the basics of the economic movements now, and the likelihood of hyperinflation. I appreciate the posts about bartering, and preparation. Now I am going to ask my question again, in case I wasn't clear before.
What are we as an awakened community going to do when that time comes? Are there plans being made now for mutual support, or is it going to be every man, woman, and child for themselves?
What is the point in only helping my own family survive? We'll all eventually die alone.
The Retrocon
Hope for America, Ron Paul for President in 2008!
We obviously have had plenty of posts on what to get to prepare, and to learn on that. We probably could use more information on bartering, and the mechanics on that. We have the website for listings for liberty lover's businesses, http://freemarketforliber...
and New Freelander's forum The Rendezvous for meeting others locally. http://newfreelanders.big...
If we could get some more people to join these, it would step up this mutual support, and if someone with good computer networking skills could get the word out, we may get something going here. It will be sad to see the sheeple having such a rough time, but alas, there will always be people who won't help themselves, just wait for the government to help them. But, I think this may be our opportunity, if we ourselves are truly prepared, and as a group, like republicae said in one of his posts, that we, the remnant will be able to pick up the pieces and be the force to restore our republic.
Basically it would mean that as soon as someone handed you a paycheck (likely every day rather than once every two weeks) -- you would immediately rush to cash it at a local bank or grocery or other place (finding a place to cash a check in itself may be a problem -- you may have to go to your employer's bank to cash it -- or possibly get 80 cents on a dollar by cashing it in a back alley).
Once you had the cash -- you would try to spend it as soon as possible and change it into some type of hard asset. Food is the obvious thing -- but, beyond your own family's need for food, you don't want to have too much on hand (unless it is canned, it molds and goes bad you know) -- so instead you buy whatever you can later used to barter with other people.
Physical "hard asset" goods tend not to go bad like fresh food -- so whether you buy a case of soap, or shampoo or a carton of razor blades, etc. well, you take whatever you can get in your area (concentrating on things you know everyone wants).
And virtually everyone becomes somewhat of a "flea market" person then, with black-market or gray-market barter becoming a commonplace way of trading for goods and/or services. If you can pay a plumber with 5 bottles of shampoo to fix your toilet, then he doesn't have to go through the above scenario of check-cashing-to-hard-asset-conversion. (As a consequence, tradespeople needing to travel for work and others who providing "services" and deal with a variety of clients often end up becoming half-serviceman/half-peddler and master barterers, as no one want to hold cash.)
Basically depending on how fast it is being hyper-inflated -- money becomes a virtual "hot potato" that you don't want to hold onto for any longer than you have to. And the idea of "saving" money becomes a matter of laughter -- so "banks" such as they are become pointless except as a place to cash checks -- if you HAVE to maintain an account, you keep a minimal balance (which is likely to increase frequently, limited only by regulations), and instead you count that money as "lost" or the "cost of cashing checks" (much like we see ATM fees today as a "cost of convenience" -- it being cheaper to pay the darned $1.50 than the cost of gas to drive to the bank & back).
Among other things, you could certainly say goodbye to such obtuse business concepts as "Just-In-Time" inventory models -- people will laugh remembering "inventory turns" as being a business goal -- instead, massive inventory levels rule the day, indeed businessmen will seek to convert customers "pumpkin-like" currency payments into hard-asset inventory ASAP (either raw materials or finished goods, since labor costs just go up over time).
Additionally, everyone will try to delay paying for things as much as possible -- since paying a bill (for example a utility or tax bill) even a week or a month late would cut it's cost down significantly -- whereas hopefully your wages would have gone up (again, hopefully significantly).
If that sounds insane, well basically it IS insane. Life becomes like a perverse version of childhood games (remember "musical chairs"? or the aforementioned "hot potato"? Such things become daily life, which seems like someone puts it alternately on "fast forward" and/or on "pause"; and long-term planning goes out the window. Possession becomes MORE than 9/10's of the law, it becomes all that really matters. Friends, family and "who you know" along with DIY skills become the rule of the day. Barter-bribery and finding ways around everything "official" -- which means delays -- become important skills... think Radar O'Reilly in M.A.S.H. probably the most important person in the whole unit because of his barter & exchange connections and skills.)
Just go digging around on the internets... you'll find stories from people who have lived through the recent hyperinflation horrors of Argentina and other countries... it's a real eye opener!
to consider leaving, if possible. Whether you do or not, see to your supplies of basic food items; those that do not require refrigeration. Grains, beans, etc. Lots of folks here can direct you to places with more exacting information for formulating and executing an individual plan. Those foods you store should be ones that you will actually consume. Protecting your wealth with Gold and Silver is wise, but see to your food supplies first. In other countries where the monetary system has collapsed, the distribution system is also affected. Not just the shipment of food from some warehouse to your local grocery store, but the entire system, from the farmer's fields through various collection/distribution/processing facilities and down through the chain to your local store.
_________________________________________
"An economy built on fiat money is a society on its way to ashes."
The thought occurred to me that if inflation ever went out of control and led to hyperinflation there would be no way to pay for power as it is pretty much a fixed cost item, meaning that its price will inflate like everything else. Investing in some high powered 165W solar panels now while the dollar still has value would be wise in that the sun is immune to inflation. Depending on what state you live in the local governments will pay up to 50% of it. If worst came to worst having a free source of energy to keep the fridge running in the day, charge some deep cycle 12V batteries to run lighting, tv, dvd player, etc would be nice too.
Because it is so expensive right now I can't do it, but I would feel better if I had even enough to power the fridge and charge a few marine batteries.
They nationalize the power grid (if it wasn't already) and then print the money to pay the power company employees.
Power will probably be spotty with brownouts (or rolling brownouts ala California) and even short term blackouts.
But TPTB are well aware that if they do not maintain the basic services (power, water) then they are going to have to face the mob -- a mob that no longer has anything to lose. And indeed w/o things like power & water, problems in cities (disease,etc) all escalate to a massive level very quickly.
