GOLD 978$ DAMMIT
Posted March 18th, 2008 by yuengling
output
I just went to a coin store this morning and bought gold coins at a spot price of 1,030. I thought the fed interest rate cuts were going to raise gold prices since they were cheapening the dollar. I guess they will in the long run. I only bought a couple hundred dollars worth and kept from throwing all my money down at one time.
Bookmark/Search this post with:
Watch out
Gold is worth 919$/OZ
http://www.usagold.com/li...
headed
headed down to 850
you should buy at any price!
you should buy at any price! gold and silver are getting a little hard to find at local shops ! especially silver
GOLD IS MONEY
I believe the "price" fall is largely due to people taking their "profits" from paper gold holdings and does not really reflect the long-term value of holdings of physical gold. If gold was $850 in 1980, that's about $2200. in "today's dollars" and that means that $1000/oz. gold is still underpriced and a good way to keep the wealth you have accumulated. As was indicated in an earlier comment, buy some more if you see the price starting to rise again and you average out the "cost" (number of FRNs per ounce) and that should make you feel better. Even if it goes down a bit, it'll only be for a while. When I bought gold the last time (at $620), some thought me crazy. They no longer think that and many have commented that I could see the future. This is clearly not the case but we all can see that the FRN is worthless and anything other than an FRN is a smart thing.
You should only be buying gold if you already have a long-term supply of non-perishable food, ammunition, and guns. All of these are also useful in survival and for trade. .22 ammo is still cheap and does the job nicely and there are a lot of folk out there who know that it is also useful as money.
"The Revolution was effected before the War commenced. The Revolution was in the minds and hearts of the people; a change in their religious sentiments of their duties and obligations ... This radical change in the principles, opinions, sentiments, and affections of the people, was the real American Revolution." -- John Adams, February 13, 1818
Gold
Gold will drop to 850 or lower
From Goldseek.com
2008 Gold Price Prediction
So what about 2008?
In 2008, my minimum target is $925 based upon a continuation of the trends already in place and mentioned above.
We could, however, see a spike to between $975 and $1025 if, in addition,
1. The credit crisis escalates and the central banks are forced to inject substantially more "liquidity" into the financial system than anticipated; or
2. If tensions escalate to red alert status in the Middle East, or if a decline in U.S. presence in Iraq rekindles religious tensions, the bombings and violence in general (with the consequent effect on relations with Iran); or
3. Suppy problems escalate in the physical gold market causing a gold crunch; or
4. If we get another major surprise like we did with the credit crisis in 2007 (Yes, something else could crawl from under the rock);
Note: There could be a sharp mid-year correction in the gold price, if we get a strong run-up from the $810 level in the early months of 2008. However, I believe, in the wake of such a run-up, support is likely to come in the current range or just below. Conversely, we could get an out-of-the-box price spike should we see three or more of the events mentioned above converge with their full ill-effect upon the economy and financial markets. These are indeed dangerous times, more dangerous than at any time since the gold bull market began.
http://news.goldseek.com/...
Bob Chapman says
"the worldwide financial system has become too big to bail". Fantastic article here http://news.goldseek.com/...
Don't worry - Be happy
Gold
Gold now at 919, many experts predict it will fall to between 800 and 850
Technically, we're looking at $850
So as far as I can explain it, the quickness that an asset moves away from today's price, is psychologically and emotionally stressing.
So a 1-day drop from $1000 to $900 is a 10% drop, very hard to look at your portfolio... and as a result, people get discouraged. If it took 10 days to get from $1000 to $900 at $10/day, you'd not have so many discouraged people... sure they'd be still discouraged, but not as emotionally stressing.
Also when it moves that far that fast, people think... well, it'll probably go lower, and so they hold off on buying, which then begets the action of it going lower.
Why $850? Gold spent a long time trading at that number. Lots of folks consider it a 'fair' price.
So yes, emotionally, the market is set up to go no lower than $850.
Another perspective on gold and silver
My perspective is that I am not necessarily trying to "make money." I am just a poor guy trying to get along but I don't have a whole lot of silver and gold "in my mattress" in case the whole thing tanks. What will I have to buy or barter? Seems gold and silver make the most sense to me. Maybe it will turn out I am buying at a premium (I don't think so yet) but I am not looking to buy a silver round at $20 and sell when it hits $25. I am looking to buy a silver round at $20 and putting it away for a (torrential) rainy day.
you figure it out.
gold is always the salvation of man. just think about all the rich guys in iraq holding dinars those dinars are worthless but if they had gold they could have stepped over the border to iran and still been rich. when the dollar collaspes and it will i will take my gold across the border to canada and ill still be whole. jsut because america is fucked up doesnt mean the rest of the world will be.
doesnt matter man
im a stockbroker and i have been buying since 300 i bought some stocks yesterday to watch them go down today. guess what it doesnt matter. bernanke and paulson can try to game the phony market and suppress the price of gold for a day or two but were going higher much higher. its not gonna matter. i remember at 430 saying damn i could have waited a day and got it for 400 it means nothing.
