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Hyperinflation soon: ShadowStats economist John Williams
Posted April 26th, 2008 by Papillon2
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Below, a few snippets from Howard Ruff's article "Hyperinflationary Depression" 4-21-08, in which he quotes extensively from economist John Williams' ShadowStats newsletter.
"With the creation of massive amounts of new fiat (not backed by gold) dollars will come the eventual complete collapse of the value of the U.S. dollar and related dollar-denominated paper assets."
" …a law professor at Harvard and The University of California, Berkeley, who experienced the Weimar Republic hyperinflation, said, 'It was horrible. Horrible! Like lightning it struck. No one was prepared. You cannot imagine the rapidity with which the whole thing happened. The shelves in the grocery stores were empty. You could buy nothing with your paper money."'
"…the still-unfolding banking solvency crisis has confirmed the Fed’s and the U.S. government’s willingness to spend whatever money they have to create in order to keep the financial system from imploding."
"The circumstance envisioned ahead is not one of double- or triple- digit annual inflation, but more along the lines of seven- to 10-digit inflation seen in other circumstances during the last century."
As for timing: "Again, the current circumstance will evolve into a hyperinflationary depression, then a great depression. Although such is not likely much before 2010, or after 2018, the financial end game for the current markets will tend to come sooner rather than later and will break with surprising speed when it hits."
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Tough Sell
Certain and immediate discomfort is a tough political sell, even if the alternative is disaster. We must face the facts, anchor the currency to gold and silver as our Constitution demands, and weather the coming recession or we face a depression of horrific proportions and a possible cataclysm that will forever reshape our Union and our lives. Maybe not for the better.
Most Americans are much more comfortable staying asleep or blaming secret cabals or evil corporations or simply chanting their mantra that "Greed is Bad", and that somehow big government will fix the problem.
Failures should be allowed to fail, and resources allowed to reallocate.
The solution is economic sanity, and a Constitutional bi-metallic currency, but Joe SixPack and Suzy Spritzer are having none of it. At least not while American Idol is on.
The Republican Party is desperately maneuvering to put Democrat fingerprints on the coming Depression and Devaluation. Why else would a commie disaster like Sid Vicious be getting any serious consideration from the likes of Stop-the-Sean-Hannity or Billow Wryly?
In addition to promoting the Paul campaign, also investigate the Constitution Party and the Libertarian Party candidacies (as possible fall back positions), and buy canned goods, dry goods, water, liquor, ammunition, toilet paper,silver, and gold.
Viva Agora!
Professor Bernardo de la Paz
www.citizenduquesne.org
I like your comment about the Republicans.
They are handing over the coming calamity to the Democrats. Interesting conclusion.
I would also add to your "to buy" list: feminine hygiene and birth control.
___________
Lisa C.
http://www.women4ronpaul....
Mahalo for your Kokua
Lisa,
Thank you for amending my list. I guess my present circumstance precluded my thinking of your suggested items, but even for a single guy, they would be good to have -- whether he hopes to curry fair favor, or simply as valuable trade items.
Cherchez la Femme!
Professor Bernardo de la Paz
www.citizenduquesne.org
seems to me he would have
seems to me he would have had everyone buying gold a little late to the party.
ruff wrote a book on the
ruff wrote a book on the coming bad years and how to prosper in 1978?
wasn't he about ten years late. Couldn't somebody have just read the newspaper in 1978? That would have only been useful til' about 1982-83 when the stock market did a 20 year straight vertical line.
RUFF=no credibility!
Because he couldnt have foreseen the level of market
manipulation, he has no credibility?
Were you even born in '78?
___________
Lisa C.
http://www.women4ronpaul....
GREED of Hyper-Inflation callers
I just cannot help sensing so much greed and potential tricks behind these hyper-inflation calls.
I cannot help but imagine some guys secretly thinking something like... hehehe, come on hyper-inflation, so that I can pay off my debt...OR...hehehe come on people, buy into these hyper-inflation calls. I'm already in gold, silver and commodities. You will make me rich....OR...hehehe, we, the international bankers, own you, we just need to hook the last group of people. They will buy into these hyper-inflation calls and buy commodities. Then, we will raise the interest rates...OR...hehehe, we, the secret cabal, have a plan to crash the economy to take over the world, but we must follow the plan, and we will print money to keep the economy afloat until the set date when we will raise the interest rates...or something like that.