So in general, they do the best they can to keep the power on, the water running, etc -- and they really don't give two hoots whether the electric bill is paid (which of course has it's own consequences). Besides, power rates tend to be set via legislation or some governing board -- and thus tend not to keep up with the hyperinflation anyway. The real problem for the governments in these cases is keeping the power facilities supplied with fuel (and then they LOVE hydroelectric plants).
Start talking to them about preparing for this. They have been doing it for decades. You can kindly tell them that you are not interested in the religion and most will respect that and be more than willing to help out.
Anything that must be transported into an area (not produced locally) will be relatively unavailable due to Gov't imposed price controls. Think about your situation. (one example) Do you live where veggies are available year round or are they trucked in from a warmer climate? The idea behind price controls is obviously to keep essentials affordable however, invariably this equates to shortages and lines, since it quickly becomes of no benefit for a merchant to stock the item to sell at a loss.
Problem=No Veggies Probable
so.... think up a solution in advance according to your climate. I'm in a cold area. Ideas: You could be prepared to grow bean shoots or look into hydro gardening lettuce with an aquarium set-up. Own a grow light or two, pots dirt and seed.
First, there are many who hold the opinion that we are facing a deflationary depression instead of an inflationary one, this view is based on several factors which include the idea that commodities, services and wages will decrease due to a down-turn in the general economy. While it is very true that these factors will affect these areas of the economy in a deflationary manner, these factors do not preclude an inflationary event brought about by the central banks of the world inflating the money supply. Few people realize that deflation is always a precursor to hyperinflation.
Whereas inflation is basically a long-term debasement of the purchasing value of the monetary unit, i.e. the dollar, thus a sustained increase in price levels of goods and services there comes a time when a particular threshold is reached at which point the monetary purchase value of the currency is diminished below the rational rate of exchange. In other words, the value dips lower and lower into what is called a “negative value” making it necessary to “pay” more dollars for each good and service available. Usually, a government will then institute the revaluation of the monetary denomination, increasing the face value in an attempt to balance the perception that they money is basically worthless, of course, this rarely works except through some external intervention, at least in modern times.
Now strangely enough, there is no one factor that facilitates the onset of hyperinflation, it is a number of factors however, the primary source of the hyperinflationary “stage-set” is the continued expansion of both the fiat money and credit that is associated with it over a sustained period of time. Usually the build-up period culminating in hyperinflation remains relatively unseen until it strikes, monetary expansion simply reaches a point that the government itself can no longer purchase as much with the initial money that it is issuing itself. In other words, inflation has caught up with its source. In the usual progression of inflation, the issuer of fiat money is at an advantage, as are the first to circulate the fiat money into the economy while those lower in the circulation economic cycle are at a decidedly disadvantaged state because by the time they seek to exchange “newly issued” money into the economy it has lost much of its purchase power.
During a hyperinflationary period, the moment the “new issue” of money is released it no longer retains any of the purchase power of its face value. Now, as inflation begins to rise at an ever-increasing pace, people will begin to spend their fiat money as fast as they can, exchanging the paper for commodities that they feel will retain some value of exchange because with each passing day their money loses more and more of its purchasing power. It becomes a classic war between the government seeking to issue more money to keep the economic wheels turning and the public attempting to cling to anything of value since the money is losing its purchasing power.
In most cases, hyperinflation, like long-term inflation, transfers wealth from the people to the government however, that is only when the government has an outside support mechanism, such as other countries willing to assist in bringing back stability to the suffering country. In the case of our current global fiat system, that may not be an option in the future because of the interconnectivity of global banking and monetary systems, as well as global economies.
Hyperinflation drastically reduces the efficiency within the economy and the fiat monetary system because people are naturally driven out of the normal markets of commerce into a black-market barter system in order to retain some degree of stability in their lives. The behavior under such conditions would be considered very odd, even bizarre in our eyes at the moment, but under a hyperinflationary period, people almost immediately drop conformity.
If, as I believe, we are heading toward a hyperinflationary breakdown of the fiat monetary system, and indeed the destruction of the system itself, then this will be a societal killer, not merely a period of economic distress or depression.
simply because the "money" inititiating entity/entities (the FED and other World Central banks) are willing or even determined to crank out an ever increasing supply of new "money" does not in and of itself guarantee hyper-inflation or in fact any inflation?
Not trying to be argumentative, just curious about your view.
Since inflation is, by definition, the expansion of money, it would be impossible not to have inflation, or in an extreme case hyperinflation. In other words, the expansion of fiat money leads to and is a direct cause of inflation.
I should have been more specific on terms. I believe the discussion here is focused on the practical concerns about the potential for "inflation" of typical market participants - "price inflartion". If there is monetary inflation without price inflation then for your typical market participant there is no perception of any definition inflation.
I should have been more clear with my question, my encode error not your decode error.
If the FED is fully desirous to create monetary inflation(increase the total money supply) and will do everything it can possibly do to make that happen(remaining cognizant of how USD "money" is created under our current criminal system) does the mere desire and attempt to increase the total money supply(Monetary Inflation) by the FED:
Guarantee the Total Money Supply will increase (Monetary Inflation)?
Whether or not the FEDs mere desire/willingness to increase Total Money Supply guarantees an increase in the Money Supply, assuming for the following question the actual Total Money Supply does increase then:
Does an ACTUAL increase in the Total Supply of Money(Monetary Inflation) guarantee an increase in PRICE INFLATION?
Separate but related question:
Would you agree that M3(which is no longer reported) was only a basis upon which any concerned party could attempt to estimate the total money supply as opposed to M3 being a definitive snapshot at a moment in time of the actual TOTAL supply of USD "money".
My main reason for asking the above is not because I believe my current views on the first two questions are definitive but rather because I am not convinced that my current opinion is definitive and accurate. I am seeking further insight.
I want to clarify that I am definitely NOT in any way supportive of our current monetary system/the FED nor am I condoning any of their past or current actions. I want the FED abolished yesterday if not sooner.
