A Prescient Prediction in Late 2001 by David Nolan

David Nolan, the founder of the Libertarian Party in 1971, has had a theory of politics which says there is a major change in the U.S. roughly every 72 years. It's not a precise timeframe, but that 72 year period flipped over in 2004. In light of the Ron Paul campaign, Nolan's predictions seem very prescient. This interview was done for the 30th anniversary of the founding of the Libertarian Party. The following quote is from that interview. I hope you find it interesting. If Nolan's theory is correct, it is VITAL that Ron Paul win this election!

A: I thought I'd get your comments on various theories about what might happen now. First, how likely do you think it is that the LP will become a major political party, as you described, or even replace one of the major two parties?

N: That's a good question, and since my crystal ball hasn't been real accurate in the past, I hate to go very far out on a limb. But let me give you a couple thoughts on that general topic.

You probably read or heard that I've been espousing the theory that political change moves in a cyclical pattern. In the United States, there seems to be a fairly strong political cycle of about 72 years. That is due to culminate in 2004. I don't believe it's like clockwork. It could be 2008. I would still bet on 2004 as being the most likely year for there to be a major realignment of the political system in this country.

By "major realignment," I mean that the die will be cast, pretty much determining the general nature of our political system, and therefore our social system to a large degree, for the next 72-year cycle. There are times of great change and great opportunity, and there are times where things just go along the way they've been going, and society settles into a new equilibrium.

I think we are fast approaching a time of change. At that juncture, now a little over three years away in terms of the election, I think it's very likely that the people of the United States are going to have to choose between a lot more freedom and a lot less freedom. I think the system we have now, the mixed system, is unstable and falling apart. Most people are aware that it's not working very well and are therefore looking (at least on an unconscious level) for at least some kind of change. The problem is that most people don't really know what kind of change they want, and a lot of them who do don't want the kind of change that we want. But I still think we're in one of those periods of major change and decision-making, a cross-roads.

Therefore, the question becomes which way are we going to go, and what is the mechanism whereby we are going to choose the direction that we take. I sense the LP can and will play a major role in that decision.

How is change going to happen, and which direction is more likely? I have to say I think the odds are still against us. We're still fighting an uphill battle. I don't like to have to say this, but I think the odds are more likely that America will slide into a kinder, gentler fascism -- by which I mean kinder and gentler than Mussolini's, but not much. I think it's more likely, by greater than fifty-fifty, perhaps as high as two-to-one, that we will go in the wrong direction, because there is so much force behind the move in that direction.