Anyway, I'm pretty scared about our economic future, but personally, I am not worried about hyper-inflation at all. I am worried so much more about how to service debt, liquidity cruch and how more people are becoming unable to service their debt.
"first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks...will deprive the people of all property" -Thomas Jefferson
And, do you remember "Irrational exuberance"?
The famous speech by Alan Greenspan was in Dec 1996 and you know what happened to the stock market in 2000.
And on Sep 17, 2007, Greenspan sees double-digit rates
http://www.reuters.com/ar...
Could it be that this guy gives warnings a few years ahead?
"first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks...will deprive the people of all property" -Thomas Jefferson
I am curious:
What ever happened to the Wanta Plan? And would it make any difference?
I had heard about a deadline of March 30th for that idiot in the white house to sign something, and have heard nothing else. I'm not the brightest bulb on the tree, but if I'm not mistaken, this plan was in place to avoid just this type of thing. So if anyone can enlighten me, good or bad, I am curious.
Can anyone
name a single instance of 4 digit annual inflation in a country that DID NOT physically print ALL or a majority of their currency? The USA only physically prints about 5% of the "money" that is created.
http://www.dailypaul.com/...
I think your missing the
I think your missing the point. Yes we have deflation in the real estate market and other markets, However they are printing money (Inflating) to try and quell the deflation. It's not that lenders have lost confidence it's that people cannot sell their homes etc.for what they thought the market value was supposed to be or to cover their outstanding balance because the market value has dropped and they can't cover any outstanding loans if they drop the price enough for it to sell. So they are walking away.
If banks were smart they they would take market value of the property by the seller and forgive the balance that would keep the markets liquid and soft land the deflationary period by contracting the with the deflation. But they are greedy or ignorant or both so they will go belly up just like everyone else because they are stuck on an arbitrary values and unwilling to fluctuate with the market. This is why fiat currencies always end badly and sound money is necessary to avoid these things.
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Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty, or give me death. Patrick Henry
He may be right, but
He may be right this time, but don't do anything because Mr. Ruff says so. He's been wrong more that he's been right IMHO.
Gary North vigourously disagrees with the view that
Williams takes.
See his articles on LRC for more details.
Gary North
Gary North sounds to me suspiciously like an anti-gold establishment shill masquerading as a pro-freedom advocate. I give him very little credibility, what with him continually trumpeting his absurd deflationary scenario to lull the semi-informed into discounting or denying the possibility(or likelihood) of runaway inflation.
Not that I am necessarily defending Howard Ruff, who indeed HAS been wildly wrong in many of his predictions ---- or at least, wildly premature.
Remember Gary North and Y2K?
Y2K would lead to economic collapse and a return to the dark ages. Need I say more? Things are going to get bad, I agree, and perhaps even lead to a depression. However, when reading Gary North's predictions, be cautious in your interpretation.
Yes you need to say more.
Yes you need to say more. North wasn't predicting he was warning if it did not get fixed there could be major problems. His and many others warnings caused the problem to get fixed. The problem was real and had the potential to wreak havoc if not addressed.
Because many credible people in the IT world sounded the alarm it got addressed and was avoided. It's not as if he was predicting space aliens would land and take over the world.
I am still amazed at the many people who believe because the Y2K problem was fixed and avoided it must not have been a real problem.
I know I was one of those who spent nearly a year working on fixing the problem for a major corporation.
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Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty, or give me death. Patrick Henry
Good point about y2k...
Anyone have a link to what exactly he was predicting?
But regarding deflation, I think his reasoning is logical and coherent. (Gary rejects m3 and mZm as useful measures for rises in prices)
Yes, atrickpay, his
Yes, atrickpay, his arguments might hold some merit ---- IF one accepts the patently manipulated and absurdly low official CPI numbers and other government-propaganda-masquerading-as-economic-statistics, as Gary North implicitly does. Anyone who even suggests that the "official" CPI numbers bear any relation to reality has immediately discredited themself as an establishment stooge, as far as I'm concerned.
Thank you.
As far as I'm concerned, if you are an economist or market predicator that mentions the official CPI numbers as part of your formula, I stop reading.
Haha, yes I agree on the use of CPI to gauge...
the rate of price increases. It's a joke of a tool....
However, that is not how North employs it at all!
North knows that it is a joke. He employs it solely to compare its trend.