My other reason for raising these questions is I believe many have the impression that the current inflationary desire/actions of the FED will translate inevitably and IMMEDIATELY into ACTUAL loss of dollar value(Price Inflation which I believe is not precisely correct) possibly leading to short run decisions which will be painful and expensive.
Without going into specifics of why, when and how: my current opinion is that the FED will end up, in the long run, significantly increasing the TOTAL money supply and that significant and damaging PRICE inflation will eventually ensue largely due to that monetary inflation.
I think many have the impression that economics is static/it is all figured out. One simply has to ask the correct economist from the correct school of economic thought and they can receive a precise roadmap to proper action for any point in time/any change in conditions. I do not share that view. I also do not share the view that some appear to me to hold; that it is currently possible to achieve any precise monetary result desired and that those in control simply have set a few dials to make that desired precise goal a reality.
All of the foregoing is merely my opinion, which is in good faith based on all the personal knowledge and information I can muster at this time. My opinion, falls somewhere along the line between absoutely correct and absolutely incorrect. My guess is it is not smack on absolutely correct, nor close enough that multiple second opinions would not be absolutely essential.
We must understand that there is a lag time in the mechanics of monetary inflation, that as the increase of money makes its way through the economy that each “distillation” or layer of exchange within the economy with that money “increases” the devaluation of the monetary unit, thus the purchasing power of each unit declines and is reflected in higher prices within the market. Inflation is not instantaneous, it is a process related to what was called the velocity of money.
In a fiat monetary system, the central bank has no other options but to try to balance on the edge of the razor because it must, on one hand expand both credit and the money supply to increase economic growth; on the other hand it must take care not to stimulate growth too broadly or quickly because inflation bubbles tend to be the outcome of such stimulation. It is impossible, within our fiat system, to take a neutral position in terms of monetary and credit expansion; while the same cannot be said in a sound money system the fiat system totally depends on such an expansion to maintain economic growth. Now, in the final stages of the life span of the fiat monetary system there is a naturally occurring distortion within the economy, this, along with several other issues begin to effect the way the economy acts and reacts to certain factors.
One of these reactions is that there is a narrowing of tolerance levels within the general economy of interest rate increases. During early stages within the life span of the fiat monetary system, the economy can generally tolerate and maintain growth with the rise of interest rates, but in the latter stages of the life span that becomes increasingly difficult. With each bust, the range between tolerance levels narrows, as we have seen especially over the last decade. This is a sign that they system is reaching the terminal point within the life span of the entire monetary system itself, not just the fiat economy.
Due to the massive and completely irreversible foundation of debt, upon which the system depends, viability is siphoned off of the general economy and since all economic growth depends on the expansion of this debt, both in the way of expanded credit and the increase of the money supply the system will begin to require and indeed demand more and more influx of both to remain positive, but that stage only last a short time and the next stage of decay sets in rapidly when so much liquidity is required that there is very little tolerance in the system and a rapid increase in inflation becomes very evident triggering a domino effect throughout the system, especially in the people’s confidence, both in the government and the money it prints.
M3 is definitely a factor in determining the money supply, but not necessarily in the determination of how that supply will be translated into inflation because inflation, while primarily dependent upon the money supply, is also effected by the expansion of credit and what is called “bank money” as well. There are therefore, many variables at work here, many unseen and some even beyond calculation because we have moved into a very new territory as we move into the last stages of the fiat monetary systems life span.
The problems we now face is that so much money, so much liquidity is being infused into the system that we, nor the FED, really know how this will effect the system as a whole. There is no real way to calculate how all of this will effect inflation or how long it will take before we see a very definite translation of this influx on the prices of goods and services. There is one thing that is certain, it is a drastic inflationary policy that the FED is now pursuing. Perhaps the greatest mystery in this whole period is human action, how will people react, if they follow historical patterns, which I believe they will, then it is their actions that will determine just how fast the system crashes.
I know his video crash course is a bit elementary pour tu but he is
another very smart guy who has financed informing the world of his own accord. We are all in this thing together...better or worse.
on comparing now to the 20's and 30's. Is this what you mean by this being a societal killer? That so many people do not know how to survive, and do the simple things required for it? Serious indeed! Horrible to think about. And yet, it has given me a small comfort, as I have been worried about my adult children, who probably are not prepared for this coming event. But, we live on a homestead, and home schooled our children, and taught them to work. They all know how to cut wood, cook on and heat with a wood stove, grow a garden, read a book to learn a new skill, hunt, shoot, and butcher a deer, raise chickens, and can and dry foods. I have taught them herbal medicine, botany, and how to find useful edible plants, and which to use for medicine. So, even they are not prepared in the sense of having things stored up, they are prepared in that they have the skills, and the abilities to survive, as so many don't. I remember at church a musical group was visiting and talking to my son about his violin playing, and asked if he used computers, video games, and electrical instruments, (at the time we had no solar). and he said, no, we don't have electricity. The adult musician asked him "how do you do that? live without electricity?" No clue. Sad, we ARE in very bad shape as a nation. I am out of work right now, hmm, if they only knew, I wish I could make some money teaching some of the things that would be very necessary in this coming events.
It sounds like your adult children are more prepared than most, that is a blessing. As far as the societal killer, I am referring to a monetary collapse, as I stated in America's Irreversible State of Collapse, this is different than a hyperinflationary collapse and has to do with the actual life-cycle of the fiat monetary system itself. It is a complete collapse of the Debt Standard on which our fiat monetary system depends. At that point, everything associated with the fiat dollar will collapse, such as all government services, commerical enterprise, etc. In other words everything that we now consider society will follow the systemic collapse of the currency, not merely through a hyperinflationary collapse, but a monetary system collapse.
2 more books you may like are by the Kennedy brothers, "The South was Right" & "Was Jefferson Davis Right?" , these 2 books both go into a Constitutional argument as to how secession is legal and Constitutional, both also have a large bibliography that can turn you on to other books. Have you read " The Real Lincoln"?
