SILVER SHORTAGE? You got to be kidding me OR ELSE THERE IS NO HOPE

Razorwind Studios is an official endorser of Ron Paul, and we will live free or die! 14th alternate to MN state!
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Just got an email today that they shipped my order of 100 x 1oz bars. I ordered last sunday.

Whether or not there is a shortage of silver is a guessing game. One way that there could be a shortage would be if mining companies haven't been honest with their reporting of production. One way of doing so is to claim silver findings as actual silver production. Many times companies do exploration and sell prospective silver deposits to banks as a way to raise cash without actually producing the metal. Hard to say???
One thing for sure is that we know that there is no shortage of copper, which is what a current $1 dollar coin is minted with. With anual copper mining at around 6,800.000 tons a year there is plenty of room to mint copper dollars, and with annual silver production claimed to be at around 9000 tons a year makes for a ratio of close to 700 ounces of copper produce to each ounce of silver.
With less demand for copper from new home construction and wireless phone system ect... Copper may be the new standard for government coins. 700 coppers to a silver and 70 silvers to a gold.
Coins by the way do not have to be borrowed by the government for the issuing of FRNs.
FRNs on the other hand we know there is no shortage of paper or ink, but should one occur there are recycling methods which could easily change a $1 dollar bill into a $100 or $1000 dollar bill, seen it happen in Brazil.
Now as for electric currency there is no limit to how many zero's are possilble to add.
grant

Just go to your local bullion dealer and ask him to sell you 1000 or even 100 ounces of silver sometime. Many dealers are taking orders and filling them later. Examples are: http:\\www.kitco.com where their website has now posted large RED letters stating delays. Our local dealer cannot keep bulk bullion in stock at all these days. Amark has an 8 week turnaround I am told. A VERY LARGE dealer in California has a 12 week delay for shipping.

Call your local coin dealer or visit and try to buy a Silver Eagle. Hope you try it and report back to us!!! Try to buy a Gold Eagle lately?

Not necessarily, silver can also be based on projected production. For example a mining company discovers a deposit of silver and estimates the load, but doesn't necessarily extract the product. They can use this to sell on the market.
grant

Silver was a loser from 1989 to 2003 - does anyone have charts longer then 20 years? Silver has only gained (from 1989 value) since 2003, why is this? I was under the impression that monetary metals hold there value, but this chart shows otherwise, except since from 2003 forward, can someone please explain this to me?? Did the price just finally catch up in 2003?? I have recently started buying silver and am looking for answers.
http://www.maoxian.com/im...

(I did post this on another topic but didn't really receive much input so I figured I would try here.

BUT there is no shortage! that just makes me laugh!

http://stevequayle.com/Ne...

now the panic buying is starting. and this "panic"buying is only by a small fraction of a percent of the US population does that tell you how small the supply is!.. so where is the price going!
WAKE UP FOLKS!

as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD

The new silver - made with paper
By The Mogambo Guru

Things are so weird lately that I nervously put a new layer of aluminum foil on the ceiling and walls of the Fabulous Mogambo Bunker (FMB) in another pathetic attempt to keep what I assume are Government Stupid Rays (GSR) from being beamed into my brain, too, as things are getting Really, Really Weird (RRW) out there.

The weirdest thing of the whole week was that gold and silver suddenly collapsed in price when they should have been zooming to the freaking moon in response to the inflationary and deflationary horrors that are appearing everywhere. And you

should have seen the gold lease rates jerking around on Monday! Weird!

Many other people are likewise perplexed at this bizarre event, so it ISN'T just a change for me, given that many people have noticed that there is almost no silver for sale, and there are plenty of people who want to buy some, and when they do find some for sale, they find that the asking price is way, way, WAY above the spot price of silver! So that's something else weird!

So perhaps it is not just coincidental that Chris Powell of GATA.org posted the headline "US Mint Suspends Gold Coin Sales", by which he means the news that "The US Mint has suspended sales of American Eagle gold coins."

Mr Powell figures that "the suspension is overwhelming evidence that the futures contract price of gold on the commodities exchanges is substantially below the physical market price and that, indeed, the commodities exchanges are being used as GATA long has maintained - as part of a massive scheme of manipulation of the precious metals, currency, and bond markets," which is not really all that much news, as the International Monetary Fund, Bank for International Settlements, US Treasury, European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve officials have all long ago acknowledged that they do, and will do, these kinds of things any time they want.

