Peter Schiff Rebuttal- A Response to My Critics
Submitted by captcorona on Fri, 01/30/2009 - 15:42
My popularity on television and the internet has led a very small money manager to use his popular financial blog to promote his fledgling business by attacking the recent poor performance of my long-term investment strategy. The post is causing quite a stir and compels me to provide some badly needed context.
Watch for New Bills
That will signal printing money, instead of or in addition to monetizing debt through the sale of IOUs. Bills in your wallet are old. They needed a new Treasury Secy. to start printing. When they do, it will signal inflation. IMHO.
Sheldon Waxman
sheldonw72@gmail.com
www.thelawyer.info
www.independentcontractor.info
Sheldon Waxman
sheldonw72@gmail.com
www.independentcontractor.info
What is the likelihood
that some of the complainers are Dodd's handymen? He will be facing a real challenge from Schiff. Try to break his back now.
I'm doing better
since I moved my money over to Euro Pacific. My Fidelity accounts were down about 40% so I moved everything in October to EPC and I am now up 12-14% and getting decent dividends. I think (and hope) I did the right thing.
Investment advice is like your doctor's advice...
It's up to you to follow it. Just because his client's account is down, doesn't necessarily mean it's because they followed his advice. I don't do everything my doctor tells me to do. And I don't do everything my investment advisor tells me to do. Ultimately, I am responsible, and it's up to me to make the decision. If I take someone's advice, and it is wrong, that is my fault, not theirs. No one is perfect, and no one knows everything. I'm sure neither one of them tell their clients that they absolutely have to invest a certain way-that is illegal, and they would be shut down quickly if it happened. To me this is just a pissing contest. I do tend to agree with Peter over the long run. As stated in other comments, his timing may be off, but more often than not, he has been correct.
Nope, sorry. There's just too much common sense there...
...and responsibility? What's that? Nope, this kinda thinking simply ain't gonna fly, because it's already WAY too far over most peoples' heads... :-)
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/liberty_outlook/
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"Let them protest all they want, as long as they pay their taxes.” ...credited to Al Haig, Ronald Reagan's Secretary of State.
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/liberty_outlook/
http://www.dailypaul.com/blog/11
Ron Paul = Red Pill
Math Question
If I bought gold 20 years ago at 800, then it went down to 200, and then to 800 in 2009, how much money did I make?
Gee I don't know but I would like to hear your answer!
?
zero. That's what Peter
zero. That's what Peter Schiff has done. He has been positioned for 2010 since 1982. Just trying to make a point.
"value" of gold
More often than not, a purchase of gold is more intended to preserve wealth instead of create it. If gold spikes up to 2000 dollars an ounce, I would argue that you haven't really increased your wealth..... You just maintained it. If you watch gold go to 2000 an ounce and beyond while you maintain a position in fiat denominated assets, you're actively watching your wealth being inflated away.
You could make a case for the value of gold going up *before* prices are raised due to inflation, in which case if you sell your gold and make purchases before prices go up then you have increased your wealth.
oops!
I didn't see you had all ready answered, my mistake. I think your answer is incorrect though.
PETER VS MISH
OPINIONS ARE LIKE A--H---S ,EVERYBODY HAS ONE.
SO FOLLOW PETER'S ADVICE AND IN TIME YOUR ASSETS WILL STILL HAVE VALUE OR JUMP INTO THE ABYSS WITH ALL THE OTHER "ITS TIME TO BUY" US STOCKS TOUTS THAT ARE OUT THERE AND LOOK SURPRISED WHEN YOUR ASSET VALUES HAVE GONE TO MONEY HEAVEN.
THE PURPOSE OF THIS WEB SITE WAS TO ENLIGHTEN PEOPLE TO THE BASTARDS THAT RUN AND SUPPORT THE FED. PETER SAYS GET OUT OF US DOLLARS WHICH ARE THE LIFE BLOOD OF THE FED . SO IF HE MISSES HIS MARK BY ANY AMOUNT OF TIME AT LEAST WE ARE NOT IN US DOLLARS THAT SUPPORT THIS CORRUPTED GOVERNMENT.WE WILL COME BACK TO US CURRENCY WHEN ALL LIARS AND THEIR TOUTS AND THE FED ARE DEAD!!! END THE FED
DAN
Dan
why don't you check out the DP posting guidelines ...about posting in CAPS ...
AND QUIT YELLING ! !