Thank you Dr. Paul for making my act on what I already knew was right.
Yes, I have read "The Real Lincoln" and the books by the Kennedy Brothers, along with numerous others, most of which are no longer in print such as the original "The Real Lincoln" by Charles Minor, "Why was Lincoln Murdered" by Otto Eisenschiml, "America's Caesar" by Greg Loren Durand and "The American Union" by James Spence. All of which I highly recommend, but those are just a few of the forgotten treasures of American History.
Unfortunately, hyperinflation is a very real possibility and it doesn't depend on the government's appetite, but on what the government preceives as a necessity in its attempt at stabilizing the current economic and financial distress. It is currently pumping massive, truely massive amounts of "liquidity" into circulation, much more than it has ever expanded before and in such a short period of time that we will not fully see the effects of these actions for a months and at the most a couple of years. Hyperinflation is a strange animal, and it doesn't operate under normal monetary conditions, once it begins it takes on a life of its own and perpetuates itself.
Essentially, the FED, along with the other central banks of the world, have pumped years worth of "liquidity" into circulation within a few months, this is unprecedented, even in the history of the last century and the various countries which suffered from the onset of rapid hyperinflation.
It is in ether Spanish or Portuguese, I can't tell, but it is subtitled in English. There are about 12 parts. I watched them all one day when it was slow at the store.
Thank you Dr. Paul for making my act on what I already knew was right.
aside from taking shelter in a safe rural area, what are people to do? it seems to me that most people are somewhat prepared, but many are not totally prepared to be self sufficient. what are we as a movement prepared to do for our community, and the republic?
The Retrocon
Hope for America, Ron Paul for President in 2008!
There is a whole class of people, not an economic class, that can't do anything for themselves. Talk to any electrician or plumber and they can tell you how many calls a day are to flip a breaker or replace a float. That's just the tip of the iceberg. Have you noticed that as you become more aware of the reality, that even the "experts" seem clueless. They talk about all kinds of things that make great sense in the context of the fairy tale, but they never realize it's all just a show.
Anyway, most people won't know what hit them. Remember, these things take time.
I agree Mike...in fact, go to my blog and read an article I wrote back in 2006 about the differences between now and 1929. It's in the archives on my blog.
Not everyone knows how to do everything...which is why I'm asking what are we prepared to do as a community who is awake...or is it going to be every man for himself?
Coincidentally, I live in Maryland too, Mike.
The Retrocon
Hope for America, Ron Paul for President in 2008!
Every day I deal with customers that can't figure out the simplest mechanical things. How to pull a starter rope, off and on switches, the concept that nails will puncture tires, etc. I am in a semi-rural but growing county, but most of the folks that have moved here recently can't perform the simplest "real work" like task. People look at me starry eyed when I mention that I grow or butcher most of our food myself, I even had to change the battery in one of my friends trucks for him because he couldn't figure it out.
Thank you Dr. Paul for making my act on what I already knew was right.
valueless (each dollar will buy less and less) each passing day--until finally, people lose so much faith in the currency, that dollars will no longer be exchangeable for goods. And if you have savings or investments in the dollar, those will become worthless as well.
Wine or liquor?
As they are cheaper than precious metals, I believe I will stock up on whiskey, rum, and vodka. Not sure about wine as of yet. :)
The Retrocon
Hope for America, Ron Paul for President in 2008!
Great Paper on Hyperinflation coming!
John from Shadow Government stats has a great paper on hyperinflation if you want more info in GREAT detail:
http://www.shadowstats.co...
Ok, I'm understanding...
the basics of the economic movements now, and the likelihood of hyperinflation. I appreciate the posts about bartering, and preparation. Now I am going to ask my question again, in case I wasn't clear before.
What are we as an awakened community going to do when that time comes? Are there plans being made now for mutual support, or is it going to be every man, woman, and child for themselves?
What is the point in only helping my own family survive? We'll all eventually die alone.
The Retrocon
Hope for America, Ron Paul for President in 2008!
Yes, I would be interested in this too
We obviously have had plenty of posts on what to get to prepare, and to learn on that. We probably could use more information on bartering, and the mechanics on that. We have the website for listings for liberty lover's businesses, http://freemarketforliber...
and New Freelander's forum The Rendezvous for meeting others locally.
http://newfreelanders.big...
If we could get some more people to join these, it would step up this mutual support, and if someone with good computer networking skills could get the word out, we may get something going here. It will be sad to see the sheeple having such a rough time, but alas, there will always be people who won't help themselves, just wait for the government to help them. But, I think this may be our opportunity, if we ourselves are truly prepared, and as a group, like republicae said in one of his posts, that we, the remnant will be able to pick up the pieces and be the force to restore our republic.
Dr.Phil
I cant believe hes having the bailout as a topic today..But he is..and here I sit..watching it
Freedom is another way to God...A corrupt government is a straight way to hell.
Practical consequences?
Basically it would mean that as soon as someone handed you a paycheck (likely every day rather than once every two weeks) -- you would immediately rush to cash it at a local bank or grocery or other place (finding a place to cash a check in itself may be a problem -- you may have to go to your employer's bank to cash it -- or possibly get 80 cents on a dollar by cashing it in a back alley).
Once you had the cash -- you would try to spend it as soon as possible and change it into some type of hard asset. Food is the obvious thing -- but, beyond your own family's need for food, you don't want to have too much on hand (unless it is canned, it molds and goes bad you know) -- so instead you buy whatever you can later used to barter with other people.
Physical "hard asset" goods tend not to go bad like fresh food -- so whether you buy a case of soap, or shampoo or a carton of razor blades, etc. well, you take whatever you can get in your area (concentrating on things you know everyone wants).
And virtually everyone becomes somewhat of a "flea market" person then, with black-market or gray-market barter becoming a commonplace way of trading for goods and/or services. If you can pay a plumber with 5 bottles of shampoo to fix your toilet, then he doesn't have to go through the above scenario of check-cashing-to-hard-asset-conversion. (As a consequence, tradespeople needing to travel for work and others who providing "services" and deal with a variety of clients often end up becoming half-serviceman/half-peddler and master barterers, as no one want to hold cash.)
