I AM NOW VERY BULLISH ON GOLD AND SILVER. (UPDATE: NOT SO SURE ANYMORE)
I still believe that it is extremely important to have enough dollars, but I am now very bullish on gold and silver. This is not a recommendation and it is not an advice, but my opinion now is that for those who have more than enough cash, this might potentially be a very good time to buy gold and silver.
I still believe that we are very likely to have a major deflation, but I also believe that gold is likely to do well in deflation in the long run, even though, I think gold has a big short term price volatility risk.
It is 2:05AM EST on 10/30/2008.
Update: Corrected a typo at 2:07AM EST on 10/30/2008.
Update: 11:32PM EST 11/11/2008. The bullish feeling that I had on 10/30/2008 is now gone. I don't know what will happen to gold and silver. I hope gold and silver will go up for those who are long, but I just don't know. Maybe they will go up or maybe they won't. I have no idea.
output
you are not even sure if you
you are not even sure if you are a man or woman!
"When governments fear the people there is liberty. When the people fear the government there is tyranny."
-Thomas Jefferson
I am more concerned about the return of my money than the return on my money. --Mark Twain
I AM VERY BULLISH ON THE SUN RISING TOMORROW.
Freedom Isn't Free... Freedom costs a buck 'o five - Trey Parker
Damn you're controversial!
Damn you're controversial!
Not long. Don't care.
Not short. Don't care.
Not stupid. Not losing.
Stop posting crap like this. It's a waste of bandwith.
You obviously have no clue when it comes to economics.
M7
The Dutch Tulip Bubble of 1637
The later part of the 20th century saw its share of odd financial bubbles. There was the real-estate bubble, the stock market bubbles, and the dot com bubble, just to name a few. In each instance of price inflation people paid exorbitant amounts for things that shouldn't have been worth anything like the going price. And each time people stood around afterwards and said “What were we thinking?”
One has to believe that the same thought occurred to the Dutch in the 17th century when they settled down after their bout with tulipomania, wherein the humble tulip bulb began to sell for prices to make New York Realtors blanch.
A single Viceroy tulip bulb would sell for 2500 florins a value roughly equivalent to $1,250 in current American dollars, while a rarer Semper Augustus bulb could easily go for twice that. One particularly amusing exchange showed the goods traded for one bulb – the lengthy list includes among other things: a bed, a complete suit of clothes, and a thousand pounds of cheese. At the height of the mania, in what seems a complete loss of sanity, the bulbs were deemed too valuable to risk planting by their (formerly) wealthy purchasers, and it became popular to display the plain ungrown bulbs. In at least one instance the plan for safety backfired when a visiting sailor mistook a tulip bulb for an onion, and proceeded to eat it for breakfast.
The height of the bubble was reached in the winter of 1636-37. Tulip traders were making (and losing) fortunes regularly. A good trader could earn up to 60,000 florins in a month– approximately $61,710 adjusted to current U.S. dollars. With profits like those to be had, nothing local governments could do stopped the frenzy of trading. Then one day in Haarlem a buyer failed to show up and pay for his bulb purchase. The ensuing panic spread across Holland, and within days tulip bulbs were worth only a hundredth of their former prices. The tulip bubble had burst.
Is goldmania different ?
Wow! Good thing I read this post!
Please do all of us precious metal believers a favor and stay out of the market.
Why post your wishy-washyness?
All that glitters is not GLD
Are you guys talking about gold, or the ETF GLD? There is a difference, you know.
Is that the same difference between
Au and "gold?"
Somewhere in hell, John Maynard Keynes is laughing maniacally and dancing a jig.
Thanks
Now I know the wave 2 is over.. and can buy Gold tomorrow.
The low is in and the OCT 24th low won't be taken out. That is what my $$ says. I wrote this I think 2-3 days ago.
It is just now getting to a point where you can get in with a decent stop loss and get a good risk / reward ratio on a trade. (3-1 ++) Rally into Jan 9.
The Dow & S&P will make their lows tomorrow by 9 a.m. cst and will also Rally into Mid January... I
At least that is what the $$ is going down on the table tomorrow for.
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IN THE LONG RUN ~ AND HISTORICALLY...Gold will Go Down as well. Just not as far / fast as $ and other commodities therefore it is a inflation hedge, but not a vehicle to profit.
