Silver and Gold plummeting
Posted March 20th, 2008 by chilly willy
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Keep an eye on gold to fall into the high $890's by mid next month and silver to hit $14...Then lock those prices up because after the plummet they are going to skyrocket again by August. Sweet.
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Silver/Gold ratio! very important...
The ratio of Silver to Gold in the planet is approximately 17:1
ie. there are 17 oz of Silver for every oz of Gold...
The historic ratio of price Silver to Gold is 16:1
The current ratio? 54:1!!!!!
1oz of Gold currently gets you 54oz of Silver...
Dont buy Gold...buy Silver...
My personal strategy...if the Ag:Au ratio is:
over 20 I trade Gold for Silver and only buy Silver...
under 14 I trade Silver for Gold...and only buy Gold...
between 14.1 and 19.9 I buy and hold both...
Dave
Teaching Flying...and talking Ron Paul...and Liberty!
Here's what I know steve
Here's what I know steve forbes was mocking Schiff eight months ago, now forbes is mostly agreeing with Schiff (see fox business March 18th).
Forbes is saying we are destroying the dollar. Schiff seems to think gold will top out in about five years.
That being said there does seem to be gold mania occurring and I bought in the 900 range. The coin dealers I talked to the other day said he had only sold three ounces of gold that day but business had been increasing. While, I was in the store a guy bought a 20 oz silver bar, something I haven''t ever seen before. Most of the people in the coin shops are avid ron paul supporters so while the four percent of the population may be going crazy for gold the rest have not, would be my guess. It feels like gold mania among ron paul supporters but the rest of the country is not paying attention just yet.
Exactly
The "mainstream" (meaning out of it) investors have not caught on.
I agree we will have a pull back and then LOCK AND LOAD.
When the economy fully tanks there is a decent chance the US$ will be destroyed trying to "save" a broken economy.
Those who hold a cool amount of cash and metals through the decline will be sitting pretty.
margin calls and hedges
Precious metals and oil futures have just been the hedge against the financial industry meltdown that we are seeing. The time came to tap these hedges because they are getting desperate. This caused a drop in the prices of these commodities, which raised the value of the dollar, which fueled gains in the stock market, which dropped the value of these commodities. I'm guessing by next week the metal markets will have turned and we'll see climbing prices again. That and the Fed bailouts and handouts will begin to be felt and we'll be seeing more inflation. It takes a few spending cycles before it is actually felt and not just anticipated.
Free and Brave
or Cradle to Grave
You can't have both
That's why God made options
First of all why would any seasoned trader be talking about participating in a market that the whole world is focused on.
You don't get rich competing with the herd. You get rich by positioning yourself in a market BEFORE the herd realizes anything is happenning.
If you must satisfy the fetish for a beating in the metals markets, try shopping for "out of the money" options.
"PunJab! Bring me my checkbook!"
Have a look at some charts
Have a look at some charts here. These are characteristic of tops.
Charts 1: Nasdaq ( set "time" to custom, then 3/17/1992 to 3/5/2000. Set "frequency to monthly)
http://bigcharts.marketwa...
Chart 2: Gold
http://futures.tradingcha...
This is a VERY short list of such examples.
Throughout history it is found that when EVERYONE comes to believe that a market has only one direction, that is the point at which major reversals begin. And at the beginning of major reverals, EVERYONE sees it as a buying oppurtunity. Virtually NO ONE sees a trend reversal coming, and fundamentals always support their vision of a continued trend. What few ever realize is that it is human emotion that drives the trend, not fundamentals. The emotion that drives the trend up is created FROM the fundamentals. Once EVERYONE has succumbed to the forces of emotion, then all buyers have bought, all money is invested. And without MORE money coming in, the trend collapses.
I believe, that due to the enormous amount of coverage that metals are getting, and the overwhelming belief that the price of gold has only one direction, that a major trend reversal is near. The majority of Fools ALWAYS buy near the top.
We will have Deflation, not inflation, and one (only one) of the reasons I say this is because virtually NO ONE expects it.
Well, for the sake of being
Well, for the sake of being devil's advocate here, I could counter that just because the majoirty believe something, or the fact that it is regarded as accepted "wisdom", does not AUTOMATICALLY make it false. Stocks were falling in 1930, and assumed to be falling further, and yet did that then mean that it was a good buying opportunity because the majority believed otherwise? You are probably correct in the large majority of cases, but not always.
I made no statement
that that "AUTOMATICALLY" made it true. In fact, the words I used were "I believe".
In 1929 the markets began to crash, not 1930. By the spring of 1930, the markets had regained 50% of the loss, and Hoover canceled an emergency meeting of congress, telling them "Gentlemen, you've arrived too late, the Depression is over." Most thought it a good time to buy, that Fall of 1929 was just a large "dip".