Basically depending on how fast it is being hyper-inflated -- money becomes a virtual "hot potato" that you don't want to hold onto for any longer than you have to. And the idea of "saving" money becomes a matter of laughter -- so "banks" such as they are become pointless except as a place to cash checks -- if you HAVE to maintain an account, you keep a minimal balance (which is likely to increase frequently, limited only by regulations), and instead you count that money as "lost" or the "cost of cashing checks" (much like we see ATM fees today as a "cost of convenience" -- it being cheaper to pay the darned $1.50 than the cost of gas to drive to the bank & back).
Among other things, you could certainly say goodbye to such obtuse business concepts as "Just-In-Time" inventory models -- people will laugh remembering "inventory turns" as being a business goal -- instead, massive inventory levels rule the day, indeed businessmen will seek to convert customers "pumpkin-like" currency payments into hard-asset inventory ASAP (either raw materials or finished goods, since labor costs just go up over time).
Additionally, everyone will try to delay paying for things as much as possible -- since paying a bill (for example a utility or tax bill) even a week or a month late would cut it's cost down significantly -- whereas hopefully your wages would have gone up (again, hopefully significantly).
If that sounds insane, well basically it IS insane. Life becomes like a perverse version of childhood games (remember "musical chairs"? or the aforementioned "hot potato"? Such things become daily life, which seems like someone puts it alternately on "fast forward" and/or on "pause"; and long-term planning goes out the window. Possession becomes MORE than 9/10's of the law, it becomes all that really matters. Friends, family and "who you know" along with DIY skills become the rule of the day. Barter-bribery and finding ways around everything "official" -- which means delays -- become important skills... think Radar O'Reilly in M.A.S.H. probably the most important person in the whole unit because of his barter & exchange connections and skills.)
Just go digging around on the internets... you'll find stories from people who have lived through the recent hyperinflation horrors of Argentina and other countries... it's a real eye opener!
If you live in a large or even medium sized city, you will want
to consider leaving, if possible. Whether you do or not, see to your supplies of basic food items; those that do not require refrigeration. Grains, beans, etc. Lots of folks here can direct you to places with more exacting information for formulating and executing an individual plan. Those foods you store should be ones that you will actually consume. Protecting your wealth with Gold and Silver is wise, but see to your food supplies first. In other countries where the monetary system has collapsed, the distribution system is also affected. Not just the shipment of food from some warehouse to your local grocery store, but the entire system, from the farmer's fields through various collection/distribution/processing facilities and down through the chain to your local store.
_________________________________________
"An economy built on fiat money is a society on its way to ashes."
Another inflation proof comodity
The thought occurred to me that if inflation ever went out of control and led to hyperinflation there would be no way to pay for power as it is pretty much a fixed cost item, meaning that its price will inflate like everything else. Investing in some high powered 165W solar panels now while the dollar still has value would be wise in that the sun is immune to inflation. Depending on what state you live in the local governments will pay up to 50% of it. If worst came to worst having a free source of energy to keep the fridge running in the day, charge some deep cycle 12V batteries to run lighting, tv, dvd player, etc would be nice too.
Because it is so expensive right now I can't do it, but I would feel better if I had even enough to power the fridge and charge a few marine batteries.
Actually the Governments tend to keep power flowing...
They nationalize the power grid (if it wasn't already) and then print the money to pay the power company employees.
Power will probably be spotty with brownouts (or rolling brownouts ala California) and even short term blackouts.
But TPTB are well aware that if they do not maintain the basic services (power, water) then they are going to have to face the mob -- a mob that no longer has anything to lose. And indeed w/o things like power & water, problems in cities (disease,etc) all escalate to a massive level very quickly.
So in general, they do the best they can to keep the power on, the water running, etc -- and they really don't give two hoots whether the electric bill is paid (which of course has it's own consequences). Besides, power rates tend to be set via legislation or some governing board -- and thus tend not to keep up with the hyperinflation anyway. The real problem for the governments in these cases is keeping the power facilities supplied with fuel (and then they LOVE hydroelectric plants).
If you know any Mormons
Start talking to them about preparing for this. They have been doing it for decades. You can kindly tell them that you are not interested in the religion and most will respect that and be more than willing to help out.
Here is a link for some useful info:
http://providentliving.or...
PeterSchiff speaks of
the likelihood of price controls which will make targets of control scarce like the gas situation in the Southeast recently.
So, instead of having
So, instead of having runaway prices we will have shortages.
No, we will have both.
We will have shortages in "approved" markets, runaway prices in black markets.
Right, in essentials like basic food stuffs
Anything that must be transported into an area (not produced locally) will be relatively unavailable due to Gov't imposed price controls. Think about your situation. (one example) Do you live where veggies are available year round or are they trucked in from a warmer climate? The idea behind price controls is obviously to keep essentials affordable however, invariably this equates to shortages and lines, since it quickly becomes of no benefit for a merchant to stock the item to sell at a loss.
Problem=No Veggies Probable
so.... think up a solution in advance according to your climate. I'm in a cold area. Ideas: You could be prepared to grow bean shoots or look into hydro gardening lettuce with an aquarium set-up. Own a grow light or two, pots dirt and seed.
I'm in total
I'm in total agreement.
http://www.1776solution.b...
First, there are many who
First, there are many who hold the opinion that we are facing a deflationary depression instead of an inflationary one, this view is based on several factors which include the idea that commodities, services and wages will decrease due to a down-turn in the general economy. While it is very true that these factors will affect these areas of the economy in a deflationary manner, these factors do not preclude an inflationary event brought about by the central banks of the world inflating the money supply. Few people realize that deflation is always a precursor to hyperinflation.
