What if the Dow Falls to 4000?

works they closed half the plant. He still has a job but don't know for how long. Our kids are adults which help me some but they are draft age which scares the beegeesus out of me.

I have a friend with young children and she developed an ulcer so be careful with your stress. She bought a canning pressure cooker and is learning to do canning. She is getting good at it. To help with the stress do POSITIVE things that make you feel your being prepared. It can be small things, paying down debt, make Christmas gifts instead of buying. I have bought a few books on survival reading them may help build confidence that whatever happens you can get through it as a family. When you think of the depression families came together to pool resources like living in one house. Think of it as an adventure or opportunity to learn new skills. My mom was very thrifty saving everything from bread bags to rubber bands and string. Remember your not in this alone and we all will be learning as we go along. Your children will look to you for reassurance that everything is going to be alright.

Our ancestors made it though tough times and we have an advantage because we have history on our side and are aware of what is happening.
Most people out there don't have a clue. Good luck to you and your family. Take it one day at a time and teach your children well. We will be better stronger and maybe one day be called "The Greatest Generation Part II.

I see,.....

And I dunno jack about the stock market...a bottom of around 3,000-3,500. I think this will happen sometime in Jan. '09 but who knows, I dunno anything and have no vested interest in the stock market

11/20/08 1548 eastern PPT not working?

escape the doom". Clearly anyone who comes to the Daily Paul knows that there are always an abundance of gloomy posts, so it's not a place we are flocking to as a refuge. I get tired of the fear-mongering threads also, and have learned to pick and choose which ones to read. However, truth is no less true just because it's depressing, and to ignore it would be foolish. Many topics which would be considered less than optimistic, are nevertheless very important.
If I had two small children and lots of debt, I would be nervous also. But the beautiful truth, libertyman23, is that you HAVE two small children. Don't let these uncertain times rob you of the joy they bring to you. Your family is what is real, the rest is a passing illusion.

to get DOW back above 8000, think they will get it above 8 at closing?
11/20/08
7,980.63 down -16.65 -0.21% 1409 eastern

From 1929-1932 the Dow declined 89%. Like today there were plenty of "experts" back then calling each leg down "the bottom". It took more than 20 years for the Dow to get back to where it was when the bear market began. Only invest money you can afford to lose. If the thought of the Dow below 1000 is too scary then it's better to keep your money in safe cash equivalents.

Libertyman23, don't pay too much attention to the average. Yes, the economy in the mid-90s was fine with the Dow trading lower. The average isn't THE most important thing.

Two things to consider, though:

1) In the mid-90s we were much more a production-oriented industrial economy which could partially export our way through a downturn while paying our workers fair wages. We now are a service-oriented economy focused on financial services, retail, and food service, all of which are getting hammered now and will continue to be. Most of the job creation since the dotcom bust has been in these sectors and construction, and yes, that employment did bubble and will now burst; add to that the fact that real wages have decreased since the 90s due to the shift to lower-paying service jobs and inflation, and we have problems for even those who will keep their employment. The net effect of mortgage debt, consumer debt, and lost jobs and benefits will only further strangle our service-oriented economy.

2) Where the DJIA does matter is in the amount of wealth that is lost as stocks fall. Sure, that wealth doesn't REALLY exist until it's cashed out, but consider the effect of the opportunity cost that 'lost' wealth represents - what has been lost in the markets since the end of last year, had it been wisely injected into the economy rather than lost through plummeting values of stocks, could certainly have curbed this crisis and perhaps even prevented it. Also, this lost wealth hurts most those whose retirement savings were eroded by the falling values of stocks, and this factor is one that will continue to harm both our economy and the average person for many years to come.

All of us who have lived beyond our means and have fed this bubble are partly at fault for the condition we're in, so don't waste too much time pointing fingers and assigning blame. Spend that time with your family - that will prove far more productive after this is all over.

I'm kinda in your shoes - I have no significant savings, a massive pile of student loan and credit card debt, and a baby on the way in March. The only advice I know to give is to live as frugally as you can (grow a garden; don't buy ANYTHING unless it's absolutely necessary; try to share living costs with friends or family, including moving back in with parents - we'll likely all need each other before this is over anyway) and get out of unsecured debt as quickly as possible.

Good luck brother.

"What country can preserve its liberties if its rulers are not
warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit
of resistance?" --Thomas Jefferson

I see 3000 as a bottom.