I came into a bunch of coins...
30 dollars with Ike Eisenhower on them and about 80 half dollars with Kennedy on them. Are these worth anything? Thanks in advance
Depends on the dates...
...and in the case of the Ike dollars, the mintmarks. Kennedy halves AFTER 1969, have no silver in them. Just spend them like you would any other coin. Ike dollars aren't worth much more than face value, UNLESS they've got an "S" mintmark (before 1977). If they do, that means they have at least a little bit of silver in them (albeit not much). Nevertheless, those cartwheels still FEEL pretty neat (at least). Much better than the crappy, quarter-sized "dollars" they crank out these days....
http://groups.yahoo.com/g...
What are the dates.
________________
Good luck to us all,
Lisa C.
www.women4ronpaul.com
1976
On the Ikes
meh just read that these
meh just read that these were the first coins not to be minted in a precious metal
I bought a little Silver today
seemed like the best day of the week to do it... lol
Better rare coins are much
Better rare coins are much less volatile. Buy slightly better date Saints in MS-65.
Put a few away for a rainy day.
Tom
http://www.usrarecoininve...
If you bought gold high
try to buy some silver while it is down. Even if your big accounts are tapped out or tied up in droopy-priced gold, scraping up the money for even a few ounces of silver will help reduce the overall cost of your "metal portfolio." From what I gather from some of the people who seem to give really good advice on these matters on this forum, it seems there is possibly greater potential for silver to gain (as a %) than gold. Or, if you are broke enough, get a gold pan, Even at the "depressed" price, or even at HALF the depressed price, you can still make money in a lot of this country with a gold claim!
Gold always falls upon the market opening in New York,
at the end of the week, the end of the month, and right before the shorts expire.
The manipulation is like clockwork.
While people around here cry about getting a 10%-off sale, the Indians, Russians, Chinese, etc. are buying up.
A dollar ralliy??? Yea sure, the economy is all fixed and purring like a kitten. Sell your gold and go buy some tech stocks and California real estate.
________________
Good luck to us all,
Lisa C.
www.women4ronpaul.com
How do you find out when shorts expire?
Is there a website?
If you are talking about put options
then check out www.ino.com. Futures and options information.
I've already lost my shirt!!
My IRA had been getting pummled in mutual funds.
My bank savings had seen its interest rate sharply go down.
So, like a fool I moved everything into Silver & Gold three weeks ago when they were at their all-time highs.
I have now lost the shirt off my back!
I have seen about a 35% drop now in my net worth (and, on top of earlier losses).
I don't know what to believe anymore.
I hope you didn't put more
I hope you didn't put more than 20% in metals. No advisor I've heard of ,even the extremely bearish, reccomend that. Jim rogers suggests agricultural commodities/ currencies/ and foriegn stocks. Schiff says 10-20% in gold and silver with the rest in foriegn stocks and currencies. John Williams reccomends 10-20% in gold and silver along with Gary North, last time I checked.
Anyone reading these forums talking about gold should keep in mind that just putting money in gold and silver is foolish. Would you put all your money in one stock? of course not.
DIVERSIFY DIVERSIFY DIVERSIFY.
I would basically agree with
I would basically agree with you, with one caveat: The 10% to 20% metals rule assumes "mormal" times. One could make a case for holding somewhat more gold and silver than 20% of total assets right now, depending on just how "normal" (or not") one judges current economic conditions. But agreed, 100% in metals, at any time, is extreme and probably unwise.
Don't worry
Just relax and it will come back. Just a manipulation going on and it will wear off. :O)
Don't worry, it will go WAY
Don't worry, it will go WAY beyond $1000 per ounce again soon. Hold onto the investment.
SUPPORT OUR FOUNDERS' AMERICA
Support the Constitution of the United States
It's long-term you worry about.
I bought 27 ounces of gold in 2004. My return investment if I sold today is over 200%. In 4 years. My wife's IRA in the same timeframe has netted -2% as of last week.
Don't sweat a short downturn... it's a longterm deal.
1 oz gold in 2004... 380$
Look at today.. ;)
You have not lost anything
You have not lost anything if you don't intend to buy anything right now. Imagine if you went to Hawaii for 1 month without keeping up with gold/silver prices, and the price went back up or beyond. Nothing would have happened to you. You should only be buying gold and silver as a store of wealth in a major currency crisis or as a longer term hedge against inflation. If that is the case, then you won't care what the price is day to day.
Welcome to the gold and silver rollercoaster.
This is what they do.
I've been riding this ride for a while.
________________
Good luck to us all,
Lisa C.
www.women4ronpaul.com
You should be happy
This kind of obvious buying opportunity doesn't come along often.
Hang in there - this too shall pass!
Did you get physical gold and or silver or certificates?