Whereas inflation is basically a long-term debasement of the purchasing value of the monetary unit, i.e. the dollar, thus a sustained increase in price levels of goods and services there comes a time when a particular threshold is reached at which point the monetary purchase value of the currency is diminished below the rational rate of exchange. In other words, the value dips lower and lower into what is called a “negative value” making it necessary to “pay” more dollars for each good and service available. Usually, a government will then institute the revaluation of the monetary denomination, increasing the face value in an attempt to balance the perception that they money is basically worthless, of course, this rarely works except through some external intervention, at least in modern times.
Now strangely enough, there is no one factor that facilitates the onset of hyperinflation, it is a number of factors however, the primary source of the hyperinflationary “stage-set” is the continued expansion of both the fiat money and credit that is associated with it over a sustained period of time. Usually the build-up period culminating in hyperinflation remains relatively unseen until it strikes, monetary expansion simply reaches a point that the government itself can no longer purchase as much with the initial money that it is issuing itself. In other words, inflation has caught up with its source. In the usual progression of inflation, the issuer of fiat money is at an advantage, as are the first to circulate the fiat money into the economy while those lower in the circulation economic cycle are at a decidedly disadvantaged state because by the time they seek to exchange “newly issued” money into the economy it has lost much of its purchase power.
During a hyperinflationary period, the moment the “new issue” of money is released it no longer retains any of the purchase power of its face value. Now, as inflation begins to rise at an ever-increasing pace, people will begin to spend their fiat money as fast as they can, exchanging the paper for commodities that they feel will retain some value of exchange because with each passing day their money loses more and more of its purchasing power. It becomes a classic war between the government seeking to issue more money to keep the economic wheels turning and the public attempting to cling to anything of value since the money is losing its purchasing power.
In most cases, hyperinflation, like long-term inflation, transfers wealth from the people to the government however, that is only when the government has an outside support mechanism, such as other countries willing to assist in bringing back stability to the suffering country. In the case of our current global fiat system, that may not be an option in the future because of the interconnectivity of global banking and monetary systems, as well as global economies.
Hyperinflation drastically reduces the efficiency within the economy and the fiat monetary system because people are naturally driven out of the normal markets of commerce into a black-market barter system in order to retain some degree of stability in their lives. The behavior under such conditions would be considered very odd, even bizarre in our eyes at the moment, but under a hyperinflationary period, people almost immediately drop conformity.
If, as I believe, we are heading toward a hyperinflationary breakdown of the fiat monetary system, and indeed the destruction of the system itself, then this will be a societal killer, not merely a period of economic distress or depression.
http://www.1776solution.b...
Republicae would you agree that
simply because the "money" inititiating entity/entities (the FED and other World Central banks) are willing or even determined to crank out an ever increasing supply of new "money" does not in and of itself guarantee hyper-inflation or in fact any inflation?
Not trying to be argumentative, just curious about your view.
Since inflation is, by
Since inflation is, by definition, the expansion of money, it would be impossible not to have inflation, or in an extreme case hyperinflation. In other words, the expansion of fiat money leads to and is a direct cause of inflation.
http://www.1776solution.b...
Thanks for the reply Republicae
and I do enjoy reading your opinion.
I should have been more specific on terms. I believe the discussion here is focused on the practical concerns about the potential for "inflation" of typical market participants - "price inflartion". If there is monetary inflation without price inflation then for your typical market participant there is no perception of any definition inflation.
I should have been more clear with my question, my encode error not your decode error.
If the FED is fully desirous to create monetary inflation(increase the total money supply) and will do everything it can possibly do to make that happen(remaining cognizant of how USD "money" is created under our current criminal system) does the mere desire and attempt to increase the total money supply(Monetary Inflation) by the FED:
Guarantee the Total Money Supply will increase (Monetary Inflation)?
Whether or not the FEDs mere desire/willingness to increase Total Money Supply guarantees an increase in the Money Supply, assuming for the following question the actual Total Money Supply does increase then:
Does an ACTUAL increase in the Total Supply of Money(Monetary Inflation) guarantee an increase in PRICE INFLATION?
Separate but related question:
Would you agree that M3(which is no longer reported) was only a basis upon which any concerned party could attempt to estimate the total money supply as opposed to M3 being a definitive snapshot at a moment in time of the actual TOTAL supply of USD "money".
My main reason for asking the above is not because I believe my current views on the first two questions are definitive but rather because I am not convinced that my current opinion is definitive and accurate. I am seeking further insight.
I want to clarify that I am definitely NOT in any way supportive of our current monetary system/the FED nor am I condoning any of their past or current actions. I want the FED abolished yesterday if not sooner.
My other reason for raising these questions is I believe many have the impression that the current inflationary desire/actions of the FED will translate inevitably and IMMEDIATELY into ACTUAL loss of dollar value(Price Inflation which I believe is not precisely correct) possibly leading to short run decisions which will be painful and expensive.
Without going into specifics of why, when and how: my current opinion is that the FED will end up, in the long run, significantly increasing the TOTAL money supply and that significant and damaging PRICE inflation will eventually ensue largely due to that monetary inflation.
I think many have the impression that economics is static/it is all figured out. One simply has to ask the correct economist from the correct school of economic thought and they can receive a precise roadmap to proper action for any point in time/any change in conditions. I do not share that view. I also do not share the view that some appear to me to hold; that it is currently possible to achieve any precise monetary result desired and that those in control simply have set a few dials to make that desired precise goal a reality.
All of the foregoing is merely my opinion, which is in good faith based on all the personal knowledge and information I can muster at this time. My opinion, falls somewhere along the line between absoutely correct and absolutely incorrect. My guess is it is not smack on absolutely correct, nor close enough that multiple second opinions would not be absolutely essential.
We must understand that
We must understand that there is a lag time in the mechanics of monetary inflation, that as the increase of money makes its way through the economy that each “distillation” or layer of exchange within the economy with that money “increases” the devaluation of the monetary unit, thus the purchasing power of each unit declines and is reflected in higher prices within the market. Inflation is not instantaneous, it is a process related to what was called the velocity of money.