I would never buy stocks
I would never buy stocks right now. No way. You obviously don't understand the point I'm trying to make. If you are going to enlighten people, they would appreciate the truth. Peter does not deny being down 40% this year. there will indeed be a time to hold gold, that may be now...it was not 2008. Mish pulled a publicity stunt and it worked. He is spreading our message and has a sucessful portfolio to back it up.
you actually lost purchasing
you actually lost purchasing power due to inflation.
Nothing...
You haven't sold it yet!
Interesting question, over my head, look forward to somebody's good answer...
--------
Fossils Rock!
We don't know how to mind our own business
'Cause the whole worlds got to be just like us
Now we are fighting a war over there
No matter who's the winner
We can't pay the cost
'Cause there's a monster on the loose
I told you!
The last post against him was garbage
his accounts are not down that far
I put my stuff in the high risk stuff and I'm only down 30 - 35% and at the worst was down 40%. Maybe some are down 50-70%, but not everyone is.
I agree that the market is the market and it's about one's choice. We give the market value and we as a group decide where there's going to be value. It's not easy for anyone to predict the future and the trends. It's all a big fat guess when it comes down to it. Schiff or Mish have no idea how the masses are going to move and what outside factors are going to effect the market. There's so much manipulation, corruption, lies, propaganda in this economy and what drives it is total BS.
I agree that ultimately these guys are out there scrambling to bring people into their camp. It's all sales and I'm going to invest with the guy that I like - Peter Schiff. Though he's trying to make the best of it, at least he admits that this is a phony economy.
Mish and Schiff share one thing:
They both like Ron Paul very much. So maybe they can have a debate online or on the air with Ron as mediator. I would like watching that. The point is that although they're fighting each other, they also agree on many issues.
PS is a good debater
It would be good to get the small frys out of the picture and let two heavyweights go at it. Maybe we could get that Cody kid to put it on.
"It's just one big club... and WE ain't in it!"
"Tyrants fear nothing more than insubordination"
"It's just one big club... and WE ain't in it!"
Quick view on Inflation/Deflation/Money supply debate.
Sorry, but I don't have time to stay because I have to travel soon and won't be able to respond to any comments right now.
That said, I would like to address this inflation/deflation debate. This debate needs some boundaries due to the nature of the terms in this debate. I think in order to make sense we must use them in a MACRO sense.
Therefore my definition of these terms are as follows:
Inflation equals an increase in the money supply.
Deflation equals a decrease in the money supply.
Money supply equals the myriad of financial instruments including but not limited to the following items: US Govt Debt Securities(short term bills 30day-90day-1yr, medium term notes 2-5-10yr, long term bonds 20-30yr), Corporate Debt, Credit, Cash, Gold, Silver.
The US Govt. monetizes Debt, that means they take debt and turn it into money via the Banking system, by extending credit, loans, ect to Corporations and consumers. With this in mind I see nothing but inflation in the system.
Remember these are Macro economic forces. Please don't get bogged down in increasing/decreasing prices in different sectors of the economy or this explanation will not serve you well.
I think an individual would be hard pressed to refute that we have had an enormously inflationary surge in the money supply as described above. In other words I do not see any deflation in the money supply, look at all the bailouts and stimulus packages(huge increase in money supply).
I see hyper-inflation with slow to no growth, and that looks to me like Stag-flation. I have got to get moving, have a good day.
look at the supply, measure
look at the supply, measure the supply, talk about the supply, figure out if the supply is shrinking or growing.
it's all very interesting.
i prefer to look at both factors, supply
and demand.
and maybe I mis-use the word "deflation", because technically, people like you want to keep referring to the supply of money.
but the demand for money is high right now. and people are holding their FRNs. the demand for goods and services is low.
So call it whatever little word that makes your cognitive dissonance go away.
So the money supply is inflating.
So what. So is our country experience "inflation" or "deflation"? I let you play the definition game.
You are obviously hung up on words. fine. words have meaning, and I can respect that.
So let me put it in a non-academic way: Nobody is spending. The few dollars that ARE being spent, go a lot further.
Our money supply is inflating, but our economy is deflating, and the velocity of money is slowing.
People seem to get all mixed up with measuring tools and labels.
"Inflation equals an
"Inflation equals an increase in the money (AND CREDIT) supply."
There are many money supplies, all the way from minted coin to who knows what. The one's that are unquestionably growing at behest of the Bed, are the base one's. But as of current, the wider one's, which are much larger, and over which the Fed has much less control, are not growing particularly fast, if at all.
As they are an order of magnitude larger than base Fed money, even tripling base money has failed to prevent wider money from declining. Hence deflation. Of course, there's a limit. If the Fed is committed enough, they can overcome any deflation, but likely only at the cost of destroying the market for US sovereign debt, and with it possibly the viability of the federal government.
