Hyperinflation ??? Depression ??? Gold ??? Debt ??? Good Advice, PRICELESS!
+++ Hyperinflation ??? Depression ??? Gold ??? +++
The sky is not falling, at least not yet. What we have been experiencing and will continue to, is a readjustment downward of both wages and asset prices. First wages; inflation, while often called a hidden tax, is in reality a wage and pay cut. For example if you earn $50,000 per year and the inflation rate is 10%, effectively your wage has been cut by 10%. Assets on the other hand, this includes real estate, stock, bonds and yes folks even gold and silver will also decrease in value as the world economy slows down. This is because as demand decreases, so does price. So selling your home to buy gold is most likely not going to help you much, especially if you own the home free and clear.
What causes the confusion in perception is the dollar. The dollar will continue to slide downward as long as the US Treasury rates are lower than other competing currencies. Only an increase in US Treasury rates, or conversely a cut by the completing currencies will stop the fall of the greenback. Here is where the value perception problem occurs. For example, would you buy something from a jewelery store just because there was a 50% off sale? Most likely you would be asking yourself first, 50% off "of what"; wholesale , retail, 100% markup, 500% markup?
The same question should be asked on any asset sale or purchase.
For example, if you compared gold to oil, instead of the dollar, you would see that both have about the same value as they did in 2001.A better question would be; did the price of gold and oil go up, or did the dollar just goes down? Since not only gold and oil are up in price ,( not value), but also every other commodity is up in price, a fair argument could be made that it is the dollar that is down. Which brings us the a worldwide slowdown, recession, depression or whatever you perceive we are now experiencing or about to experience.
Trying to call the top or bottom of any economic trend is all but impossible. The best any of us can hope to do is identify the trend and make it our friend. Assuming that assets prices will continue to rise during an economic slowdown may not be the wisest move, regardless of the asset. While it is possible and sometimes called stagflation, people should consider easier strategies than trying to guess. It is always better to pay off debt. People suggesting that you not pay off debt and should instead buy gold, remind me of what Will Rogers once said. He said, " The definition of a gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar on top".
I am not poo-pooing gold, however it is at its all time high and most economic experts believe we will have some form of economic slowdown. The US represents 25% of the world economy. So when the US catches a cold, most of the rest of the world catches the flu.My point is the banks are not stupid, they will adjust interest rates up on outstanding debt to make up any loss in value, that is for certain. What is not for certain is, while gold may go up in price near term, will it increase in value as related to the other commodities we need to survive, like food? I would suggest paying off dept and growing a garden would better suit most people along with other common sense cost cutting approaches like eating at home instead of out in restaurants or trading a gas guzzling car for a more fuel efficient one. The sky is not falling, at least not yet. While holding gold as a "hedge" against inflation is a smart move, common sense should be applied before betting the farm on it.
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Of course it is always
Of course it is always better to pay off any existing debt but...considering how everything is sold using credit it is hard for aany American to ever reach debt consolidation. We buy a house, a car or two, refrigerators and other appliances with money we don't even have.
Couple of criticisms with
Couple of criticisms with this post:
1. Gold has always been seen as a hedge against inflation. But if you were to get into 100k of gold five years ago, it has gone up 300% since, and many homes after the bust are going to be less than they were five years ago, so if that's what you were using that profit for, YES IT DID do more than act as a hedge against inflation. You amassed considerable new wealth relative to the value of home prices. It is possible, you know, for a commodity price to be undervalued in the market and not reflecting its true value against something with perceived value like the dollar. That's where commodities were in the phony boom all these years, and it's not over yet. Gold and oil are going to $1500 and $150 respectively from continued devaluation of the dollar. It's not over yet. Your criticism of gold thus makes no sense at the end, because if you truly believe that gold only acts as a hedge against inflation, then you would accept its decline in price as reflective of the dollar regaining purchasing power, meaning you're not losing anything.