You can't freaking eat Gold and when the economy gets so bad people they would rather have bread than Gold. Gold is great during panics but in the long run this will continue to deteriorate like gangreen...We will just have a momentary relapse here for a month or two.
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I think we see a small bump
I think we see a small bump tomorrow, people thinking we'll swing back into the high 8000, low 9000 range.
But it'll last a few hours and then we're down for the day.
Then Friday maybe more of the same, and a sell off before the weekend.
I noticed a lack of panic movement. This was just a steady decline....almost as if people were ready to accept that 8800-9200 dow is not reflecting real life accurately.
I think we have a new range of 7800-8400 to trade for a few weeks.
Then horrific Christmas sales will headline retailer after retailer, announcing worst sales in 30 years, worst declines in 20 years, worst this that and the other, 40 years....lol
We see a few little pops, but only when we dip low enough for bargain hunters to come in and give a boost. But we'll stay in the high 7s.
After New Years, it's anyone's guess. I expect Spring to be a lot of false starts. Maybe we're still fighting for the occassional pop to low 9000 Dow. To quickly drop back down.
Then summer..... should be interesting.
A blurb about seasonal trading I found:
Abstract: We use seasonality in stock trading activity associated with summer vacation as a source of exogenous variation to study the relationship between trading volume and expected return. Using data from 51 stock markets, we first confirm a widely held belief that stock turnover is significantly lower during the summer because market participants are on vacation. Interestingly, we find that mean stock return is also lower during the summer for countries with significant declines in trading activity. This relationship is not due to time-varying volatility. Moreover, both large and small investors trade less and the price of trading (bid-ask spread) is higher during the summer. These findings suggest that heterogeneous agent models are essential for a complete understanding of asset prices.
Of course I could be wrong, and the market goes roaring off.
But I'm not betting my money on that.
Well, good luck to you.
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
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be...
...a long-long on gold/silver......hold it. don't worry.
.
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
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Updated on 11/11/2008.
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
---
I just don't know what will happen to the price of gold and silver.
At the moment the William's
At the moment the William's %R indicates gold is oversold, so does ROC and Momentum and the MACD shows a positive crossover.
http://www.1776solution.b...
I would remind you that extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice! And let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue. Barry Goldwater
Play it safe people, but
Play it safe people, but gold and silver with some numismatic value.
Didn't realize his site is completely down but
I found this from one of his e-mails on 10-31-08. It's a good idea to join his e-mail list from this time onward.
Jim Sinclair's Commentary
I, like yourself, am fed up with the gold bank's ownership of the gold price via paper instruments. Therefore I respectfully ask those that can afford it to purchase as many Comex contracts as you can afford to take delivery of and do so.
Accept my assurance that I will take delivery of Comex 100 ounce bars on every delivery month from this day forward.
Respectfully yours,
Jim
Mr. Sinclair
Didn't Mr. Sinclair guarantee that gold would be over $1100 at year end? I may have the number wrong, but it was something like that. It's going to have to hurry. And what was with all those "This is it" announcements? Which one was it? What was it?
You gold bugs are going to
You gold bugs are going to get bitten hard if you don't watch out. Gold is not going up. It will continue to drop.
On Oct. 8 / 2009, two days before my 51'st birthday
My wife will be buying a dozen eggs for my birthday cake at our local supermarket.
The price for these eggs will be $47.49
I will hand her one walking liberty half dollar coin to pay the cashier,
she will receive 2 one dollar frn's and some change back.
I know...I dreamed it two nights ago! haha
STACK,STACK,STACK!!!
Great forum GREED
Jim Sinclair's site is having technical problems, but go there at www.jsmineset.com
and review both of his postings to see what he is doing with the COMEX manipulation of gold. Very interesting, could be powerful.
SILVER SHORTAGE? MAD SEARCH FOR SILVER? REALLY?
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
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http://www.google.com/tre...
Buy land, their not making it anymore.
Gold is what you buy when you have FRNs left over, gold is what you trade when you have nothing left. Unless of course they change the legal tender laws.
grant
Oooo! Math talk!
When a function is parabolic, it means that as the independent variable has linear growth (like time), then the dependent variable grows exponentially.
y=x^2 is a parabola.
Parabolic growth doesn't necessarily mean positive growth. You can have downward-facing parabolas.