Have a look at some charts
Have a look at some charts here. These are characteristic of "bubble" tops.
Charts 1: Nasdaq ( set "time" to custom, then 3/17/1992 to 3/5/2000. Set "frequency to monthly)
http://bigcharts.marketwa...
Chart 2: Gold
http://futures.tradingcha...
This is a VERY short list of such examples.
Throughout history it is found that when EVERYONE comes to believe that a market has only one direction, that is the point at which major reversals begin. And at the beginning of major reverals, EVERYONE sees it as a buying oppurtunity. Virtually NO ONE sees a trend reversal coming, and fundamentals always support their vision of a continued trend. What few ever realize is that it is human emotion that drives the trend, not fundamentals. The emotion that drives the trend up is created FROM the fundamentals. Once EVERYONE has succumbed to the forces of emotion, then all buyers have bought, all money is invested. And without MORE money coming in, the trend collapses.
I believe, that due to the enormous amount of coverage that metals are getting, and the overwhelming belief that the price of gold has only one direction, that a major trend reversal is near. The majority of Fools ( the general public) ALWAYS buy near the top.
We will have Deflation, not inflation, and one (only one) of the reasons I say this is because the overwhelming fear is hyperinflation. Falling housing prices are deflationary, falling stock markets are deflationary, rising defaults are deflationary. Yet all a screaming HYPERINFLATION!!!
Once deflation shows its face all assets, including commodities, will begin to fall in unison. What at first appears to be a dip will reveal itself latter as an ideal selling oppurtunity.
Cash is King, and currently metals are NOT cash. They are a commodity. If you don't believe this, take a Silver Dollar that you have to pay $20 for, go into the grocery store and see how much you can buy with it...you will discover it has a purchase value of 1 Susan B Anthony.
bullshit period
gold cannot be a bubble first of all bubbles only occur when everyone is on board right now other than myself and all my clients you cant find more than 5 percent if that of the population buying gold investment. give it a break when 60 percent are in gold ill be a seller. second gold is lass than halfway to the infltion adjusted price of 1980 which was 850 gold should be 2000 when you look at where oil is today. well why isnt it? simple the central banker like bernanke are the only seller and the only reason they do it is to try and hide the monetary inflation. not gonna work. russia and china will buy it all up in a heartbeat. america is broke already the final straw will come when the gold coffers are empty and that day is quickly arriving. ill see you in a couple of days with gold at over 1000 again. they cannot cap what wants to go higher. money is sitting on the sideline waiting to pour back in again i know i am and ive got million more to invest.
when was the last time there
when was the last time there was a deflationary period?
there arent any
they will inflate or die. i cant believe people are so fucking stupid. what do you think they are doing right now. expanding or tightening the money supply. what you have is stageflation my friends i lived thru it in the 70's only this time its gonna be 100 times worst since in the 70's everyone had saving and lo=ive within there means with no debt.
In the 1930's, we had a
In the 1930's, we had a deflationary depression --- prices actually dropped for several years, relative to 1929.
I think it will be just a little different this time, though. Our noble Fed chairman, Helicopter Ben, has already assured us of that!
That's pretty much what I
That's pretty much what I figured which would counter what the other guy is saying. But it seems like its more probable we'll enter a inflationary depression rather than have deflation. Besides isn't helicopter ben going to inflate the hell out of the currency to avoid the depression?
How
is "Helicopter Ben" going to inflate the Hell out of the currency?
The Last Inflationary Period
was in 1929, near the end of the year. At that time an inflation rate of 21% turned to deflation near overnight.
The Last Inflationary Period
was in 1929, near the end of the year. At that time an inflation rate of 21% turned to deflation near overnight.
Scary stuff! However, I don't think gold will deflate
cause govt. will realize they have to have a sound currency, and this is international. Gold is being bought by Asians.
Fluctuate, yes, Deflate, no. Last time that gold deflated the Feds put interest up to 10%. I knew MANY people who had a few hundred thousand in the bank and they lived well on that 10% interest! Yes, back in the 1980s you could live well on 20-30K!
Now----if the feds did that NOW, there would be an instant depression because in order to pay the simple bank acct. 10% they have to charge alot more to borrow...Back then I think houses were even higher than 15% at times! (or hovering about there---I was too young to have a house)
Crystal ball.