Were I not such a hopeless bleeding heart, all concerned about all those who would likely get wiped out for lack of preparing for such an event and all; given the current state of the federal government; I'd almost be tempted to say, bring it on!
You forget about all the
You forget about all the wealth going *poof* as fast as they can print it. they are cancelling each other out for now.
This thread serves only to divide and harm
Both are human, BOTH make mistakes. They are simply in competition with one another; it's too bad they can't coexist better but that is the nature of capitalism and the free market. I will continue to like both of these guys--you do not have to choose between one or the other.
Mish's comment on his blog:
"The WSJ did not present all the facts it had. That is all I have to say. There are a lot of things I know were told to the WSJ such as him encouraging people to borrow against their homes to invest in Europac.
Imagine expecting home prices to decline and suggesting people borrow against their houses.
What motivated me was I was sick of the hype. No more no less. He did not do as he said "invest his clients accordingly".
When you run a non-stop publicity campaign bragging you were right, when you weren't I consider than misleading at best. At best.
Had he not been bragging every week about being right, I could care less about what he did or said. And lots of people I highly respect, congratulated me for what I did.
If he wants to sue me like he threatened, he will get destroyed in court. And many many details will come out that you cannot believe.
I will leave it at that.
Mish"
"There can be only one permanent revolution - a moral one: The regeneration of the inner man."
—Tolstoy
Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other. — John Adams
There can be only one permanent revolution - a moral one: The regeneration of the inner man. — Tolstoy
well, I've seen Schiff say a
well, I've seen Schiff say a number of times in a heated debate on TV and his radio program to borrow as much as you can against your mortgage, and spend it on gold or choice stocks.......cause the government is bailing everyone out.
I suppose that I was the only person to hear sarcasm in his voice.
Some people are really thick.
That's the problem with this country, it's too stupid to live.
Someone comes along and gives you the big picture, but only 15% of the country can comprehend the message.
oh well.
This debate is good..
I don't think Schiff is wrong, but he isn't exactly right on everything either. What I do appreciate about Schiff's argument is that he clarifies some of the claims against him- e.g. dollar going to zero is the prime one that always made me feel like he is out in right field.
Schiff explains that's not what he said.
I now feel that Schiff's claims are still in the ballpark and hold merit.
I see debate between these two a great thing and will further help us all to understand the complexities of the system as a whole.
Just my $.02
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“It does not require a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority keen to set brush fires in people's minds” - Sam Adams
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Peace, Freedom and Prosperity. Not War, Welfare and Bankruptcy.
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Schiff was big picture. He
Schiff was big picture. He knows he can't get the timing and correctness on the local changes right. So he doesn't try.
That doesn't mean I don't appreciate Mish. I enjoy reading about his conclusions and predictions on the market. He goes into some timing and detail. It gives me some insight into what and how a smart person looks at when they're looking into the fiscal crystal ball.
But big picture, the idea that this country produces very little, and consumes much, that are currency is basically a mass figment of our imagination, and that we've duped the world....it's all true. Schiff is preaching it. The disasterous consequences might come tomorrow, or they might come 30 years from now. They might come in one sharp slap to the face, or it might come like the frog in the pot syndrome......slow and steady.
We'll probably see several more bubbles, like the 2002 to 2007 event, over the course of the next 30 years. We'll see more deflationary corrections.
Whoever things they are going to time them all...is a damn fool. Provide something tangible, and own something tangible. Know the truth.
Mish isn't big picture. But he's a smart guy and I'll read his stuff.
This site just came to my attention on Myspace
groups. myspace. com/peterschiff
"I don't want to be in a battle . . . but
waiting on the edge of one I can't escape
is even worse"
"Welcome to Mirkwood! Where the old toby is always fresh. The spirits come in pints and there is always shade to be found amongst the trees."
As a woman, I am giggling at
As a woman, I am giggling at this cat fight. rrrrrrr! Bottom line is Peter predicted inflation, Mish predicted deflation. Mish was right. The only thing to make money last year was long term government bonds - Mish called that one! Mish fought the bailout. Mish want's to End the Fed. This is just about egos and I find it humorous. I think they should continue fighting and get publicity for everyone.
hmmm, not sure what you
hmmm, not sure what you being a woman has to do with anything. I giggle too. Just not in front of many people. ;-) But I have to disagree with your over simplistic "this one said blue, the other said orange"
I've used both men's opinions and views to formulate my own thoughts on the situation.
