Funds Embrace Dollar as Crisis Mutates Into Global Slump
I enjoy reading Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at the Telegraph. His entry today is interesting. He authored the story on Gold yesterday and I'm wondering what the economics pros on DP think of this one?
"Mounting fears of a full-fledged global recession have caused a profound shift in investor strategy over the last month, setting off a powerful dollar rebound and a flight to relative safety in US assets.
"What started as a US financial crisis is morphing into a global economic crisis. Investors now expect a downturn of such intensity that it will prevent inflation from taking hold," he said. Half the fund managers think the world will slide into recession over the next year, and a quarter suspect that it may already have begun.
A blizzard of dire data from Europe, Japan, Canada and Australasia has shattered assumptions that the world economy can decouple from the United States, and there is a growing suspicion central banks have been too slow to respond.
A net 18pc of investors now think inflation will fall over the next year, the most "deflationary" count since 2002. Bets that central banks would have to keep raising interest rates have been unwound almost overnight. Cuts are now expected. "Inflation is viewed as yesterday's story," said the report."
Continues at link:
Gold Story
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Gold and Silver...
have NEVER been worth nothing. Fiat currencies have, in many countries. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
Don't shot til you see the whites of their eyes.
Be slow to buy. There are many out there that bought on credit. Silver could go as low as $7.77 and Gold as low as $470. Have to be patient and of course not sell what you have already aquired. Trading now will make you a Traitor to the movement. This is a R3volution and our opposition is going to be playing hardball. They have a lot of tricks and illusions.
grant
We have to resist. And that means resist the temptation to buy.
There are many fools that borrow/borrowed money to buy gold and silver, or borrow/borrowed money to increase production at their businesses. These fools will most likely have to sell cheap to cover their ass. However those who aren't/weren't tempted to borrow money to invest will ride out the storm, I suspect it will be well after the first of the year before prices begin to rise. Only a fool would go out and and borrow money. We have to remember that the Fed has the military backing of the U.S. as it's watchdog to keep the dollar supported and central bankers around the world working with them. They will do everything to get our gold and property away from us. If you "need" something pay cash, if you have no cash trade services or barter goods.
The R3volution can win with brainpower, not bullets.
grant
If the funds are embracing
If the funds are embracing the dollar, I wonder what they are selling in order to buy those dollars? Are they selling other foreign currencies in order to buy dollars?
Gold?
Gold?
That's what I'm not sure
That's what I'm not sure about. Is Gold the cause or the effect?
If funds sell a lot of foreign currencies in order to free up capital to buy dollars, that would strengthen the dollar which would then (probably) cause Gold to drop.
I've read elsewhere that world central banks have been buying up dollars at at greatly increased rate over the past 4 weeks or so. Are those banks selling gold? Or are they selling other currencies in order to buy more dollars?
I'm not sure, but what they are selling in order to buy dollars is probably significant and can tell us a bit about the position gold/silver is in.
Hedge funds are definitely selling their gold positions
in nearly full panic mode and are obviously, based on the Merrill survey, loading up on the US$. That's OK. Their sorry black-box asses will soon be going away. The central banks are colluding to prop up the US$.
http://globaleconomicanal...
Well . . .
According to the government, inflation was still accelerating in July. The annualized rate, not using the government's massaged numbers, looks like it is now well over 10%. No signs of slowing down. And everything the government does - bailouts, stimulus checks, borrowing to make payroll, pissing off the foreign holders of US treasuries - is inflationary.
Milton Friedman established experimentally that general price increases follow the expansion of the money supply in 18 - 24 months. So we are now experiencing symptoms of Fed activity over a year ago. And inflationary activity by the Fed and the government in the last year have yet to be felt in price increases. So there would seem to be at least another yeat of price increases in the pipe already.
Soon there will be another stimulus program that creates money while bypasing the traditional Fed credit source. And there will be more bank closures - involving handouts to depositors, bank bailouts - involving pouring new cash into bank reserves, and big corporate bailouts - involving new cash handouts to shareholders etc.