The result is that "the Western central banks, desperate to prop up a corrupt and tottering financial system, have put gold so much on sale that even the US Mint can't find any now", as nobody is stupid enough to sell their gold, or silver, at these low prices! Wow!

But the question on my trembling lips remains, "Regardless of why silver went down by so much so fast, why did it go down at all?"

Jason Hommel of silverstockreport.com explains, "Many people agree there is a shortage of retail investor silver, but they get confused by the lower price. They think a lower price means more silver must have come into the market."

I naturally leap to my feet and exclaim, "Well, if one looks at the classical supply/demand dynamic, where the supply curve meeting the demand curve determines the price, then, yes; silver supply MUST have come onto the market to swamp demand, making the price go down! That's the way things work! Everybody knows that! Do I look like I am stupid or something? Is that what you are saying? You're saying I'm stupid, like I don't understand supply and demand or something? Is that what you are saying, punk?"

Well, I could see Mr Hommel struggling to contain himself, as bitter experience has shown that everyone is always happy to tell me that, yes, I look stupid, and not only that, but I sound stupid, I act stupid, I am stupid, and I smell funny, which must be the fabled "smell of stupid", which must be (also learned by bitter experience) also something of a babe-repellent, looking back on it all after all these years.

Instead, perhaps taking pity on me and my many, many personal problems in the areas of looking, sounding, being, acting and smelling, he says through gritted teeth, "That is not how our markets work."

Of course, I figure that he is arguing with me! Happily argumentative, I retort, "Wrong-o! That's how ALL markets work; price equilibrates demand and supply so that they equal each other!"

I was feeling pretty smug about this time, because if there is one thing I know for sure, it is that the prices going up and down make demand equal supply. So, thinking that I had finally, at last, bested Mr Hommel in an argument, I sat down with a cruel, sadistic grin on my face, crossed my arms in self-satisfaction, and thought, "Touche!"

My comeuppance was, as usual, not long in coming, and almost instantly I see where he had cleverly maneuvered me into revealing that everybody is right; I really AM stupid! He wasn't taking about silver bullion at all! He was talking about paper promises to deliver silver!

With my face burning in embarrassment at how easily I was duped, I could feel Mr Hommel's eyes burning into me as he said, "Our markets are affected by paper silver futures contracts, and very few people ever attempt to take delivery of that silver; they buy it on leverage, for the investment returns, not for real silver. So, some people can sell 'silver promises' to excess, and never deliver, and if they sell more 'paper silver' than exists, that can manipulate the price."

This is entirely congruent with SeekingAlpha.com blaring the headline "The Disconnect Between Supply and Demand in Gold & Silver Markets". They explain that "western markets are, with the exception of some fabrication and industrial demand, almost 90% paper based", which is making it very easy for the world's bullion banks to affect the price of silver by "managing deliveries of physical gold and silver to artificially reduce the quantities delivered", which they do by restricting credit to buy gold.

Then, out of nowhere, in one of those flashes that sometimes determines the course of history, I instantly decide that Mr Hommel, explaining the business plan of "sell 'silver promises' to excess, and never deliver", was too good a deal to pass up! I immediately went into the silver business!

Within a matter of mere seconds, with a fanfare of trumpets I proudly introduced the new Mogambo Silver Service (MSS) - a trusted, old-line firm, founded by God-fearing Pilgrims when they stepped off the Mayflower onto Plymouth Rock and said, "This looks like a good rock to step on to get off of this damned boat!"

So, from now on, if you ever want to buy some silver, MSS will sell it to you at the lowest price possible; the spot price! All you have to do is just send the money to me, in cash, in a plain brown envelope addressed to "Occupant", and I will gladly send you a piece of paper that says I sold you some silver.

And this is real paper silver, too, made with real paper! With a stamp and everything, but without any fingerprints or DNA anywhere on the paper, the envelope or the stamp, so don't bother looking, as I am waaaAAAAaaay ahead of you and your ill-tempered prosecuting attorneys!

And the ugly lesson is; you thought that the fraud of naked short selling was only for stocks? Hahaha! Wrong! It's every-freaking-where! Hahaha!

And when you have that kind of pandemic, systemic corruption, created by greedy people exploiting inattentive regulators and complicit government, and financed by the damnable Federal Reserve creating all the money and credit to pay for it all, then you are 100% right to be buying silver and gold to protect yourself against the inflation in prices and economic calamity that are sure to follow.

Your only mistake was to not take delivery of the actual silver, but instead taking a flimsy piece of paper.

