Financials: Forecast? More Bull? More Bear?

But only in my mind. It just doesn't look good at all for microbusinesses.

Dead cat bounce.

My reasoning:

1) The federal debt now exceeds $10 trillion.
Adding unfunded Medicaid, Social Security, Medicare, veteran's pensions, and similar obligations,
the total is $59 trillion, or $516,000 per household (http://en.wikipedia.org/w...).

2) The USG will continue to spend on wars, empire, "stimulus packages", "new deals",
and industry bailouts without limit (thus adding even MORE to the debt).

3) As our foreign creditors come to realize that such a debt can never be paid, they will cease lending to the U.S.:
http://www.speroforum.com...,
http://www.atimes.com/ati...
http://www.washingtonpost...

4) Unable to obtain funds by any other means, the USG will drastically increase the money
supply to finance it's debts and spending (thus triggering hyperinflation).

5) Imports are greatly curtailed, as few are willing to accept payment in a teetering currency which loses value daily.

6) The people will rush to purchase real assets before the dollar is rendered completely worthless,
first emptying/closing the banks, and then the stores.

7) Without access to banks, most businesses will be unable to make payroll and be forced to close
(including food distributors and trucking companies).

8) Food distribution will break down.
The people will seek food from local sources, but will find that very few such sources still exist today.
This will lead to a massive disaster far worse than the last Great Depression:

In the 1930's, there were family farms everywhere (many of which were near self-sufficiency).
Today, the few farms that do exist are extremely dependent on technology and supplies from outside sources.
If a critical part breaks that can no longer be replaced (see below), or fuel and/or grain supplies are disrupted, the
farm shuts down.

In the 1930's, technology was relatively simple.
Most machines were composed of basic parts of limited number (the great majority of which were manufactured in the US).
Today's machines are very complex and are composed of a huge number of parts from all over the world.
Thus, the failure of one part manufacturer (or the cutoff of their imports) can easily trigger the failure of all who depend on that part
(example: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi...).
And this problem extends to power plants (which is why I stress the importance of a water filter).

In the 1930's, the US population was around 125 million.
Today, it is 300 million.
So even if we all knew how to live off the land, it is questionable as to whether the land could
sustain so many without the super-efficiency of today's modern/highly-technological farms.

In the 1930's, we had a strong manufacturing base (and thus were not dependent on imports for our very survival).
Today, we make virtually nothing (and have largely forgotten how to do so).
Hence, it will be extremely difficult to "boot-strap" our way back to prosperity.

In the 1930's, people possessed incredible know-how:
They knew how to build and repair things.
They knew how to farm.
They knew how to hunt and dress game.
They knew how to preserve food.
How many of us posses such skills today ?

In the 1930's, we were generally a moral people.
Few resorted to violence or theft to get food.
How will today's Americans (many of whom feel "entitled" to everything) will respond when hungry ?

From May 14-17, the global elite met in secret in Greece for the yearly Bilderberg conference, amid scattered and limited global media attention. Roughly 130 of the world’s most powerful individuals came together to discuss the pressing issues of today, and to chart a course for the next year. The main topic of discussion at this years meeting was the global financial crisis, which is no surprise, considering the list of conference attendees includes many of the primary architects of the crisis, as well as those poised to “solve” it.

The Agenda: The Restructuring of the Global Political Economy

http://www.globalresearch...

we are screwed.

This is the end of the rally and you are seeing distribution into the top.

Expect the week to finish down with possibly another next week followed by a retracement surge to happen back to about this range before a capitulation into the summer lows...and what maybe new lows.

...or the week will finish up with dropping volume as it tests its highs and allows for distribution in this manner...either way, I think that they are distributing and my guess is...we are about to see much lower prices...

I am more a day trader so it doesn't matter when, or where, or how it will happen, just that it will happen ultimately on much smaller moves that I will hopefully act like Laird Hamilton on...

