Ron Paul's Delegate Wars (III)

Ron Paul's Delegate Wars (III)

Are things about to get nasty? No: They already have.

by George Dance
(Libertarian)
Sunday, April 27, 2008

Perhaps this installment of "Delegate Wars" should be subtitled, "The Empire Strikes Back." The Paul campaign's delegate-capturing strategy has spawned the inevitable backlash. The Republican National Committee (RNC) and John McCain's campaign, which have effectively merged into one organization, have sent out the word that the RPR is to be stopped at all costs, and Party officials have been rallying to the cause.

At some county conventions, party officials have been bringing out their own troops by warning of takeovers and hijackings; at others, they have gone so far as ejecting Paul delegates (see the Texas report below).

At some district conventions, delegates have been told to sign pledges to vote for McCain, and Paul backers stripped of their credentials if they refused.

In some states, all mention of Dr. Paul and his candidacy has been purged from party websites.

In the most egregious example of all, the Republican leadership shut down the Nevada convention last night before it could elect any National Delegates, when it looked like Paul would win a majority.

What are they so afraid of?

For one thing, McCain's forces know that it is still possible for him to lose the nomination. As explained in Delegate Wars (II), not all of McCain's pledged delegates are bound (required by state party rules) to vote for him on the first ballot. Unbound delegates are free to vote for any other candidate; if enough do, McCain gets no majority and the race goes to a second ballot (for which he will have even less bound delegates). At which point, it becomes an open contest that anyone can win.

Which I think is why Romney and Huckabee, even though they have both endorsed McCain, have not released their delegates, and why I predict they will both be on the ballot. If McCain wins the first ballot, neither of them will have done him any harm. If he doesn't, though, either one suddenly has a chance at the nomination. On the other hand, if either one is eliminated, he can try to throw his votes to McCain to save him as the nominee (and give himself a leg up in the undeclared race to be McCain's running mate).

A convention full of unbound delegates supporting Ron Paul must give the RNC nightmares. Even worse would be what some radical Paul supporters are calling for, an open revolt of bound delegates. In the RNC world, conventions are a TV opportunity, free advertising for the party and its nominee; delegates no more than clapping, cheering, signwaving props. (Most definitely not "Ron Paul" signs, either.)

So the RNC/McCain camp battles to eliminate every vestige of dissent from the convention. Meanwhile, the Ron Paul campaign fights on to win largest possible share of delegates for its own good reasons (as Assistant Campaign Manager Debbie Hopper explains in an inspiring video, "We Only Have One Shot At This!").

Things are about to get nasty. No, that's not quite true: They already have.

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