"You are a den of vipers. I intend to rout you out and by the Eternal God I will rout you out. If the people only understood the rank injustice of our money and banking system, there would be a revolution before morning." --Andrew Jackson,
1828

I'm expecting 6500 to be the bottom, but Uncle Sam will fight that all the way down. It may take awhile to get there.

Without the PPT to stop it, we'd already be in the 6000s, so there's no point in making predictions. To a large extent, it's a rigged game.

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at the CTRL ALT DELETE mode and the market will start from scratch there. I was actually thinking that at 5000 is the restart point. That should be enough to wash out bad debt and bad companies.

Being prepared is ultimately the best way to feel less panic / freaking out. Think about what you need for your family to survive and prepare for that. I'm not saying to prepare in a panicked fashion, just have a good plan and be prepared for any uncertainties.

If you are able, try to be as self-reliant as possible. Reason for this is that IF things were to get much worse then whoever you were counting on might not be able to help when the time comes.

Some suggest that you pay down your debt. Instead of doing that I recommend that you build a buffer of money which would enable you to pay your bills over the long term. I'd rather know I have enough money to pay my bills for at least 6 months or more than knowing I have zero debt but only enough money to cover bills for the next month. The longer the buffer the better, in my opinion (if you have a 2 year buffer, then maybe consider paying down debt).

Stretch your money as far as it will go. The better you do that the longer you can make your buffer.

for all the people jumping out of the buildings

It could potentially be a very bad winter/spring. Start a good food pantry and live out of it. Rotate your food stocks and resupply it whenever you can.

Yes, the market is dropping like a stone. If you're not involved in it, the effect won't be as critical as if you had all your money wrapped up in it. It is an indicator of the economy, though. The lower it goes, the worse things get. More layoffs, unemployment, homelessness..... you get the picture.

To deny that this is happening or to downplay it's significance would be wrong. To panic, quit your job and move to the mountains would be equally wrong. Life will still go on, even if we decline into a full depression. The key will be surviving.

Put up enough food for you and your family for the winter. In spring, you can grow your own veggies and such and see what the new world looks like under Obama.

Panic kills more people than anything else.

I may not know the truth, but I know when I'm being lied to...

If you don't then I'd recommend getting one or becoming an entrepeneur. Having a job or, even better, owning a business is the most important thing for everybody.

The DOW matters for the following reasons
-retirees won't have enough money to retire on (in 2010 tens of millions of baby boomers turn 65)
-Companies fire people because they aren't worth enough on paper
-Companies can't get inventory because their credit is shot

http://killfiat.blogspot.com/

I asked you to stop watching the TV....do you know who owns the stations you are watching?

You have been convinced that the daily Dow theatre is going to end your very existence. You have watched so much TV news that you have decided that the government is going to have to put an end to free markets because the free markets are going to put you on the street and starve you.

This is a freedom website. Murdoch and the rest of the nutcases have been instructed to scare you into accepting whatever they have for a next step to globalization.

It is how they operate. You have followed this site for months and have done zero research. Your idea of research is watching the TV and getting your butt scared off.

You are controlled by fear.

I have a job and two kids too and I tell the truth to everyone I meet including you which does not make a lot of sense since folks at this site are not supposed to be posting DESPAIR MESSAGES.

We come here to escape the DOOM ok?

This is about truth and who is doing the TV crap has been researched, debated, digested and puked out months ago.

Daily at the Daily Paul someone feels the need to tell me one of the following:

The chemtrails are going to destroy my lungs

The currency is going to collapse if I don't pull all the gold out of my mouth and sell it.

I am going to starve from a food shortage. I am 18 pounds over weight and so is everyone else I know....except for twiggy and she's old.

The zionists are going to kick in my front door and steal what I have left for food in the fridge after they take all the change out of the jar ion the kitchen to give to AIPAC.

The Chinese are going to stop buying treasury bonds and everything is going to collapse.

The arctic ice cap is going to melt so damn fast I'll need a kayak to get to work in the morning

Correction the last five years have indicated a beginning of global cooling. You thought warming sucked? You are going to be as cold as Sarah Jessica Parker's martini and it will be middle of August.

The bees are all going to die....every damn one of them...then we are all gonna die every damn one of us which just so happens to be true....eventually.

Oil is headed to $1000 a barrel by way of $35 a barrel.

We are going to run out of gas because it will be soooo cheap Shell won't make it anymore.

Where the hell is the $5 a gallon gas? I pay $1.89.

Bed Bath and Beyond has gone out of business! Help! A bunch of part time 7.85/hr workers are on the street and I can't find any 400 thread count sheets anywhere!