There are still a few tricks up their sleaves, for example, Central banks in Brazil and other countries last week liberated export companies from having to bring the dollars back. This means they can leave the dollars they earn in the States in banking institutions in the States. This should keep some banks liquid, but at a risk to those companies putting their dollars on deposit. This also means that there will be less dollars on the markets in those countries where the dollars would have gone, keeping the dollar from falling even further, although the Brazilian Central bank had to buy dollars today since it fell close to 2%. So it isn't just the Federal Reserve that is acting in desperation, it is all Central Banks around the world doing what they can to keep the dollar afloat. But eventually the dollar will sink, just a matter of time, perhaps in 6 months - 2 years. But I think more than likely not before the election in November, but I really don't have a crystal ball.
If you can handle the precious metal rollercoaster
maybe you shouldn't buy.
You are looking at the trees and not the forest, my friend.
________________
Good luck to us all,
Lisa C.
www.women4ronpaul.com
I am no "expert" but
...but I think the market will tank tomorrow, probably losing the 400 it gained today and gold and wilver will be back up again.
Also, the fed is running out of rate cut possibilities. the overnight rate is at 2.25%. Even after the rate cuts after 911, it went to 1% so they can only do another 1.25%. People will borrow now ONLY to pay off higher interest debts. There isn't going to be new spending. PEople are scared and will save, and with rates so low, that means they can't do CDs or even savings accounts. They will be buying gold and driving up the price even more.
I'm just curious to know how
I'm just curious to know how you and the majority of the posters here would consider your present financial status. I come here everyday almost, and I really like reading what everyone has to say.
Personally I would consider my financial status comfortable and independent. Not exactly rich, but I don't have to work everyday to pay off any debts. I have investments in real estate, and could go for a year or two with out having to put a minute into a job if I wanted to.
How's about everyone here? I only ask because of the amount of advice and predictions that gets given here. Thanks.
btw, I totally support Ron Paul.
First of all, when gold was
First of all, when gold was at 1003 this morning , you should not have paid more than 1010 I would think...(if this post is from today, Tuesday).
second, todays drop is actually a dip, BUY... the fed rate drop will cause the dollar to pludge by friday and gold to shoot back up.
Tim
Join the PPA for Free
www.pokerplayersalliance....
Referred by Tim Kelly TXPPA
What do you think
the Asian buyers are thinking, when they come back the next morning to see that the opening price of gold is significantly less than the price they paid just hours ago? They will probably think that westerners are insane, selling the yellow metal for less than it's true value, so they'll keep buying it and taking the price higher until close of business in the east. How long can the Fed and other western central banks continue their attempted manipulation of the gold price? We will soon see.
they have been doing a good job
of letting me and my clients buy back in. you got to love the fed.wow america is really filled to the brink with stupid freaking people its incredible. i speak to large group and sometimes i go home shaking my head in amazement. what the hell do they teach here beside drugs sports sex and rock and roll. wow not much time left folks. the rich know how stupid we are thats why they can get away with what they do. its not their fault its the people they deserve what they get.
You bought at $1030, If you
You bought at $1030, If you buy an equal amount tomorrow at $978, your in at $1004 overall. Or if you wait and it goes down some more your in for less. I wouldn't wait to long.
You will love you purchase in the next year or so.
I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies.The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people to whom it properly belongs.
Thomas Jefferson
Up at night down during the day.
Already back up to 984 and the markets haven't even opened yet in the East. They are the ones that have been driving it up to begin with. They drive it up by buying and the West is selling and driving it down. They have to trade their 1.8 trillion Federal Reserve notes for something of value.
Don't get escared
It's just a bump from the fed rate cut. It'll be back with a vengeance!
$$$$
pay attention to every time the fed drops the rate gold goes down for the day while the DOW will go up
Hrmmm...I recall...
reading something here (i believe) that gold would drop in price a bit around this time, but hang onto it - it will jump back up soon enough.
Real demand vs. real value.
I agree with you about canned foods and supplies, they aren't as easy to manipulate as gold and silver. Although gold and silver are good investments. I just think that the Central Banks around the world can pull dollars off the market enough to protect it from falling for a while, but eventually it will become pointless. Gold and silver can also be manipulated, since the media controls the numbers and emotions of people. However the price of food at the market, usually doesn't depend on the media as much as real demand.
Know how you feel
You did the "buy" part. Now, just sit back and do the "hold" part. The purchasing power of your dollars will be protected, at the very least.
For Liberty!
Just
Just saw an 'expert" on CNBC.... said gold will go to 800-850 in 30 days or so..Not my prediction, just his
Buy on any dip
Financial services giant Citigroup has increased its long-term outlook for gold prices.
In a note to clients, metals analyst John Hill said that gold bullion could see further growth on the back of ongoing fears over a US recession and the effects of the global credit crunch, Reuters reports.
Overall, the forecast for average gold prices was increased to $900 an ounce in 2008 from $750, with 2009 expected to see average prices of $950 compared with the previous prediction of $800.
Meanwhile, an average $1,000 an ounce price is expected for 2010. The revised outlook comes shortly after Randgold Resources corporate finance manager Victor Matfield told Mineweb that with current economic conditions unlikely to change in the near future, the forecast for gold prices is particularly positive.