The only way I see deflation is if everyone stops borrowing money, pays back outstanding loans, and the government doesn't create new money for stimuls plans and to make its ever-expansing payroll. None of those things are happening yet and I don't think they will.
I like reading Ambrose Evans-Pritchard too
Today's article is basically the author's gleaning of information from Merrill's latest survey of fund managers. My assumption with respect to fund managers is that they are not much different than any other profession or occupation in that there is a small percentage (perhaps 10%) that are pretty damn good, a small percentage (perhaps 10%) that are borderline incompetent, and the rest (about 80%) that just follow the herd and never really question where their instructions come from. So when I see that the Merrill survey shows that fund managers, in general, are loading up on the US$, I'm not surprised. Personally, I'd rather know what the good ones are doing, and to find out I go online and look for what they might be blogging in their own words.
After reading both of the author's linked articles, I would say that he laid out a sound rationale for being long gold and short any western fiat currency in yesterday's article, and in today's article he is merely reporting how the body of large fund managers (sheep) are looking out for their clients' wealth...which should be more than a bit frightening to anyone relying on fund managers to protect their wealth.
thank you gil..
thank you gil..
I was hoping for more discussion here
but instead we were greeted by NeoConned trying to herd us into the fenced off "free speech zone" and then crazy jeff goes off on you twice. I tried to goad NeoConned into at least posting an opinion, but he bailed. And I was trying to be respectful by not responding to crazy jeff because at least he posted something, and then he goes and starts that "gold is fiat money too" bullshit thread. Some days it's just tough to be here.
It was a suggestion Gil. I
It was a suggestion Gil. I asked that ppl please refrain from regurgitating a newsletter because that seems to be ALL that some know how to do.
Sorry if it came off as rude but for the last few months there have been some ppl on this forum that have really started to get on my nerves and it shows i guess.
I am not educated enough in the markets/economics to really put forth a well reasoned position on the matter, hence the reason I've not given an opinion. I'm just sick and tired of the same small handful of people going ballistic on others that have an opinion that is counter to what some other person (like jim sinclaire for example) might have to say.
It's pretty obvious when the trolls come on board and instigate but I don't feel that Jeff/Jzneff is a troll. When he is bashed and treated in such an ill manner it really annoys me because I'm actually pro-counter opinions. It helps us to learn and gives us the opportunity to have more well rounded opinions.
When I see the same pattern of quoting Sinclaire, telling someone they don't understand anything or that they are stupid/unintelligent/etc because they have a different opinion is childish and drives away people who honestly hope to learn.
My hope with my initial posting to this thread was to increase the level of discourse here but it seems that didn't work. I'm unsure if it's due to a lack of desire or ability on some people's parts to accept counter opinions and reply back in a mature fashion or what.
I know that I have been guilty of the same exact thing in the past but I've learned that just isn't very helpful to our movement. Sometimes you have to admit that you are wrong or you just don't know wtf you are talking about and then close your word hole and listen. Ok, i've said my peace. I await your harsh rebuke.
I guess my rebuke shall not
I guess my rebuke shall not be as forthcoming as i'd initially anticipated.
lol...... ok neoconned....
lol...... ok neoconned.... since you can't understand Sinclaire let me see if I can explain it.. if slowing business activity is a precurser to DEFLATION, then why is Zimbabwe experiencing HYPER INFLATION! with slowing economies the central banks lower interest rates to stimulate economic activity! it is INFLATIONARY! AGAIN WHAT HAS RON PAUL recently told us! we are seeing stagflation that will lead to an INFATIONARY DEPRESSION! as the economy slows, the government has less tax revenue, jobless clims go up the governments costs go up, so what do they do to pay the bills... they print money! the account defeceit goes up the government competes with private business for money to pay interest on its debt. thus slowing business activity even more and just to get on your nerves.. here is Jim Sinclaire.. oops also some here on the daily paul are saying the fed would raise rates.. now look what was said in this article.. now they are talking about cutting rates.. and INFLATION IS ALREADY RAGING!