We have turned down the Weimar road
and now it's just a matter of how far down that road we'll go. Economic contraction plus inflation is inevirtable. How severe will it get? It depends on what we can do between now and November. Not one of the big 3 (McPain, Hills or Obama) has a chance to crash-land us, the only move they can execute is the nosedive. Only Ron Paul has the goods to help us get through this. I hope things are going well in Nevada today. We could use some good news.
Totally agree Gil....NOT ONE of those three offer a soft landing
only RP can land this thing in a condition that remotely resembles that which took flight and it's still going to be a bumpy ride that makes most people a bit sick to the tummy from turbulence.
Something to think about...
Because you're sharp. Additional Fed powers will prolong what is coming. I had a date in mind three years ago when some lines coming up met some lines coming down, basically. End of third quarter 2008. They've changed the rules. It will not alter the ending, in fact it will make it worse. However, they are buying time.
The next POTUS is the one that will have to handle this... it cannot go on much longer. All they have done is extend the badness to the next officeholder. I used to be a tad more optimistic, but I'm leaning now to RP is about our only chance.. ;(
I think a lot of people agree with you
That's why we are all so passionate, and hopeful, and out there working, we all know it is our only chance. Go, Ron Paul.
Pre 2004 I would have put what is happening out into the 2015
time frame but then we kept over spending on; war at Gov't level and consumer goods financed with borrowed home equity on the personal level. The personal spending both blessed by and promoted by Gov't in a miriad of ways, since it improved the GDP numbers and mitigated monetary inflation caused by Gov't over printing. The lethal combination moved that time frame up. In 2004 I was told that Hillary would be President next by someone who typically gets these things dead on. You know that after the damage is done, the sentiment of the citizenry will be along the line of "It's those tax and spend Democrats that ushered in the fall of Rome and gave rise of the next great hegemonic super power; the North American Union-crown jewel of the NWO". (By then it will no longer be a mere imperial tax on oil but on food as well)* It has to be so that the US population will for generations blame the loss of sovereignty on those that are viewed as militarily weak, ultra liberal (you fill in the blanks even though there's not a lot of difference between the parties at this point). We will be directed by controlled media to form that opinion at all costs which will then allow a strong Republican to "take the throne and rule" over what was once three proud Nations. That is, IFF we can get through the collapse without the world turning on us in some fashion I really don't wish to think about. I don't know for certain but eventually probably an overt and acknowledged dictatorship for security and prosperity reasons of course. We just may get to find out however, choppy waters are difficult to navigate and the rogue wave (that would be us, the percentage of the population that can see the big picture) can knock ya right off course.
We need RP. Without him, we lose the ball game!
*codex alimentarius (U.N.)- think.... control of food supply by forcing GMO seeds on the world (which coincidently require more fertilizer made from oil/gas industry) through the illegalization of open pollinators. A Monsanto, Dupont etc. 'Food Industrial Complex'. Once achieved, it would allow for an 'imperial tax' similar to that the U.S. currently has with oil; the ability as the world's reserve currency to effectively add a tax to a commodity via devaluation of the currency another Nation must hold to purchase it. Except in this case there won't be a need to fight in the Middle East to maintain control of the currency the seeds are valued in. A more nefarious possibility; the ability to entirely withhold seed/food until a stubborn Government bends to the will of the entity controlling said seed. Control the food supply=control the population of ANY Nation. It will be sold as the next best thing to sliced bread and a mandatory adjustment necessary to increase crop yield to feed an ever increasing and hungry world. How dare we object when by objecting we starve third world countries? Proof GMO's increase yield....good question....the duplicity is mind numbing. Who runs the world then? Why, those who oversee codex, a United Nations program. It goes beyond the super fiscal containment and control of natural remedies, vitamins, supplements which upset the homeopathic crowd, potentially causing them to become increasingly beholden to the Medical Industrial complex for treatment. It goes beyond forever changing the meaning of 'Organic' to include the GMO 'frankenfoods'....
It must be a bad day, I usually keep my rants short and sweet...sigh
I think it may be a bad day for a lot of us...
Heartening news from Nevada, but an increasing awareness that the tsunami is coming.. ;(
I am so proud of Nevada
Unfortunate as it is, you can feel the tsunami approach just as one senses the rain coming, the heaviness of the air alerts and envelopes you. I have noted that the inflation of food prices is helping our cause. The sleeping masses are audibly complaining at the grocery store and questioning the 4.5% they hear on the news. My last three shopping trips have included conversations to that end.
Good analogy
We don't have four more years . We need Ron Paul now !!! We need to evict Bush now !!!!