2. When you say that the US represents 25% of the world economy, what you are forgetting is that we are being subsidized by foreign credit and that our economy today is a borrow and spend economy that is literally spending its way to wealth. That makes no sense and is unsustainable, and if the world wakes up to this con and delinks from the dollar as they should, products that were once going to non-productive Americans are going to start going to the producers themselves in China and elsewhere. These are the countries that are driving the world economy right now, the producers, not us spending their lent wealth to buy their goods.
gold is not at an all time high
if inflation is calculated gold would have to be about $2200 per ounce to be at the 1980 high.
I agree with common sense being needed, but neither common sense or good information are really all that common.
I recently bought a suit for $100 dollars, it was made in China.
The comparison for gold, as I have heard it, was a "fine tailored suit and shoes", not the best deal you could find.
Gold was up 42% last year, and is up about 5% in the last month, it has not hit the type of run up that created the gold spike in 1980.
The sky did not fall in 1929, it was the beginning of a steady decline that got worse the more the government got involved.
With the exception of your opinion of gold and silver your advice is pretty good.
Beware of bubbles
My point is to beware of all bubbles. The same bubble that was created in gold in 1980 could happen again. Where , when, who knows? It is your money, do as you please with it. I saw the housing bubble back in 2005, I got out, not at the very top, but close enough. I have seen people post that gold should go to $2200 per ounce to test its old all time high. But this is only an historic basis, there is no evidence that gold should reach that level other than it once did, adjusted for inflation, then crashed. All investment carries risk; gold, teak plantations, hogs farms, or stocks and bonds. Expecting rates of return of 5% per month or 42% per year is not only risky, it is unrealistic. Just ask the people that got caught at the top of the last bubble, real estate. They all thought the roller coaster ride was never going to end too. But like I said, its your money do as you please.
yeah and when you buy have it in your hand.
'I always think of all you canvassors and precinct leaders at the front line.
Good luck out there &Thank you. It's appreciated'.-fip -U.K
You left Out The Important Parts Of This Equation
Very simply, there are a number of factors that you have left out of this equation:
1. As a mine owner I can tell you that Gold and Silver reserves are greatly falling. Today, silver production is less than it was in 1922 and gold production is down. The South African gold mines have reached a depth where many of the air tempetures are as high as 130 degrees. Miners can only mine for a very short period of time. The amount of gold recovered in these mines are rapidly falling. Tribal warfare takes place almost daily and dead miners are hidden within the hundreds of miles of old tunnels. Thieft has greatly increased. And, worse of all is that the HIV rate amount blacks in these African countries are running as high as 90%. Interestingly, French Scientists have located five different muttated types of the AIDs viruse in Africa. The one they worry about is the one transfered via a number of different flying, blood sucking insects. As a result, white European and North American Mining Engineers, Managers, Geologist and others will not work in these mines. Just note the shortage and the rapid increase in the price of Platium and Rhodium. Both part of Platium Group Materials have sky rocketed. These materials are primarily mined in South Africa and Russia. A short time ago gold was priced at $250 per once, Platium was $300 per once and Rhodium was approximately $450 per once. Today gold has shot up to over $900 per once, Platium is $2150 and Rhodium is around $9,000 per once. The one that is control by the Federal Reserve Bank is Gold and you can see how it has been held down in price. The demand for all of these raw materials is much higher than our ability to supply. Plus it is going to get a lot worse.
2. China wants to trade it's ever increasing $1.3 trillion dollar stock pile who's worth is dropping rapidly, for raw materials, especially gold. Right now China is like a stealth vaccum cleaner sucking up every once of gold and other raw material it can buy, through their many World Wide agents. They just hope that the IMF or anyone else puts tons of gold on the market, they will be first in line. China's plan in the future is to have a gold back currency. Then they will reach the level of Worlds greatest economy. They are purchasing stock in a number of corporation to aquire pattents and state-of-the-art knowledge but that process is too, slow and requires a lot of approvals and legal work.
3. The part that you left out is that yes, the price of gold and silver are moving higher throughout the World but most important for us is the fact that the dollar is falling in value of worth. It takes move dollars to buy fewer onces of gold or silver. Dr. Paul has pointed this out a number of times. So obviously as the dollar falls, the price of gold and silver per once increases. And, there is nothing in sight that is going to change that outcome.