Jim's Formula sept 2006
First interest rates rise affecting the drivers of the US economy, housing, but before that auto production goes from bull to a bear markets.
This impacts many other industries and the jobs report. An economy is either rising at a rising rate or business activity is falling at an increasing rate. That is economic law 101. There is no such thing in any market as a Plateau of Prosperity or Cinderella - Goldilocks situations.
We have witnessed the Dow rise on economic news indicating deceleration of activity. This continues until major corporations announced poor earnings, making the Dow fall faster than it rose, moving it deeply into the red.
The formula economically is inherent in #2 which is lower economic activity equals lower profits.
Lower profits leads to lower Federal Tax revenues.
Lower Federal tax revenues in the face of increased Federal spending causes geometric, not arithmetic, rises in the US Federal Budget deficit. This is also true for cities & States as it is for the Federal government.
The increased US Federal Budget deficit in the face of a US Trade Deficit increases the US Current Account Deficit.
The US Current Account Balance is the speedometer of the money exiting the US into world markets (deficit).
It is this deficit that must be met by incoming investment in the US in any form. It could be anything from businesses, equities to Treasury instruments. We are already seeing a fall off in the situation of developing nations carrying the spending habits of industrial nations; a contradiction in terms.
If the investment by non US entities fails to meet the exiting dollars by all means, then the US must turn within to finance the shortfall.
Assuming the US turns inside to finance all maturities, interest rates will rise with the long term rates moving fastest regardless of prevailing business conditions.
This will further contract business activity and start a downward spiral of unparalleled dimension because the size of US debt already issued is of unparalleled dimension.
Therefore as you get to #12 you are automatically right back at #1. This is an economic downward spiral.
I heard all this "slow business" as negative to gold talk in the 70s. It was totally wrong then. It will be exactly the same now.
this is what i mean
"lol...... ok neoconned.... since you can't understand Sinclaire let me see if I can explain it......."
This is exactly what I'm talking about. I'm fully capable of understanding Mr.Sinclaire's musings. Your condescending tone is what gets on my nerves Sierra. I get that you think Sinclaire has the inside scoop on what's going on. I've never said that I agree or disagree with the guy. I just don't like how you choose to share HIS information with the rest of US on the board.
We are all grown ups here and none of us like being talked down to. Treat others with respect man. Jeff has a different opinion than you do on some things. He's not here baiting people into inane arguments that go in circles as the trolls do. He's actually pretty knowledgeable and I truly do enjoy the discourse with him, even if I might not agree.
SIERRAHPBT: Here's your prediction from a month ago
SIERRAHPBT: Here's your prediction from a month ago:
http://www.dailypaul.com/...
" Back to gold for the moment – we are now moving into the time frame on a seasonal basis in which gold tends to bottom out before moving higher into the end of the year. I suspect that today’s bear raid is going to be the last hurrah for the perma shorts in gold. We have support coming in at $940 in the August contract followed by $935. Below that is $920 - $915. Resistance is $955". SIERRAHPBT - WRONG!
On June 2nd, 2008 SIERRAHPBT says:
http://www.dailypaul.com/...
"At a minimum, the dollar will lose another 40 to 50 percent of its value".
SIERRAHPBT- WRONG!
Now you defend the Euro over the Dollar.SIERRAHPBT- WRONG!
LETS NOT FORGET YOUR BET THAT SILVER WILL BE ABOVE $20 BEFORE YEARS END! SIERRAHPBT- ??????
Now you expect us to believe you were watching the metals markets in your early teens, so you are an expert? Enough already dude, you know nothing. Stick with the housing business, that should be a winner for you too.
and please......no jim
and please......no jim sinclaire ventriloquist dummy regurgitation copy/paste. If you disagree with the articles author, lay out why you do.
SIERRAHPBT: "The Broken Record Parrot".