In a fiat monetary system, the central bank has no other options but to try to balance on the edge of the razor because it must, on one hand expand both credit and the money supply to increase economic growth; on the other hand it must take care not to stimulate growth too broadly or quickly because inflation bubbles tend to be the outcome of such stimulation. It is impossible, within our fiat system, to take a neutral position in terms of monetary and credit expansion; while the same cannot be said in a sound money system the fiat system totally depends on such an expansion to maintain economic growth. Now, in the final stages of the life span of the fiat monetary system there is a naturally occurring distortion within the economy, this, along with several other issues begin to effect the way the economy acts and reacts to certain factors.
One of these reactions is that there is a narrowing of tolerance levels within the general economy of interest rate increases. During early stages within the life span of the fiat monetary system, the economy can generally tolerate and maintain growth with the rise of interest rates, but in the latter stages of the life span that becomes increasingly difficult. With each bust, the range between tolerance levels narrows, as we have seen especially over the last decade. This is a sign that they system is reaching the terminal point within the life span of the entire monetary system itself, not just the fiat economy.
Due to the massive and completely irreversible foundation of debt, upon which the system depends, viability is siphoned off of the general economy and since all economic growth depends on the expansion of this debt, both in the way of expanded credit and the increase of the money supply the system will begin to require and indeed demand more and more influx of both to remain positive, but that stage only last a short time and the next stage of decay sets in rapidly when so much liquidity is required that there is very little tolerance in the system and a rapid increase in inflation becomes very evident triggering a domino effect throughout the system, especially in the people’s confidence, both in the government and the money it prints.
M3 is definitely a factor in determining the money supply, but not necessarily in the determination of how that supply will be translated into inflation because inflation, while primarily dependent upon the money supply, is also effected by the expansion of credit and what is called “bank money” as well. There are therefore, many variables at work here, many unseen and some even beyond calculation because we have moved into a very new territory as we move into the last stages of the fiat monetary systems life span.
The problems we now face is that so much money, so much liquidity is being infused into the system that we, nor the FED, really know how this will effect the system as a whole. There is no real way to calculate how all of this will effect inflation or how long it will take before we see a very definite translation of this influx on the prices of goods and services. There is one thing that is certain, it is a drastic inflationary policy that the FED is now pursuing. Perhaps the greatest mystery in this whole period is human action, how will people react, if they follow historical patterns, which I believe they will, then it is their actions that will determine just how fast the system crashes.
http://www.1776solution.b...
We could see a rogue central bank break from the agreement ...
completely eliminate its peg and see where the chips fall.
However unlikely, this is possible, isn't it?
If so follow the moves of the chess game.
Could this be the birth of a sound money system and the end of central banks?
Japan seems to be in a good position to do this, am I correct?
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/...
Yeah, but to do so would cut their nose off to spit their face..
Because Japanese banks are actually the LARGEST holder of Treasury Bills... they have even more in TBills than the Chinese do.
You are correct ...
No better time than to start shorting than when the dollar is sky high.
They could take the stealth approach initially to minimize losses.
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/...
Martenson put together a graph
showing the Feds Radical Action
www.chrismartenson.com/bl...
(It also notes the previous increases for a decade...Y2K 9-11. A picture speaks a thousand words as they say)
Thanks Susan...will take a
Thanks Susan...will take a look at it, I enjoyed reading Martenson's work, thanks again for the recommendation.
http://www.1776solution.b...
Youre Very Welcome Republicae :)
I know his video crash course is a bit elementary pour tu but he is
another very smart guy who has financed informing the world of his own accord. We are all in this thing together...better or worse.
There was also a link to an iTulip article: Confusion Reigns
www.itulip.com/forums/sho...
I just read your blog and the one
on comparing now to the 20's and 30's. Is this what you mean by this being a societal killer? That so many people do not know how to survive, and do the simple things required for it? Serious indeed! Horrible to think about. And yet, it has given me a small comfort, as I have been worried about my adult children, who probably are not prepared for this coming event. But, we live on a homestead, and home schooled our children, and taught them to work. They all know how to cut wood, cook on and heat with a wood stove, grow a garden, read a book to learn a new skill, hunt, shoot, and butcher a deer, raise chickens, and can and dry foods. I have taught them herbal medicine, botany, and how to find useful edible plants, and which to use for medicine. So, even they are not prepared in the sense of having things stored up, they are prepared in that they have the skills, and the abilities to survive, as so many don't. I remember at church a musical group was visiting and talking to my son about his violin playing, and asked if he used computers, video games, and electrical instruments, (at the time we had no solar). and he said, no, we don't have electricity. The adult musician asked him "how do you do that? live without electricity?" No clue. Sad, we ARE in very bad shape as a nation. I am out of work right now, hmm, if they only knew, I wish I could make some money teaching some of the things that would be very necessary in this coming events.
It sounds like your adult
It sounds like your adult children are more prepared than most, that is a blessing. As far as the societal killer, I am referring to a monetary collapse, as I stated in America's Irreversible State of Collapse, this is different than a hyperinflationary collapse and has to do with the actual life-cycle of the fiat monetary system itself. It is a complete collapse of the Debt Standard on which our fiat monetary system depends. At that point, everything associated with the fiat dollar will collapse, such as all government services, commerical enterprise, etc. In other words everything that we now consider society will follow the systemic collapse of the currency, not merely through a hyperinflationary collapse, but a monetary system collapse.
http://www.1776solution.b...
Just looked at your blog also and saw your books you like list
2 more books you may like are by the Kennedy brothers, "The South was Right" & "Was Jefferson Davis Right?" , these 2 books both go into a Constitutional argument as to how secession is legal and Constitutional, both also have a large bibliography that can turn you on to other books. Have you read " The Real Lincoln"?
Thank you Dr. Paul for making my act on what I already knew was right.