Some Home depot stores are going to close! Help! I'll have to buy my lawn mower at one off 11 other outlets in my community! My hardware choices are drying up like dead sea fruit! Hosts of shitt$# paying big box jobs are coming to a horrible end.

The killer bees are going to kill all of us! Oh sh$# they all died...the poor little bastards! They never had a chance...must have been the chemtrails.

Y2K is going to cause a global collapse all the ATM machines are gonna gaak, the bank will lose your accounts and airliners are gonna be dropping out of the sky...into your yard...hopefully they'll take out a couple of the zionists on the way down...wait a second! That was 7 years ago....phew! Dodged that bullet huh?

Ground beef will kill ya. I eat burgers on a regular basis and I guess that means I'm gonna die happy.

Hold on, martial law is right around the corner. Can you hear the boots in the street? Granted the ratio of law enforcement and military in the US to civilians is about 400 to one, but what the heck...all power to 'em. Oops! I forgot the majority of the military is overseas! Maybe Alex Jones can get them transferred back in time to impose a military dictatorship

One day it is Gold $5000 an ounce...the next it is gold $680 an ounce.

One day we are gonna starve and the next we all have diabetes from the 20% extra body weight.

One day real estate is gonna go to the moon because they aren't going to make it anymore and the next day you can have that three bedroom on the corner that you always dreamed of....for 40% off.

Flouride is gonna kill me but my teeth will be perfect....minus he gold ones.

The tomatoes i eat are picked by illegal immigrants and then irraddiated! AUGH! Double whammy!

Please stop with the world is going to end messages please! I don't care how much Gold costs. People pay me with little slips of paper and they seem to work wherever I go.

The people who control the economy and media are trying to scare you into agreeing to what they want....it is working....shut off the TV. There are sooo many people who are fabulously worse off than any of us. Pray for them.....God loves it when you do that stuff.

I saw a bee the other day....he's telling me this bee thing is kinda blown out of proportion...Stop and Shop in town had a sale on honey last week...do ya think?

Hey guys,

I seen this at contrarianprofits.com. Don't know too much about this guy (Bil Bonner) but he sees it going to 5000. So naturally I thought if it goes to 5000 it could possibly go to 4000.

We begin by pointing out the obvious. A bounce in a bear market does not give cause for celebration. It gives cause for selling.

Sell the rallies, buy the dips. Buy low, sell high, in other words.

We’re selling stocks, generally. And this bounce is a good occasion to do so… because we think this market could go a lot lower.

Dow 5,000 is our target.

When the Dow gets below 5,000 we might be tempted to buy. Until then, it’s sell… sell… sell.

Mr. Market is a decent chap, after all. He always gives you opportunities to get out… or get yourself in deeper.

After the market crashed in ’29 for example, prices gained 18.8% over the next two days. Investors should have hit Mr. Market’s bid. Instead, many were convinced that the bottom was in. They took advantage of an opportunity to buy shares at ‘bargain’ prices – only to see them cut in half… and cut in half again.

And then, they had to live with their mistake for a long, long time. Prices did not return to the ’29 high until the 1950s.

There was a rally after the crash of Black Monday in ’87, too. Stocks rose 16.6% over the next two days. This time, buying turned out to be only a short-term mistake; stocks rose for the next 12 years.

The bunkum behind this bounce is that the pyromaniacs who caused this conflagration… and then fanned the flames… are now going to put it out. We recall, for provocation, that Goldman Sachs was a leader in developing mortgage backed securities and swaps – the dry tinder that set off this blaze.

It's already at the level of 4000 in 1995 dollars, or close to it. By the government's CPI figures, 1995's 4000 would be 5684 today.

The econony would probably look pretty good to somoe and bad for others. I'd love to see housing and gas and food and everything at 1985 levels, but this one's not natural. This one's engineered. and the govt is going to "fix" it. Those kind get ugly.

I just can't see that happening, but I suppose anything is possible in this current climate. What have you seen that indicates to you that 4000 is coming?

Stop freaking out. That never helps. First and foremost. Pay down your debt AND buy Silver. Take a specific amount each month, above and beyond your bill money, so take it from your "jerk-around" money (we all have jerk-around money, regardless of our income) to set aside for this purpose. However much it is, do it consistently. Baby-steps.

In Christ,
Dave

"where the Spirit of the LORD is, there is liberty." 2 Cor. 3:17

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my hopes would be that Gold rides up to meet it, and silver is not far behind..........