"Should inflation accelerate while [interest] rates are locked under economic weakness, gold could spike near past inflation-adjusted highs," Mr Hill remarked.
He added: "We view this as an extremely hospitable macro environment and believe the ongoing investment-driven demand phase will continue for gold, particularly as the broader investor base is not yet fully involved."
http://goldnews.bullionva...
Interest rate
Interest rate cuts("printing" funny money) takes 6-24 months to percolate through the economy resulting in deflation.
Quit viewing gold as a 90's style investment with fabulous returns. That's not why you should be buying bullion. This is just confusing people. Some people will end hurting and left only with worthless dollars because of this type of "advice".
NOBODY who understands the current situation and the prospect of a totally devalued currency is suggesting to buy gold for return on investment.
Quit freaking out and freaking others out over the daily fluctuation in the price of gold/silver.
Jim Rogers, the "adviser to investment banks", who has always been silent with respect to advice to the common person is openly recommending that people LIQUIDATE their holdings (including stocks!) and have only cash and a percentage in gold/silver. Listen to him!
Percolates resulting in "deflation"? Can you elaborate on this?
Am I missing something? or did you mean inflation?
"The question is not who will let me- the question is who will stop me" - Ayn Rand
Oops...
... INFLATION.
Pardon me in my moment of lysdexia!
=P
Easy there mart
I think it's just a case of "Doh! If only I'd waited 8 hours!" This is probably common with us newbies.
Week before last I got silver at $21.02 thinking the climb was on. Next day it dipped below twenty. While my brain said "Don't worry, you're in long term" my gut still said "Damn..."
I understand...
... but watching any investment will drive you nuts. It's a "long-term" thing, the same advice given for stock market investing.
The mistake you made was
The mistake you made was thinking that the rate cut would immediately make gold go up. Remember, YOU know that it is bad, but wall street and the sheepish masses will temporarily think its good and sell off gold and go into stocks, making gold drop. The market doesn't follow logic short-term, it follows emotion.
That said, gold is going to go back up in April. Mid-year might bring it back down after the stimulus, but if you invest on the drops throughout the year, you'll do as well as you can. It's just that people tend to think the opposite and only want to buy when it's heading upwards. Then they get hit with a correction and get paranoid...
correct
^ good summary
food
I have heard people say they do not think it will be bad, that it will be more like Japan, that there is no depression coming, and they may be right. However, if you really want to be free of this type of slavery, you must become self-reliant. What trade you must do, you should do with your neighbor. Buying food and being able to survive without the infrastructure of the government takes away a huge chunk of the power they use to enslave us.
If your investments are as secure as you can make them, do not forget to invest in protecting yourself against the worst case scenario. It is not doomsday-ish, it is prudent. These are uncertain times, and people who make flat statements about what will or will not happen have yet to accept that most basic reality.
Depends on Your POV
I should think your headline would better read, "Gold $978 YIPPEEEE!" -- because it's a good time to buy, on the dips! Don't worry about what the Fed is trying to say gold is worth -- they're just trying to apply their fanciful imaginations (worth in U.S. dollars) to fact (intrinsic value of precious metals). Gold and silver will hold their own value, regardless of who says how many FRNs they are allegedly worth today, tomorrow, or in the future.
That being said -- I haven't yet purchased any gold, myself...does one have to purchase 1oz minimum? Or is it available in smaller amounts, for those of us (ahem) without a grand to spend on anything?
My 2c
You might look into silver to preserve a smaller savings account. A 10 oz. bar of silver goes for around $200 now. Pre-1964 "silver" quarters are worth about $3.50 ea.
If you buy smaller silver or gold coins, they cost more per ounce than larger pieces.
I also consider canned tuna a good investment for my family, since I know prices are going to go way up, as the dollar falls.
Maybe rechargeable batteries would be a good investment for your family. There are as many good hard assets to invest in as there are ideas.
For Liberty!
You can buy...
1/10th oz gold bullion coins among other denominations.
See here for a description of the various denominations:
http://www.blanchardonlin...
**** NOTE: I am NOT recommending Blanchard's to buy from. I know nothing about them. They have a good description of the various American Eagles you can get.
Buy local with cash so the govt doesn't know you have them! As in past history bartering with gold and silver may become illegal at some point. Don't use credit cards or checks that they can trace. Gold was confiscated by the US government in the Great Depression.
Also, ONLY buy "bullion coins". "Bullion" means the coins have a set amount and purity of metal and are as good as bullion "bricks" by weight.
relax sir, yes, that is the
relax sir, yes, that is the general trend, the dollar is weaker... the markets will react for a day or 2 very well
in a few days you will see metals and commodities coming back up ..
take a breather and dont worry too much