And even if the "paper promise" to deliver silver is not from Mogambo Silver Service (MSS), then it is almost certainly something of equal value when one considers that more silver has been "sold" in paper promises than the amount of silver that actually exists in the world! Hahahaha!

Richard Daughty is general partner and COO for Smith Consultant Group, serving the financial and medical communities, and the editor of The Mogambo Guru economic newsletter - an avocational exercise to heap disrespect on those who desperately deserve it.

(Republished with permission from The Daily Reckoning

as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD

Step One: Fake a physical shortage
Step Two: Call in metals (due to "shortage")
Step Three: Profit

I think what we're seeing is an immediate precursor to a confiscation.

Disclaimer: I am not an expert in metals, history or economics. I therefore serve this up with a nice, tasty grain of salt, with recognition that you silver and gold bugs have likely already thought of this, and I'm just slow on the uptake.

That being said...consider:

A physical silver shortage, not a true physical shortage on the planet, but, a manipulated buy-and-hold by powers that be in order to create the illusion of a physical shortage; combined with prices falsely manipulated to remain (and fall) low (and lower), in order to give an impression that silver just really isn't all that valuable

Resulting in:

(a) people selling off the silver they've so far collected in an effort to cut their losses before the price of silver (and therefore their investment) goes down any further, thus releasing physical silver back into the market to be bought back up and held by PTB to further the illusion of scarcity - see above;

and/or

(b) the few people who see the current low price for the bargain that it is, snap up as much of it as they can

Suddenly, a silver and/or gold call-in is made, a la gold in 1933 and silver in 1934. Why for the metals call-in? Why, there's a "shortage" of the physical stuff, Citizen. You're a patriotic American, so turn in your metals to help your country. Or else. All your metals are belong to us. And belong to us means, them that don't turn in the metals will receive visits from agents who will be happy to help you find your metals to turn in.

"Step Three: Profit" -- your metals go to pay off our dear friends and neighbors like China, etc., so they'll still play nice with us. See? No new taxes! We just take what we need or want by decree, and do with it as we please.

According to Ron Paul, the power to confiscate gold is still on the books as the law of the land. We know that with the flick of a pen, silver can and likely will be thrown in with that order (if it's not already on the books). And just because Roosevelt limited the confiscations to non-collectibles does not mean that the same limitations would necessarily apply in a new nationwide theft of the people's metals.

Historically, governments have banned the ownership of gold when their citizens lose confidence in government issued paper money (reference). I suspect our (individual people's) wealth is about to go to pay off legal and not-quite-so-legal agreements those in our government have made with others around the world.

Will we get something in return for our metals? I suspect it will be either the Amero (ha ha) or simply nothing (value: same as Amero).

I think the physical silver shortage may be very real, but NOT because there's a very real physical shortage of silver.

(Did I just spend this whole comment stating the obvious? If so, I apologize.)

Yes there are many shortages that are starting simply from people buying not only at the tops, but on the bottoms too. Here are the statistics of the United States...

U.S. annual gross domestic product is about $15 trillion
U.S. money supply is also about $15 trillion
Current proposed U.S. federal budget is $3 trillion
U.S. government's maximum legal debt is $9 trillion
U.S. mutual fund companies manage about $12 trillion
World's GDPs for all nations is approximately $50 trillion
Unfunded Social Security and Medicare benefits $50 trillion to $65 trillion
Total value of the world's real estate is estimated at about $75 trillion
Total value of world's stock and bond markets is more than $100 trillion
BIS valuation of world's derivatives back in 2002 was about $100 trillion
BIS 2007 valuation of the world's derivatives is now a whopping $516 trillion
Moreover, the folks at BIS say their estimate of $516 trillion only includes "transactions in which a major private dealer (bank) is involved on at least one side of the transaction," but doesn't include private deals between two "non-reporting entities." They did, however, add that their reporting central banks estimate that the coverage of the survey is around 95% on average.

Now the biggest bubble in the world is the US Dollar. So knowing that where is money going to flow. Something you can't cheat. The marketplace is starting to understand this, and just like any person with money the are protecting themselves. Your greed silver longs is pure ignorance, and you should be talking about greedy politicians that have created this. Also factor in manipulation if you can handle it. Silver and Gold have been long ignored and the supply has not expanded as a result from 1930 levels. What is your other choice if not gold or silver?

First, think about this, like gold, silver, while they can be consumed throughout the economy in various forms, the truth of the matter is that both are considered recoverable resources. The massive amount of silver, for instance, is still in coin form, much of which is in private ownership. However, concerning the supposed shortage think about this, back in March of this year the Silver Wheaton Mines reported that their present reserves had increased in one year by 239% to 346.4 Million ounces, then they inferred that these resource increased another 48% making their total known reserves around 416.9 Million ounces.

