GOP Still Trying to Fill Blank in Key Illinois Race

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GOP Still Trying to Fill Blank in Key Illinois Race

By Jack Mellyn, CQ StaffTue Mar 25, 12:07 AM ET

The Feb. 5 congressional primaries in Illinois were supposed to settle the November general election matchups for the House seats of two retiring Republican incumbents. But the unexpected withdrawals of two candidates forced the Democrats to scramble before finding a new contender in the 18th District -- left open by seven-term incumbent Ray LaHood -- and has the Republicans facing a deadline to fill their vacant ballot slot in outgoing Rep. Jerry Weller's 11th District.

The Republicans -- as has so often been the case during the party's difficult stretch in congressional politics since their 2006 downturn -- are in the more stressful situation in the 11th District.

The 18th, a western Illinois district that includes Peoria and part of the Springfield suburbs, has a fairly strong Republican lean. Its voters gave President Bush 58 percent in 2004, LaHood never faced a close general election contest, and the GOP has nominated Aaron Schock, a young state representative seen by some in his party as a potential rising star. So the Democrats' candidate was bound to be something of a longshot, even had their original choice -- Dick Versace, a former college and professional basketball coach -- not dropped out before the primary for personal reasons. Party officials are pleased that their recently named replacement candidate, Colleen Callahan, has at least some public profile as an agriculture broadcaster.

The Republicans, on the other hand, were rocked back on their heels in the 11th District when their candidate, local official Tim Baldermann, announced two weeks after his primary victory over two other candidates that he was surrendering his nomination, citing fundraising difficulties and his responsibilities as mayor of the Chicago suburb of New Lenox and as police chief in nearby Chicago Ridge.

The GOP already faced a serious challenge to hold the seat. The 11th -- which ranges from exurban Chicago through urban areas in Joliet, Normal, Bloomington and Kankakee, all surrounded by rural territory -- is much less firmly Republican than the 18th: Bush took 53 percent there in 2004 and Weller won a modest 55 percent in 2006 in his seventh and final House victory. And the Democrats came up with one of their strongest recruits for a takeover bid in this election cycle: state Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson, who ran unopposed in her party's primary.

The Republicans' efforts became much more complicated when Baldermann's stunning withdrawal left them until just April 7 to meet the deadline under state law to replace him on the ballot. A month has passed since the candidate's dropout, and GOP officials are still looking.

Local Republicans who have been mentioned as potential candidates for the vacated nomination include Martin Ozinga, president of the Ozinga Bros. concrete company, and Harry Bond, president of Monical's Pizza Corp. State Republican Party leaders are expected to announce a timeline for choosing a nominee this week.

Dick Kavanagh, chairman of the Republican organization in Will County at the southern edge of metro Chicago, said district Republican leaders had spent more than 12 hours at a March 16 meeting discussing the situation and meeting with potential candidates.

"Unfortunately, someone who I thought was a terrific candidate ended up pulling out of the race," said Kavanagh of Baldermann. "I was obviously very disappointed with him for doing that."

"[Halvorson] has been running and raising money for six months now, so we're six months behind in that sense," said Kavanagh, referring to the Democratic nominee whose most recent report to the Federal Election Commission showed more than $427,000 in receipts and $393,000 cash on hand as of Jan. 16. Baldermann, by comparison, had raised slightly more than $100,000 and had $50,000 in cash on hand as of that date, with three weeks still to go before his primary election.

Nonetheless, Kavanagh said he believed the race is still winnable for the Republicans, as he signaled a strategy of trying to cast Halvorson as too liberal for the district. "The Democrats have been kind enough to give us a candidate who we can contrast with" on the issues," Kavanagh said.

CQ Politics currently rates the 11th District race as Democrat Favored.

The Republicans have looked to be in better shape all along in the 18th District. Schock, already a state lawmaker at the age of 26, quickly established himself as the front-runner and took the nomination with 72 percent of the vote in the Republican primary. He raised almost $800,000, making him one of the top-funded non-incumbent candidates so far this election cycle, and reported $276,424 cash on hand as of Jan. 16.

Schock also may be advantaged by the fact that he represents the south side of Peoria, the 18th District's biggest urban area, in the Illinois General Assembly. That will make Democratic nominee Callahan, who also is based in Peoria, compete harder for votes in a city that has a Democratic lean.

Callahan, who announced her candidacy on March 11, admits that she faces an uphill fundraising battle, but says that her contacts and relationships from her time in broadcasting and business will be helpful. She cites a family tradition of public service, and argues that "experience, as an employee, businesswoman, volunteer, wife and mother" will be an asset to her in her race against her youthful opponent.

CQ Politics rates the 18th District race as Republican Favored.

The 11th and 18th district races contribute to the big disparity between the major parties in the numbers of open seats. The Republicans are defending the seats of 25 of their incumbents who chose not to run for re-election this year, with 22 retiring and three running for other offices. The party has one other open seat in Maryland's 1st District, where GOP incumbent Wayne T. Gilchrest lost his Feb. 12 primary, and is defending the vacant seats of three resigned Republican members that will be filled in special elections being held this spring.

By comparison, just six House Democrats are voluntarily not seeking re-election, with three retiring and three seeking other offices. The party also is defending the open seat of Albert R. Wynn, another Maryland incumbent who lost a Feb. 12 primary, and the vacant seat of the late California Rep. Tom Lantos that will be filled in a special election.

The two open-seat contests in Illinois are among six House races in the state that are expected to be competitive this year. The Republicans are bidding to take back the 14th District seat, until recently occupied by resigned former House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert, that they lost to Democrat Bill Foster in a March 8 special election, and the seat in the GOP-leaning 8th District that Democrat Melissa Bean won a big 2004 upset and defended successfully in 2006. Meanwhile, Republican Mark Steven Kirk of the politically competitive 10th District faces a rematch of his close 2006 race with Democrat Dan Seals, and Democrats are staging a longshot bid against freshman Republican Peter Roskam in the 6th District.

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