4. The cost of mining has really shot up. Cost of mining equipment, fuel, machine cost and shortages, processing, environmental concerns, wages, insurance, spare parts, maintenance, drilling rig shortage are all up and no end in sight.
5. Many are not aware that most of the worlds mined gold is still with us but not in the case of silver. Silver is primarily an industrial material who's uses have expanded greatly just in the past ten years. Historically, the people of India have always favored silver over gold, primarily for its magical abilities. Many are not aware that silver kills well over 650 known pathogens upon contact. Silver has stopped many plaques in world history. Thats where "born with a silver spoon in their mouth comes from". Silver has been proven to stimulate regrowth of human tissue, cartoledge and nerve fiber, as well as saving a military veterans leg by stopping an infection that drugs could do. (Dr. Robert O. Becker, MD Research and book "The Body Electric" 1985). Silver water and air filters for hospitals greatly reduce gem transference. Military band aids now contain silver threads which expedite healing by three times. New silver impregnated counter tops will kill pathogens, including bacteria and viruses at hospitals, schools, restrauants, nursing homes and so on. The list is way to long to place it here. Note, that gold is being used in many new medical treatments, as is Rhodium and Platium.
China is now the largest gold producer
China is now the largest gold producer surpassing SA last year. While worldwide gold production did fall by 1% last year, expect China to continue to increase production near term picking up the falling production rates in Peru and other counties.
http://www.miningweekly.c...
So I reiterate, while gold is an inflation hedge to preserve capital, it is not necessarily increasing in value from an investment standpoint, unless like you people own a mine. My point is that while gold is a good hedge against inflation, common sense should be exercised where it can be in regards to growing and storing food, cutting expenses and being as self sufficient as possible.
I believe gold to be a bit overvalued at this time. The equation has always been an ounce of gold could buy a good man's suit. Well you can buy a really good man's suit for $600 to $800. I agree will you on silver. Silver may still have some upside to go as of today. However remember as well with silver, all those industrial uses it has may slow down in a worldwide recession.
Food, fresh water, and energy are what we should be storing. Changing a gas guzzling car for a diesel that could be converted and run off of vegetable oil, a garden that could yield enough food to can and store, and a good protein source, be it rice and beans, fish, deer, hogs or chickens make more sense if there is a currency collapse then trying to barter for food with gold or silver. This is just my opinion, but then again I do not own a gold mine.
You and I Agree On a Lot of Things, But.......
You and I agree on a lot of things but Jeff you need to go and re-read that same article. What it points out is that China had 7% of the Worlds Gold reserves but at the same time they have well over 2,000 good size active mines, a couple of which are probably in the top ten largest in the World. The reason they passed South Africa is two fold. First China has been working 24/7 in this mines to extract as much Gold as possible, in the shortest period of time. And, as a result, they are running out of mineable gold. They point out in the article that China expects their production to begin to fall relatively soon and will continue to decrease rapidly. The other reason is, just like I pointed out, South Africa's gold is also running out. Their gold veins have been reduced in size and will continue. They are trying to dig deeper but they are already the deeper than in mines in the history of the World and their total production will continue to fall, as will China's. Now Jeff, if you remove even one fourth of both China's and South Africa's gold production you will see the price of gold increase to, I believe well over $3,000 per once. In addition, at the same time World wide production also is falling. Gold has qualities and properties that no other single element contains. I can not discuss this subject in depth, but you might want to investigate a recent discovery involving gold and it's new peoperties that some refer to as "White Powered Gold". It will sound too strange to be true but I can assure you that most of what you read on the subject is true and there is much more information that is classified.
Jeff, ask yourself if you want to barely get by in the future or do want to be able to have additional assets so as to be able to help your family, friends and others who are not possbily as fortunate??
Anyone Jeff, can own a gold mine, you just need to take a big financial risk. Locating the gold is the easy part, making money extracting the mineral and processing it is a totally different story.
Forgot To Mention....