If Mish wants to impress me, as being superior to Schiff, then he needs to tell me when this deflationary period will be over.
It's not enough to say "it's orange", or "it's blue".....you have to outline the time periods.
Inflation is coming. There. I'm a genius. You see I just predicted inflation is coming. Right?
Well it is?
But how hard is that? With us being in the middle of heavy deflationary cycle, anyone should be able to see that "nothing is forever", and that some day the cycle will be in the reverse trend.
The real trick is if Mish predicts how long his "predicted deflationary trend" lasts.
Without that info, he's just trying to time the market with his gut. And people lose that game all day, every day. Schiff doesn't even play that game. He's not going to give you a month by month road map of what the market will do!!! Anyone who says they can is a liar.
Schiff is big picture, he educates people as to the big picture and he introduces people to some very simple concepts, like: we need to produce something tangible, and we need to own something tangible.
I work with my hands, and provide goods and services. And a respectable part of my stored labor is stored in silver and gold.
Schiff said he started out earlier this decade by buying mining stocks, then realized that it wasn't safe, and then bought actual bullion.
He's informing people as to the big picture. Anyone who professes to know the timing and direction of the minutia and details...they may get it right a few times, but they'll eventually be wrong. That's why Schiff says "long term".
e
OK, the way I judge success
OK, the way I judge success is I look at my performance report and see how much money I've made. What is your return on gold this year? I made 40% return on 10 year treasuries. Which was the better investment? period.
Why does he have to tell you when deflation will end? To make money these days you have to have a Trader mentality because buy and hold is dead. That is why, if you are going to buy equities, you find a manager who can hedge. I happen to be all in cash, and in deflation, cash is good. I am not going to run for the hills yet. What if we go sideways for 10 years like Japan? You judge money managers in hindsight. If hindsight is 20/20, Mish kicked Peter's ass. Deal with it.
Yes, but Gold is up 336% in 10 Years.....
Um Gold is up 336% in the last 10 years from December 1998 to December 2008. There is not a snowballs chance in H--- than any 10 year treasury will come close to matching that performance, most especially now.
Mr. Schiff has been advising gold for over 10 years so those who have been following him prior to the "Collapse '08" are quite satisfied with his advice.
Secondly, Mr. Celente President of the Trends Research Institute is also calling for the Dollar collapse and his organization has not missed a forecast in 20 years.
Anyone who thinks that paper fiat currency is a safe place to invest, by all means keep believing in that fallacy.
In the end, Gold has been a store for currency for over 6,000 years, whereas FED Fiat Notes have yet to break 100 years as legal currency, and it appears their "run" at monopoly money is just about over.
Alli
http://SmArgus.com
"None are so hopelessly enslaved as those who falsely believe they are free." - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Allison Bricker
http://SmArgus.com
"None are so hopelessly enslaved as those who falsely believe they are free." - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Peter has been pushing gold
Peter has been pushing gold since 1982 when it went from 800 to 200. Soooooo, If you bought when he did at 800, it took you over 20 years to GET BACK TO ZERO!!!!!!!!!!! He was down 40% this year because he was betting on Asia and decoupling. So, even a stopped clock is right twice a day. This year, Peter Schiff was wrong. I love Peter Schiff, but how many times can I say it, this year he was down 40%. geez.
ouch.
ouch.
touche....
touche....
Mish is Deliberately Misleading
To take one client who lost 60% and insinuate that it is indicative of Europac's client base is downright misleading. I mean how many clients got in just before the commodity bust and the dollar rally? Europac has been buying gold when it was less than $300 an ounce. Surely there are many who are doing well.
People give Mish all this credence because he liked Ron Paul. Who gives a crap. I have yet to find an article or blog entry that showed Mish had enough foresight to predict the current economic collapse with the same clarity as Peter did. If somebody knows of one please provide a link. I am asking in earnest see I much weight to put on his advice.
I Have a question. Is there
I Have a question.
Is there a way to prepare for inflation and deflation at the same time?
If you think there will be inflation, you would want to spend your dollars on things like gold, silver, food, and maybe property because you expect prices to increase, right? but it seems like you would do the exact opposite if you think there will be deflation, because you would expect prices to decrease, right?
Rand's March 23 Moneybomb. Pledge! www.winrandwin.com
Precious Metals is....