You are not a fool - have faith.
Now is the time to buy more! What I mean by "physical" silver, is you must actually buy it and take custody of it. Forget certificates.
Trust only yourself.
I bought ETFs
I don't know how to redeem gold & silver coins and I was concerned about trading markups, etc. and getting ripped off.
ETFs seemed simple and elegant, and easily converted back into cash.
Sorry, I'm new to silver/gold...what are "etf"s?
I bought silver yesterday, today and last week (first timer!) I am paying cash and holding it physically. Mixture of "junk" silver and "troy ounces" I am planning on buying more next week if I can afford it and if it goes down to around 15 ish? Gold is sorta out of the question right now or I would be buying that too if I could...oh well I am under-employed right now so to speak....regardless, I have another question if someone could please help me....the dude today at the coin shop charged me 6% sales tax the guy I bought from last week did not. Also the guy today told me he was doing me a favor by including 2 Canadian maple leaves and a Liberty dollar in my purchase of .999 troy ounces because he said the ones w/an actual face value are actually "worth more" - I don't get it? Is there anyone out there who will have pity on me and help me understand this because I have a sneaking suspicion I am somehow being taken advantage of.
PS I paid 17.50 for each pure ounce today cash and carry - what do you guys think? Thanks in advance, Betsy
Electronic Fund Transfers?
A metallic account is established whereby someone else holds your metal and transfers ownership of all or part of it when you so direct. Advantage is (theoretically), you can't lose it and it will be there when you need to purchase something on line. Disadvantage is that when the balloon pops, someone else has possession of your metal and you get nothing.
As for Maples & Walking Liberties, the clerk was probably also doing himself a favor and dumping pieces that he couldn't otherwise move, but he was doing you no harm either, as they are both respectable instruments with recognizable value and reliable purity. At .999, an ounce is an ounce is an ounce.
Can't say about sales tax, as I don't know the law in your jurisdiction. Here in Ohio, if you're going to take it home and cook it and eat it, no sales tax, otherwise, grab your ankles and grit your teeth.
Viva Agora!
Professor Bernardo de la Paz
www.citizenduquesne.org
Don't worry, Silver and Gold
Don't worry, Silver and Gold prices will go back up.
The recent drop was mostly because banks and funds had to cover shorts by today, so they had to sell off commodities to pay for it. It is also why the market was up. Covering shorts brings markets up.
This started the fall, then others jumped ship to take profits and because some uninformed just got scared.
If your in for the long haul, you'll fine. Go to kitco.com and check the historical charts. This isn't unusual.
Options Contracts expired today
That explains the drop in ALL commedities
Exactly right.
________________
Good luck to us all,
Lisa C.
www.women4ronpaul.com
How depressing
I made a *special effort yesterday* to buy junk silver (90%), all of $28 face value.
I bought it for "Y2K thinking" of having something to use to *buy* survival items from others, if necessary (like the toilet paper mentioned!)
In that sense, its up-and-down value is irrelevant.
However, I should probably buy more now, like "dollar cost averaging" with stock purchases.
You've all heard of Murphy's Law.
What about O'Toole's Law? "Murphy is an optimist"!
Weather forecast for Chicago is a *major snowstorm* after a sunny, 50-degree day today. Guess more junk silver can wait a day or two:(
I bought yesterday too
but I'm holding long term....this too shall pass and it's to the moon Alice, to the moon!
Laurie..... buy all you can!
Laurie..... buy all you can! you'll be glad you did!
I'm going with Peter Schiff
I'm going with Peter Schiff on this one. This is a 'dead cat' bouncing. The FED hasn't done anything to improve the situation of the dollar.. they didn't raise interest rates, they merely didn't lower it as much as expected. That's still devaluing the dollar.
you are probably right
they want to shake out the suckers first
price predictions
Nobody knows. Some think they know about where prices of gold, silver, stocks, etc. are going, but nobody really knows.
If you're worried about price fluctuations in silver and gold, you're buying it for the wrong reasons. Traders should be off on their own speculation forum, not here spreading their fantasies and crystal ball prognostications.
You are correct. I asked
You are correct. I asked questions on a thread recently because I wanted to hedge against the dollar and I really didn't know much about (I got some useful information from some kind people), but at this point it sounds simply like a "trading forum." People are trying to trade gold? Fine, an occasional thread is okay -- we have a wide variety of topics here. But there shouldn't be a hijacking of this forum either. I own some silver I recently bought, but I'm not watching the market because I'm worried about my portfolio and, if I was, I wouldn't be discussing it here. I think it's misplaced.
ehhhhhh i don't think so!
ehhhhhh i don't think so! if you want to know where the markets are going look at the cot traders report...
What's the deal with the cot
What's the deal with the cot traders report?