Pan Silver Mine announced earlier this year that their known reserves were 227.8 million ounces. I could go on an on about the massive amount of silver reserves around the world, even gold known and probable reserves are very high

Now folks, this is just a couple of mines, there are indications that the known reserves from known sources are astronomical. Also, it is important to understand, particularly when referring to gold in our Treasury Reserves, that those ounces are valued under U.S. Code Title 31-5116 and 5117 (statutory rates) as $42.2222 per Fine Troy Ounce of Gold Bullion and at $1.292929292 per Fine Troy Ounce of Silver Bullion.

It is also important to know that at times there is a lot of short covering, particularly f there is a tremendous amount of “leased” silver in the pipeline and the “lessors” are not prepared to take delivery, so in such cases you will see what looks like “shortages” and silver prices should therefore, begin a rapid rise in prices due to the perceived “shortgage”, but that is not happening, if such a “shortgage” was real, then silver would not be trading around $13.00 per ounce, but more like $25 to $50 per ounce. It is always important to interpret such things correctly, particularly if you are trading in silver. Rumor-mongering about either present or future silver shortages are usually the prime “mover’ in such markets, but rarely do such rumors pan out, especially due to the fact that actual known and probable reserves are so high.

So, keep this all in mind when you hear about “shortages” and remember there are a tremedous number of "Texas Hedges" going on in all markets today, but such hedges rarely diminsh risks they only increase them.

Silver has Run Out, Now!
(Just try to find some!)
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, August 20th, 2008
For a long time, people have been asking me, "When will silver run out?". They know that the world uses up more silver each year (about 850 million ounces) than the world mines (about 600 million ounces), and that existing demand can only be met by selling existing inventory (such as recycling 200 million ounces, or goverments selling 50 million ounces), so it's a natural question to ask. The question is not implying that mankind will be unable to mine any more. Rumor is that there remains at least about 14-16 years of silver in the ground at "current" prices; while at much higher prices, silver mining becomes more economic, and more deposits can be added to that "in ground" reserve number.

So, the question is really just asking, "When will we run out of "excess" above ground silver that can meet the supply/demand gap, so that the price will begin to really take off upwards?" Clearly, the world has silver in supplies above ground, and such silver supplies are dwindling in order to meet the supply/demand gap. About two years ago, the world started adding to above ground silver supplies as silver investors started buying, (and the silver surveys label investor buying as a "surplus". However, silver recycling was still greater than new stockpiling, which continued to deplete overall silver supplies.

Such a question as "When will silver run out?" cannot really be answered in advance, since nobody really knows how much silver there is, and who owns it, and at what price they are willing to sell it. Again, that brings us back to the nature of silver; it's inherantly private wealth, held anonymously. Estimates on "above ground" silver, in refined, deliverable form have ranged from 300 million ounces to 1 billion ounces, to about a high of 4 billion ounces if you include jewelry and flatware, up to 20 billion ounces if you include all forms of silver that have not ended up in landfills, out of the total of 43 billion ounces of silver estimated to have been mined in all of human history. Furthermore, nobody is arguing that the last bit of silver that exists needs to be consumed before the price rises substantially. The question is really about when will all the unwanted silver, in so-called "weak" hands of holders who don't really want it, be sold, to allow the price to rise to meet the majority of the expectations of the remaining wise investors who have planned in advance to actually store up some of the rare stuff.

But finally, I think the answer has arrived. The answer is "NOW!" Silver has run out, now! Or, in other words, most of the cheap silver has run out.

There are two excellent articles on the shortage of Silver that I'd like to bring to your attention if you have not already seen them:

This one is by "seekingalpha", and is very excellent, and very comprehensive.

The Disconnect Between Supply and Demand in Gold & Silver Markets
(August 18th)
http://seekingalpha.com/a...

The article goes over how the silver shortage is also affecting India.
He also covers the paper silver fraud that is commonplace and "standard business practice" in Wall Street brokerage houses.

This next article is short and powerful, and written by a coin dealer:

The Disconnect Between The Physical Gold and 'Paper Contract' Markets
(August 19th)
http://www.numismaster.co...

What's amazing is that last year, net physical silver investment demand was estimated to be about 30-60 million ounces, or about $1 billion worth.