...the only thing these two have in common (Schiff/MiSh) . That should speak volumes. Cash is great in deflation but bad during inflation. Metals are the hedge against both. You have to understand, it's a protection of buying power. Gold may go down in dollars during deflation, but still buys as much gas, milk, etc. as all of these prices will fall during true deflation. BTW..Inflation and Deflation are monetary events...The evidence shows that the monetary base has never stopped growing, thus deflation is impossible. Falling prices can be a sign of deflation, but does not mean deflation by itself.
It's interesting to look at
It's interesting to look at the price of gold vs. the Dow.
- If the Dow is down and gold is stable, it's the equities that have dropped in value.
- If the Dow is down and gold is UP, you've got stagflation: Money is inflating but the equities are falling even faster.
- If the Dow and gold are both down, the money is deflating.
All this is by the "buying power" definition of inflation/deflation. For instance: The basic supply might still be increasing but people are hanging on to it tighter - maybe lowering the velocity, maybe contracts requiring it are coming due, maybe they're just giving it higher subjective value, ...
= = = =
"Wunnerful, Wunnerful! Turn off the bubble machine!"
-Lawrence Welk (as satirized by Stan Freeberg.)
Having liquid cash and some
Having liquid cash and some precious metals can help with both. If you have a year or 2 of essentials stored (toiletries, canned goods, etc) It's all a good hedge.
Is Schiff allowed to hand out performance averages?
People want some facts here. Although Schiff can't hand out individual private results of his customers, couldn't he just throw out some averages? Such as "Clients who have been with me 1 year have had an X% return. Clients who have been with me 5 years have had an Y% return. Clients who have been with me 10 years have had a Z% return."
That would put this issue of his performance to rest.
Register as Republican and Vote for Ron Paul
Behind the scenes
The original article by Shedlock was a rather thinly veiled attempt to boost his own client base at the expense of Peter's. While this is completely legal and fair in the business world, from a moral sense its a pretty dirty way to add more clients to your roster.
He could have just talked about how correct his predictions were for this year and how much a prospective client could have made by following his advice. Instead of stopping there, he chose to take a stab at a very popular economist. In order to do so, he made controversial assumptions and looked at a very small snapshot in time. Thats pretty crappy if you ask me.
It must have worked for Shedlock though, otherwise Peter wouldn't be responding. It got Shedlock exactly what he wanted, which is more attention, and probably more clients. Congratulations to him, but he should probably do some volunteer work to offset the bad karma generated from his little stunt.
That's the market for you.
In the market of today, there is only one measurement: Money.
All is fair in the free market, as long as it is legal. Since you cannot put a monetary price on morality, it will not be represented in the market.
Karma might be a good regulator on behavior, but it also cannot by priced by money, so it won't be represented in the free market, either.
Since everyone is represented in the market, people are competing against amoral people as well. And under this system, those who are amoral tend to benefit the most. Corporations are amoral, and I can't think of a single corporation that I would place my trust in.
Humans are multifaceted creatures, and yet everything is reduced to a single metric by the market.
Understand, however, that this is not a free market, in the true sense of the word, because what everyone is chasing after is Federal Reserve Notes. The value of these notes are controlled and manipulated, and do not represent value of any kind in the true sense of the word.
Please become a fan: www.facebook.com/dailypaul
I disagree
Why can't one put a value on morality? I do. For ex. I won't buy certain products or support certain businesses because I'm opposed morally/ethically to them on some level.
Its the people, not the market
The market is what we as the people make it. Morality has no monetary value only if the market determines it has no value. That means that the decisions we make every day determine how moral or amoral the market is. Its pretty evident that we have become a very amoral culture, considering the market as you aptly put it places absolutely no value on morality at all.
What gets me is Mish was
~
What gets me is Mish was a huge Ron Paul fan,
as evidenced below..
http://tinyurl.com/cbgujc
but then he turned to the dark side,
getting all gooey over Obama...
Obama: The Next President Of The United States
http://tinyurl.com/2ax7v9
****
Peter has always brought up Ron Paul's name as often
as possible and has never waivered in his support.
He doesn't support Obama!
Check out his recent podcast with Lew Rockwell.
How many times does Peter have to say it?!
HE'S NOT IN THE BUSINESS OF GIVING SHORT TERM INVESTMENT ADVICE!!!!!!!
People are simply unwilling to look past tomorrow.
http://federalfallacy.com
http://federalfallacy.com
However
No matter whether you're advice is "short term" or "long term," down 70% is simply unacceptable. There has to be a strategy to limit losses.
Please become a fan: www.facebook.com/dailypaul
OK
But we're talking about one account here, one verifiable account, that is down that much. To say that all Schiff's clients are in a similar position is simply heresay.
http://federalfallacy.com
http://federalfallacy.com