Another word you might hear creep up in economic talk is 'asymptotic', which means "it grows so fast that it hits infinity". The graph of y=tan(x) has asymptotes.
If hyperinflation hits, the dollar price of commodities will hit a positive asymptote with respect to time.
My Shelfari page
In real life, exponential growth
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
---
doesn't last forever and it crashes down, in my opinion, like the dow in 1929 or Nikkei in 1990 or Nasdac in 2000 or the recent housing market or I'm thinking the supply of dollars in the future.
I'm concerned about DEFLATION OF INCOME AND JOBS and the consequences.
Let me know if your income is growing fast or if your company is hiring like crazy.
GREED…..Sooner or later
GREED…..Sooner or later you are going to realize that there is a great deal of difference between deflationary economic growth and inflationary monetary policy. Once again, deflationary sectors in the markets do not preclude monetary inflation. If the FED is inflating the money supply, especially during a deflationary bout, the results will always be the eventuality of inflationary pricing. What we currently are seeing is a classic “log-jam” within the markets, the position the FED has taken is one that is usually takes: INFLATE. Now, according to what information we currently can obtain, the FED has roughly inflated the monetary supply this year around 300%, if this is true then we will eventually see a reflective rate of inflation in the prices of goods and services, whether the economy is depressed or not. Monetary mechanics, particularly those within a fiat monetary system, are not necessarily influenced by economic mechanics, but rest assured that economic mechanics will always be influenced by monetary mechanics, particularly those with the fiat realm.
One of the interesting notions that are making its round once again is that during The Great Depression the Federal Reserve was not able to inflate during the crisis because prices were simply deflating much more rapid than the FED could counteract. While that is true to a degree during that period we must remember that there have been some very drastic transformations during the last 40 years in both the institutional and monetary framework of the Central Banking process, perhaps the most striking one is that during the 1930s, the monetary system was still on a gold-backed, partially fiat system, today that is no longer the case. Remember, money back by gold poses a very restrictive and narrow means of operation for any Central Bank, that's the main reason so many Central Planners hate gold.
The FED has long been freed from the restrains that gold money placed upon it, especially the restrains it confronted during the deflationary Great Depression. It was restrained from inflating during that period because of the fundamental foundation of the monetary system of that period. There are no longer any such restrains that limit the ability of the FED to inflate to combat any deflationary pressure it sees in the economy. While I understand that those who see a deflationary depression on the horizon are coming from, the claim that because there has been excessive credit creation and therefore excessive debt, including massive defaults in the economy that the FED has reached a point in which they have effectively lost control over the money supply and that deflation is increasing faster than the FED so that it can now only "push the string" can inflate is erroneous. While it appears that there is indeed areas within the economy that will suffer from deflation, the response will be an unrestrained push by the FED to inflate on a massive scale, one that we are already beginning to witness.
http://www.1776solution.b...
I would remind you that extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice! And let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue. Barry Goldwater
IT APPEARS THAT YOU ARE TOTALLY BRAINWASHED BY THE FED IF
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
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YOU DON'T WORK FOR THE FED.
Gosh...what a boob you
Gosh...what a boob you apparently are!
Now, that you have made the accusation that I am either brain-washed by the FED or I work for them....tell me, give me details on what would make you spit that slur out of your juvenile mouth?
Come on, stand up for your words if you can...because I can guarantee you that I will tear your opinions to shreds if they are not based on factual information.
PUT UP OR SHUT UP! HOW MUCH OF A MAN ARE YOU, ARE YOU MAN ENOUGH TO STAND UP FOR YOUR OPINIONS, THEN GIVE US DETAILS ON THOSE POSITIONS YOU TAKE. DON'T JUST SPIT SOMETHING OUT AND EXPECT PEOPLE TO GIVE YOU CREDENCE BASED SOLELY UPON UNSUBSTANTIATED OPINIONS.
HERE ARE A FEW ARTICLES I HAVE WRITTEN ABOUT THE FED:
http://www.nolanchart.com...
http://www.nolanchart.com...
http://www.nolanchart.com...
http://www.nolanchart.com...
http://www.nolanchart.com...
http://www.nolanchart.com...
http://www.nolanchart.com...
http://www.1776solution.b...