Today, with 90% of the people in the U.S. being concerned about inflation, and a growing awareness of the danger of banks going bankrupt, there ought to be about 90% of the $14,000 billion of money in the banks that should be seeking to buy either some silver, or gold.

So, where do you think silver prices are headed? How can most of $14,000 billion enter a market of $1 billion that is already suffering a shortage, and prices not go up, a lot?

And oh yes, what about that current low price?

There's a short story that goes something like this. A lady wants to buy sausage. There are two butcher shops next to each other, one advertises $1.99/lb., the other advertises $2.99/lb. She goes to the $1.99/lb. shop first. But there's no sausage, they are out. So, she goes across the street, and sees sausage for $2.99/lb., and promptely complains about the price. "Why don't you sell it for $1.99/lb like the other guy?" Butcher answers, "Lady, when I'm out, mine is $1.99/lb, too!"

Price means nothing if you can't get the product. Many people are still sending money to dealers who will take your money, but have no silver, and no idea when they can get it.

Be very, very careful about ordering silver right now. Demand to know exactly when they can deliver. If they can't guarantee delivery within a week or your full money back, then consider that they probably don't have it!

Here's what I suggest. FIND YOUR LOCAL COIN SHOP and go there, in person. Or visit the dealers who are recommended at:
www.find-your-local-coin-...

In fact, now might be a good time to meet up other Silver Stock Report readers.

I suggest that everyone visit their favorite local coin shop on September 1, at 1PM. That's a Monday.

Sincerely,

Jason Hommel
www.find-your-local-coin-...
www.silverstockreport.com
www.miningpedia.com
www.bibleprophesy.org

as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD

I couldn't tell you if it will be inflation or deflation or a bit of both-I think it's up to the powers that be since they manipulate the heck out of everything including precious metals. All that glitters will always be desired for many reasons from practical to psychological. I think I'll keep what I have shortage or no, manipulated or not.

I hear a few years back you could buy a house if you had a few tulip bulbs. Does that mean that a few tulip bulbs were truely equal in value to a house? Or could it be that there was a temporary psychological disconnect to real value? First we've had a mania in Stocks, followed by a mania in real estate. Why so hard to think that a mania in commodities might not follow? All these bubbles, or manias, have been driven by infaltion, and they all have had the SAME basic ideals held by its participants. "It can only go up". We heard it in the stock bubble. We heard it in the Real Estate bubble. Now we're hearing it in the Commodity Bubble.

In each bubble there have been good solid reasons why the bubble could not deflate. And these reasons have held true through each bubble, until suddenly the bubble began to deflate DESPITE the good solid reasons that STILL existed...

Think quality rather than quantity.

The point of backing currency with gold and silver is to prevent the government from being able to inflate or deflate its value.

Shortages aside, the quantity of money is completely meaningless, so long as it stays relatively stable.
Read that last sentence again, because it is not common knowledge.

The entire world economy could be based on silver (or gold, or anything else) if there were only 10oz of the stuff in existence. The only difference that it would make would be the price (in silver) that goods and services command.

All that silver does in a silver-backed economy is give a reference by which everything else is valued. The idea that the quantity of something has any impact on its value as a medium of exchange is the flaw in logic that leads helicopter Ben to create more dollars because there aren't 'enough' of them.

Let's consider a hypothetical economy that runs on a silver standard. This economy has an aggregate silver content of 10.0000oz.
Now, suppose you are a participant in this economy holding silver.
You hold 0.001oz of silver. This means that you alone hold one ten-thousandth of the economy's value (IE, you are very wealthy).

The major consequence of such a small supply of money would be increased currency volatility. In this fictional economy, adding an additional 10oz of silver would be disastrous because prices would double.

So what if a cheeseburger costs you 0.00000000001oz of silver? Who cares? The guy on the other side of the transaction doesn't care about the quantity of the silver he receives. He only cares about what fraction of the national wealth it represents.

As economic activity widens, prices will fall unless more silver is discovered and put into circulation (deflation). If silver is being coined faster than the economy expands, prices will rise (inflation).

It doesn't matter if there is 1oz, or 1,000,000oz in the entire Earth! All that matters is that the supply doesn't vary arbitrarily. Quantity will effect value and therefore price. But that is all. It won't change the suitability of silver as a monetary unit.

Silver has been a good choice for use as money because there is such a quantity of it that the monetary unit under a silver standard is a size that is comfortable for human-sized actors to use day-to-day.
It is durable.
It is divisible.
It is homogeneous.

Silver is as close as we have come to "ideal money".

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