SIERRAHPBT: "The Broken Record Parrot"
SIERRAHPBT P-l-e-a-s-e spare us your achieve collection of Jim Sinclaire, Ted Butler and all your other newsletter subscriptions. Regurgitating a 2006 Sinclaire archive is irrelevant as best. As well, you already told us you are 43 y/o; how old were you when you were watching the 70's gold market anyway, 14? P-l-e-a-s-e stop insulting everyone's intelligence here.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has you pegged perfectly:
Gold bugs must start questioning their deepest assumptions. Have they bought too deeply into the "dollar-collapse/M3 monetary bubble" tale, ignoring all the other moving parts in the complex global system?"
SIERRAHPBT it is the Euro that is most at risk for a collapse. The dollar may follow, but not yet. As Evans-Prichards points out:
"The slow-burn damage of the over-valued euro is becoming apparent in every corner of the eurozone. The ECB misjudged the severity of the downturn, as executive board member Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi admitted today in the Italian press. By raising interest rates into the teeth of the storm last month, Frankfurt has made it that much more likely that parts of Europe's credit system will seize up as defaults snowball next year".
I challenged you to disprove this several times last week. The fact is you can't, so you resort to reposting the same old dribble over and over like and broken recored. Try some critical thinking taking into consideration all the other moving pars of the global economy without parroting someone else's opinion. You may surprise yourself and you will certainly have more credibility than expecting us to believe you were following the metals markets in your teens.
jeff I honestly don't care
jeff I honestly don't care what happens to the euro... when all currencies are not trusted by the people where do they turn.. you miss the whole point. cash is trash.. wether its the dollar or the euro.. as the euro goes down the dollar will to its called competive devaluations.. this will occur because in order to have a new world order they must have a one world order money! at some point all currencies will go broke.. at that point with inflation raging because the other countries are devaluing there currencies when do you think people will turn to the metals.. lol you made fun of me because I went to one of the largest coin shows in denver here and I said there was not 1 peice of junk silver.. you don't even know the difference between bullion and collector coins when it comes to metals.. second i talked tothe gentleman who owns the coind store where I bought from him 7 years ago.. he called up wanting to know if I wanted to sell. he has people wanting silver and can't get it! the offer was for over 20.00 an ounce.. way over what is quoted on the spot price.. laugh all you want jeffry try to put words in my mouth... do what you want.. but I know where this thing is going.. by the way the article you refere to above?? what did he say was going to be the results for the precious metals as europes credit systems freeze up?? also why would the idiots raise rates?
and you think bernanke is going to raise rates lol....
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
jeffry,,,, here shortly when
jeffry,,,, here shortly when things turn around and they will I hope you still have guts to come back on this site.. if you think gold or silver are going to stay down then 2 of your 3 braincells are not working!
as for the part up there about technical lines where gold was showing support at 930 or whatever.. that isn't me dude.. i'm not that technical/.. so now lets see about what happens to rates how much would you like to bet they won't go up? bernanke will not raise rates.
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
still here
SIERRAHPBT.
Still here. I never said to count out gold or silver. I simply pointed out they are only worth what someone is willing to pay for them and that your timing on oil, the dollar, silver, and gold was way off. Long term, gold and silver will beat the dollar, no question. My problem with your advise was that you were advising people to buy near the high instead of waiting for the inevitable correction we are now experiencing. IMHO, silver is looking like it may be close to a bottom and a good buy again. Not that I but into Ted Butler's nonsense, but inflation adjusted, under $10 silver at today's market prices is probably a good bet. Had you not swallowed the silver lure, you could have sold out half your position near the high and be doubling down now. But then again I have have 2 brain cells, so what do I know.
Thank you Jeff. Nice to see
Thank you Jeff. Nice to see someone that isn't just regurgitating a newsletter they read.
Will you be weighing in with an opinion?
Or are you happy just trying to control the direction of the discussion?
I thought Susan posted this thread,
so why are you making the rules? I will give you credit for saying the magiic word "please". I'll read it and comment in my own words.