I would remind you that extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice! And let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue. Barry Goldwater
I hate to be mean GREED, but
I hate to be mean GREED, but you are proving yourself to be a total bafoon. You have already proven that you don't know squat about monetary mechanics, you don't seem to be aware of monetary history or financial history. You give your opinions without a single basis for those opinions. Did you read the books I suggested to you earlier?
I strongly suggest that you read Murray Rothbard's The Great Depression, Rothbard's Economic Depressions: Causes and Cures, Rothbard's The Mystery of Banking, Rothbards The Austrian Theory of Money, Rothbards The Case Against the FED, Mises's The Theory of Money and Credit, Hulsman's Deflation and Liberty, Hulsman's Facts and Counterfactuals in Economics, Hayeks The Pure Theory of Capital, Hayek's Can We Still Avoid Inflation?, Salernos A Simple Model of Money Prices, Solernos An Austrian Taxonomy of Deflation.
Once you read those then you should be able to make some sort of informed opinion, until then you are simply making conjecture with absolutely no evidence to back up what you are saying.
...and, if I worked for the FED, the they should have fired me long ago because if you read my writings you will find a long, long history of my OVERT OBJECTION AND DISDAIN FOR THE FEDERAL RESERVE. I have probably been fighting the FED longer than you have been alive. It is quite irritating when people like you, who obviously don't possess either the knowledge or the ability to express opinions based on knowledge must resort to the tactics that you have taken above, obviously out of some emotional deficiency on your part to resort to slurs. That truly makes your future comments hold an even weaker position of credibility.
http://www.1776solution.b...
I would remind you that extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice! And let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue. Barry Goldwater
WAKE UP! DEFLATION OF INCOME AND JOBS.
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
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So, you are watering down
So, you are watering down your "deflationary" cry to just income and jobs now? Is that it? Before you were crying that there would be a massive deflationary depression, and then you cried that gold is a hedge against deflation [contrary to monetary mechanics, by the way]....I mean how many different scenarios will you come up with Greed? Do you know which way is up, which way is down...do you know where you live?
Tell me what you know about it?
I want details to back up everything you have cried out about over the last couple of months about your opinions, not just opinions.
http://www.1776solution.b...
I would remind you that extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice! And let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue. Barry Goldwater
greed- another- article to
greed- another- article to make you even more bullish on gold/silver! hope you are buying!
http://www.sprott.com/pdf...
"When governments fear the people there is liberty. When the people fear the government there is tyranny."
-Thomas Jefferson
I am more concerned about the return of my money than the return on my money. --Mark Twain
I think this gives a good reason for buyin gold
http://www.gold-eagle.com...
Like i said, if you are on the beach wading in the water and suddenly the water recedes and you can't see any, then better run like hell cause there is a big wave coming. The rise in the dollar on the FOREX is the water receding. Time to run to high ground which is gold.
Gold is a HEDGE against INFLATION.
Apparently, GREEDisBAD has not read Ron Paul's essay "What the price of gold is telling us".
http://www.mises.org/Book...
Would you trade your liberty for a flying car?
http://www.youtube.com/wa...
What if World War 2 was fought by today's teenagers?
http://www.youtube.com/wa...
Apparently GREED has not
Apparently GREED has not read a great deal of anything when he states that gold is a hedge against deflation. Just the opposite is true in a fiat monetary system...dollars rise in their purchase value because there is a contraction in the money supply.
http://www.1776solution.b...
Censored!
I tried the link to the "What if WWII was fought by today's teenagers?" link.
Got a message from youtube telling me that that video is not available in my country.
I live in the USA!
Things are only impossible until they are not.
-- Jean Luc Picard
There might be a simple way round it.
If you change your location or language settings to "UK" or "English UK" that might work. Of course, you can change them back afterwards.
The video is just a BBC comedy sketch from the "Armstrong & Miller Show".
For some reason, youtube doesn't like Americans watching the BBC, or Brits watching HBO.
http://www.mises.org/Book...
Would you trade your liberty for a flying car?
http://www.youtube.com/wa...
What if World War 2 was fought by today's teenagers?
http://www.youtube.com/wa...
Gold is a HEDGE against DEFLATION, in my opinion.
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
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"In my opinion..." How many times have you used those words?
Without offering anything in support of your opinions?
http://www.mises.org/Book...