I forgot to mention, as a side bar, a couple of years ago science discovered that each tip of a DNA strand is coated in either Rhodium or Platium on one end and the other metal on the other end and as we age the amount of this material is reduced. Experiments showed that by increasing the level or replacing the lost amount of metals, a reverse of the aging process will automatically take place. In addition, these two, as well as gold are being used in new cancer treatments with success. You will probably never hear of this either, because the last thing the government wants to do right now is to extend the life of the baby-boomers.
Do you have a link on the AIDS thing?
Fortune Favors the Bold
I always wondered why it wouldn't be transmitted by mosquitos. That's scary!
Kind of an answer for you
As a form senior research engineer, I long ago formed a habit of reading a lot of different research information each and everyday. In this case I believe that it might have come from an article in ScienceDaily.com or one of the French Science Publications, but I just don't remember. I can tell you that you will not find any of this in the MSM, though. In todays World we are bombarded by so much wonderful information each day that it is almost overwhelming. A couple of other muttations that they pointed out in the article that I found very interesting, were that two of these new strains can only be transfered from female to female and another one from male to male, without any possible cross over between genders, both via bodily fluids.
I agree
with you advice, "don't bet the farm on it." Especially when you realize the cost of food is increasing tremendously since we are now growing corn for fuel. It is the end of cheap food.
The best thing people can learn to do is grow their own food. Now this may sound a bit off the wall, but my husband and I have also decreased our need for food by 1) eating 95% uncooked food (has more nutrients and fewer toxins) and 2) sungazing. www.solarhealing.com
Corn for Fuel Causing High Food Prices is a Myth
Corn for fuel has nothing to do with high food prices. The corn used for fuel has never been grown for human consumption yet this myth perpetuates.
Ethanol is a high performance renewable clean burning fuel. That's why racers us it. Engines last 3 times as long using it and a properly tuned engine can get better mileage then on gasoline. The internal combustion engine was originally designed to run on ethanol. Most of the negative stuff you have heard about ethanol is untrue and propaganda put out by big oil.
We could easily be energy independent in a few years if people knew the truth about ethanol http://www.alcoholcanbeag...
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the whole problem with the
the whole problem with the cost of food rising is not from growing corn to make fuel(ethanol).. the problem is a federal reserve who prints money out of thin air for a government who spends way to much money on unjust wars and socialist /welfare programs in the this country.. the problem with food prices and fuel costs rising is a DEVALUING OF THE US DOLLAR..
RIght, so get off the food grid
and eat light! Eat right and eat light. Believe it or not there are TONS of mainstream scientific studies that prove we need very little food to live on and IN FACT LIVE LONGER when we reduce our caloric intake by 40-50% IF AND ONLY IF we eat highly nutritious food. These studies were done on primates. AND if you eat 100% raw organic you can even get down to 800 calories a day. A study done in Japan for ex (the Japanese prisoner of war diet) had a couple able to function quite nicely on a raw 800 calorie a day diet. The woman even was able to nurse! But if cooked, they got sick and had to stop. OF course Codex will soon make organic and raw impossible (unless home grown). Only irradiated GMOs with pesticide.
And if you really want to be FREE you can become solarized and not have to eat at all....
You are right and I'd like to add...
Obtain and store seeds NOW
Monsanto and their cohorts are busy with their seed banks, and are moving forward at lightening speed to own all the plant food varieties on earth. Store your seeds. Share with neighbours. Grow them. Get as many varieties as you can. In India it has taken less than a decade to lose over 90 % of the diversity in grains. Thanks Monsanto.
Bill Gates Seed Bank Norway
Yeah.- cw canadian is right. 'They've' built a seed bank with every type of seed set into a mountain in Norway. They will own nature one day.
'I always think of all you canvassors and precinct leaders at the front line.
Good luck out there &Thank you. It's appreciated'.-fip -U.K
Those scumballs!
WOW. Unbelievable. And what are we to do if there is a natural disaster and
the infrastructure breaks down so we cannot order new seeds?
Breatharianism is looking better and better. When they back you into a corner....Check out the book Life from Light by a German scientist who hasn't eaten since 2001!
http://www.amazon.com/s/r...