Our support is active, not passive
The majority of people vote bacause they are "supposed" to. They do not know much about the candidates beyond what the MSM and advertisements tell them. This majority will be home doing something else when the state conventions and national conventions are taking place. The people attending are the same ones who have been ACTIVE supporters this last year -- us, and long time GOPers. The GOP has been bleeding support and dollars for at least 4 years now. People who used to be involved have dropped out and no one (except us) has been coming in with new energy and commitment to make a difference. The party insiders who will be there because they have been there all along do not want the party to fall apart (that is why they are going to vote McCain despite their dislike for him and what he stands for. They are told there is no other choice.) When we show up with our energy, and money, at the state and national conventions, these old time GOPers will see for themselves what they have missed on FOX and CNN -- that Ron Paul has a TON of support. Outside the convention they will see families with their Ron Paul signs and t-shirts and tell themselves "Is he still running? Why are all these people here?" Inside the convention hall they will talk to a large number of other delegates, like themselves, who are excited about their opportunity to vote because there is someone who will turn the GOP around to its conservative roots of small government and lower taxes and say "I thought Ron Paul was just some fringe candidate, why are his supporters saying all the things I want, but don't have in McCain?" These fellow delegates will not just be the 4-8% of people reflected by Primary results, but 25-50% of the delegates who have made the commitment in time and money to be a part of the process. For those of you who are afraid the old-time GOPers will be all the people who have been keeping Ron Paul down in the state results, remember, the majority of actual delegates at the local levels are your neighbors who are there because their level of involvement is higher than the "vote because you are supposed to" crowd, but they are NOT the full-time, follow the special interest carreer Republicans that have been getting in the way (like in Louisiana). Our participation gives us the chance to show the people whose vote really counts what the Ron Paul Revolution is all about, and make a few more committed Revolutionaries as well.
That's where the ability to
That's where the ability to explain Dr Paul's positions will help immensely. Please know that we are converting McCain voters here in this county one at a time. Our county GOP is thrilled to have RP supporters. They love the new life we've injected in the party. I can see here in WA state that we will DOMINATE the state convention and that is all it will take. It takes faith Kev I know but don't worry this process will reap powerful results whether Ron wins or not, I feel it in my gut. If you can be a delegate DO IT. If not sit back and enjoy the telling of our journeys because I know it will be a wild exciting ride for many of us!
BTW the majority of people going to these conventions are not your average person in the sense of political involvement. Most will at least listen to our views.
The ability to explain Dr.
The ability to explain Dr. Paul's positions is critical, especially if he doesn't garner respect from other well-known political figures, which I suspect he will not. (Aside from, perhaps, Pat Buchanan.)
So--has there been any discussion of a written platform that's easy to sell to the masses, like the GOP Contract With America from 1994? Putting it in writing so it's clearly and quickly understood by laypeople would be a big help. The first thing people react to with candidates is their physical image, not their positions...because with most politicians, there aren't enough principles for the positions to be dominant.
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Support the Constitution of the United States
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Although the s***storm is unlikely to hit before the convention, if it does a lot will change. The socialists will win the general election, their ideas still dominate the mass vote, but in order to fight the next New Deal, the Republicans still have a chance to nominate Ron Paul. It is our job to make sure that they know why they should.