Yes, I have read "The Real
Yes, I have read "The Real Lincoln" and the books by the Kennedy Brothers, along with numerous others, most of which are no longer in print such as the original "The Real Lincoln" by Charles Minor, "Why was Lincoln Murdered" by Otto Eisenschiml, "America's Caesar" by Greg Loren Durand and "The American Union" by James Spence. All of which I highly recommend, but those are just a few of the forgotten treasures of American History.
http://www.1776solution.b...
Republicae
Greatly enjoy your blog. Was also checking out the book list and was wondering if you have ever read War for What by Francis Springer.
Yes, I have read War for
Yes, I have read War for What, another very good book on the vastly misrepresented and misunderstood War For Southern Independence.
By the way, I have just started another blog at:
http://sovereignsouth.blo...
At the moment I only have one article on this site, but hope to write more when I find just a little more time.
Thanks...
http://www.1776solution.b...
Because of the FED dual mandate by Congress ....
Hyper-inflation is not realistic unless ....
The government's appetite to spend is sustained and therefore ...
The dual mandate is lifted so that the government can ....
collect its taxes to pay the bills ...
One other external cause would be ...
a global, unanamous, near instant rejection of the dollar ...
Both of these are possible, but not probable.
Deflation and possibly a deflationary depression are the two most reasonable paths that we will be forced to take.
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/...
Unfortunately,
Unfortunately, hyperinflation is a very real possibility and it doesn't depend on the government's appetite, but on what the government preceives as a necessity in its attempt at stabilizing the current economic and financial distress. It is currently pumping massive, truely massive amounts of "liquidity" into circulation, much more than it has ever expanded before and in such a short period of time that we will not fully see the effects of these actions for a months and at the most a couple of years. Hyperinflation is a strange animal, and it doesn't operate under normal monetary conditions, once it begins it takes on a life of its own and perpetuates itself.
Essentially, the FED, along with the other central banks of the world, have pumped years worth of "liquidity" into circulation within a few months, this is unprecedented, even in the history of the last century and the various countries which suffered from the onset of rapid hyperinflation.
http://www.1776solution.b...
I apologize, you are correct ...
There is a third way ...
If they are too successful in freeing up the credit markets ...
M3 would skyrocket ...
But this too, is less likely because of what I stated above and ...
because of the global nature of our economy now...
Each region is in different stages therefore ...
M3 is most likely to have a slow steady rise ....
which can be somewhat controlled by policy.
I am not saying hyperinflation is not inevitable ...
I am just saying it will still be some time down the road ...
This big market grab will eventually lead to hyper-inflation ...
But not for a decade or two ...
Policies will have to be codified to insure such a result ...
It will come, but not tomorrow, not next month, not next year.
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/...
You are very
You are very optimistic.....I give it between 2 to 4 years at best.
http://www.1776solution.b...
You may be right ...
I was merely offering probabilities and possibilities.
Some individuals are swearing to all hell and back that an inflationary depression is on the door step. 100% certainty.
I am merely suggesting that we need to keep our heads and continue to build wealth for now. At some point it will bring benefit to freedom.
I don't want people sinking 50% of their assets in gold and shorting the dollar with the other 50%.
That would not be prudent.
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/...
Here is a link to a pretty good documentary about Argentina
http://www.youtube.com/wa...
It is in ether Spanish or Portuguese, I can't tell, but it is subtitled in English. There are about 12 parts. I watched them all one day when it was slow at the store.
Thank you Dr. Paul for making my act on what I already knew was right.
Yes that's an excellent flick
the promises, the main players, the result
got it...
aside from taking shelter in a safe rural area, what are people to do? it seems to me that most people are somewhat prepared, but many are not totally prepared to be self sufficient. what are we as a movement prepared to do for our community, and the republic?
The Retrocon
Hope for America, Ron Paul for President in 2008!
I have to disagree about most people being prepared
There is a whole class of people, not an economic class, that can't do anything for themselves. Talk to any electrician or plumber and they can tell you how many calls a day are to flip a breaker or replace a float. That's just the tip of the iceberg. Have you noticed that as you become more aware of the reality, that even the "experts" seem clueless. They talk about all kinds of things that make great sense in the context of the fairy tale, but they never realize it's all just a show.
Anyway, most people won't know what hit them. Remember, these things take time.
I agree Mike...in fact, go
I agree Mike...in fact, go to my blog and read an article I wrote back in 2006 about the differences between now and 1929. It's in the archives on my blog.
http://www.1776solution.b...
That is to be expected, right?
Not everyone knows how to do everything...which is why I'm asking what are we prepared to do as a community who is awake...or is it going to be every man for himself?
Coincidentally, I live in Maryland too, Mike.
The Retrocon
Hope for America, Ron Paul for President in 2008!
True
Every day I deal with customers that can't figure out the simplest mechanical things. How to pull a starter rope, off and on switches, the concept that nails will puncture tires, etc. I am in a semi-rural but growing county, but most of the folks that have moved here recently can't perform the simplest "real work" like task. People look at me starry eyed when I mention that I grow or butcher most of our food myself, I even had to change the battery in one of my friends trucks for him because he couldn't figure it out.
Thank you Dr. Paul for making my act on what I already knew was right.
Your currency will become
valueless (each dollar will buy less and less) each passing day--until finally, people lose so much faith in the currency, that dollars will no longer be exchangeable for goods. And if you have savings or investments in the dollar, those will become worthless as well.
research zimbabwe!
research zimbabwe! shortages of food, fuel, bank closings etc..
"When governments fear the people there is liberty. When the people fear the government there is tyranny."
-Thomas Jefferson
I am more concerned about the return of my money than the return on my money. --Mark Twain
And Weimar Germany. I'm not kidding.
http://en.wikipedia.org/w...
"Being an old farm boy myself, chickens coming home to roost never did make me sad; they've always made me glad." - Malcolm X.
http://uk.youtube.com/wat...
Proof that "Money As Debt" and Zeitgeist Addendum are wrong:
http://www.freedom-force....
bump
bump