Would you trade your liberty for a flying car?
http://www.youtube.com/wa...
What if World War 2 was fought by today's teenagers?
http://www.youtube.com/wa...
Unfortunately, that appears
Unfortunately, that appears to be all that GREED has to offer is opinions without foundations.
http://www.1776solution.b...
Sorry GREED, but here again
Sorry GREED, but here again you don't seem to understand what happens during deflation...prices deflate and dollars buy more goods and services during a deflationary event. You still seem very confused about just what happens during deflation. If fiat dollars buy more during a deflationary event then how would gold, a commodity subject to the same deflationary pressures be a hedge against deflation. If all commodities, the price of goods and services are deflating that only means that each dollar goes further. In an inflationary event just the opposite is true, the purchase value of the fiat dollar decreases therefore making the fiat price of gold and other commodities rise.
http://www.1776solution.b...
greed... here is the best
greed... here is the best reason to be bullish!
http://www.gold-eagle.com...
"When governments fear the people there is liberty. When the people fear the government there is tyranny."
-Thomas Jefferson
I am more concerned about the return of my money than the return on my money. --Mark Twain
Articles like this, by
Articles like this, by generally well informed The Economist, certainly does not instill much confidence in the dollar:
http://www.economist.com/...
The last paragraph is flat out scary!
Wrong Objective Leads to Wrong Decision
You should not purchase gold and silver with the idea of getting rich. Gold is a store of value, not an investment. At least I think you are better of looking at it that way.
Gold hit $1000 an oz when gas was at its peak. It has come down by 25% as gas and gasoline have come down by more than 1/2.
If we have runaway inflation, gold will go up roughly in inverse proportion to inflation.
It is not for speculators. It is for rainy days.
I agree with you very much. That's why I
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
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strongly believe that having enough dollars is extremely important before even consider buying gold. My opinion is that if you don't have any wealth to store, you can't store any wealth.
I'm waiting until it drops to $600.
That's the target projected for the next rally in gold by the Elliottwave.com team that Michael advertises here.
BTW, thanks to following their advice, my retirement account is UP about 30% YTD, while most other folks have seen theirs DROP at least that much. (For the curious, I'm invested in the Prudent Bear Fund, ticker symbol BEARX.)
So is EWI calling the rise
So is EWI calling the rise in gold from 11 SEPT 08 to 10 OCT 08 Wave B or Wave 2? I would assume they're calling it Wave B...and is this Hochberg's count or Precther's? You should be forwarned, EWI has lost probably just as much for their clients as they've made. Its most important to use good money management technics, ie. never hold a trade for more than a 5% lose. I've accomplished a faily consistant 7 out of 10 successful trades using Elliott, RSI, and Fibonacci together. But those 7 successes quickly get wiped out if you don't use good management with the other 3 losing trades.
Also important with Elliott analysis. NEVER pay attention to market fundamentals, its all built into the charts. Market news and fundamentals will drive you to make question you chart reading and ultimately to the wrong decision. That's one thing that I think happens at EWI, they seem to get too focused on their long term predictions, so much that it begins to influence their chart reading, instead of the chart reading influencing their long term outlook.
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"Ehhh, What's ups Doc?" Bugs Bunny
"Scwewy Wabbit!" Elmer Fudd
In Hochberg's latest short term update
on Wed. he counts it as (X) of A (circle), which means an opportunity to make money on a B (circle) rally up from their $600-650 target before the price drops even lower in wave C (circle). They were holding open the possibility of a further push upward immediately, but yesterday's decline pretty much sealed in their top count.
You're right about the need to be careful on the downside. I'd be a lot better off if I'd shifted more funds from BEARX to PSAFX during most of the looooooong rally these past few years! I did some shifting like that, which helped -- but I got lazy and stopped trying to switch at every major market turn.
I'm about to open up a Rydex account so we can have the options to leverage the bear market and countertrend rallies by shifting from fund to fund, as well as a better range of conservative hidey holes when you just have to wait and see how the waves are forming. That means I'll need to really watch closely from now on....
Oh ... one of the Rydex options I like is their regular and reverse index funds for the dollar. I'd like to ride wave (5) and then switch for the next A wave, etc.
You may be right. Who knows, Besides, I don't think
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
---
it's a good idea to buy all at once anyway.