**“The man who does not read good books has no advantage over the man who cannot read them.” ~ Mark Twain **

I think we may be in the eye of the storm at the moment. The rally of the last month is a pretty classic bear market rally and I don't see that there are fundamentals of real substance to drive a new bull market. However, the markets are so manipulated that I'm not sure we can depend on Dow Theory to be as accurate as it once was. My guess is that the DOW could continue to rally to the low 9000's then have a violent retest of the lows, perhaps breaking through. That's a guess based on the information I've gleaned from charts and the financial newsletters I subscribe to. But, I reiterate, it is a guess.
A good overall source of information can be found at www.financialsense.com .
They post a wide variety of opinions, and the writers come from all sides of the financial spectrum; some bullish, some bearish, some gold bugs, some chart enthusiasts.....which helps in getting a well-rounded picture.

...Nothing has changed except the banks have been able to clear some bad debt off their books. The housing market and employment rates will determine the turn-around. All the time the markets are skewed by government intervention, expect wild swings - but overall I can see the S&P testing the 650 level and the Dow testing 5500.

Wealth cannot be created from credit

100%return on your money in only a few months is a lot. LISTED BELOW

Those that LOBBIED for TARP money recieved "thousands of PERCENT " return on the money spent lobbing congress and some recieved over a MILLION PERCENT return.

ABOUT THE CENTER FOR RESPONSIVE POLITICS
The Center for Responsive Politics is the nation's premier research group tracking money in U.S. politics and its effect on elections and public policy. For 25 years the nonpartisan, nonprofit Center has aimed to create a more educated voter, an involved citizenry and a more responsive government. CRP's award-winning website,

OpenSecrets.org, is the most comprehensive resource for campaign contributions, lobbying data and analysis available anywhere. For other organizations and news media, CRP's exclusive data powers their online features tracking money in politics. CRP relies on support from a combination of foundation grants and individual contributions. The Center accepts no contributions from businesses, labor unions or trade associations.

Return on Investment
Total campaign contributions and lobbying by TARP recipients*

Company Campaign Contributions, 07-08 Cycle Lobbying Expenditures, 2008 TARP Payment Return on Investment
Bank of America Corp** $5,752,630 $8,790,000 $45,000,000,000 309335%

Citigroup Inc. $4,799,678 $7,660,000 $50,000,000,000 401194%
AIG $929,774 $9,690,000 $40,000,000,000 376556%

JPMorgan Chase & Co. $4,778,638 $5,390,000 $25,000,000,000 245754%

Wells Fargo & Company $1,553,471 $1,200,740 $25,000,000,000 907601%

General Motors Corporation $916,142 $14,071,000 $10,400,000,000 69293%

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. $5,690,351 $3,280,000 $10,000,000,000 111378%

Morgan Stanley $3,689,027 $3,120,000 $10,000,000,000 146764%
The PNC Financial Services Group Inc. $68,525 $0 $7,579,200,000 11060389%

U.S. Bancorp $496,461 $570,000 $6,599,000,000 618676%

Chrysler Holding LLC and Cerberus Capital Management $1,075,350 $7,927,782 $5,500,000,000 60990%

GMAC LLC $72,207 $4,620,000 $5,000,000,000 106460%

SunTrust Banks, Inc. $175,903 $0 $4,850,000,000 2757101%
Capital One Financial Corporation $700,161 $1,132,000 $3,555,199,000 193944%
Regions Financial Corp. $161,775 $180,000 $3,500,000,000 1023966%
Fifth Third Bancorp $149,550 $80,000 $3,408,000,000 1484544%
American Express Company $1,028,038 $3,790,000 $3,389,000,000 70240%
BB&T Corp. $262,737 $0 $3,133,640,000 1192591%
Bank of New York Mellon Corporation $886,701 $558,402 $3,000,000,000 207498%
KeyCorp $159,280 $210,000 $2,500,000,000 676893%
CIT Group Inc. $23,200 $90,000 $2,330,000,000 2058204%
Comerica Inc. $210,538 $0 $2,250,000,000 1068591%
State Street Corporation $152,627 $980,000 $2,000,000,000 176481%
Marshall & Ilsley Corporation $57,400 $0 $1,715,000,000 2987705%
Northern Trust Corporation $240,892 $0 $1,576,000,000 654135%
Zions Bancorporation $117,159 $60,000 $1,400,000,000 790151%
Huntington Bancshares $188,700 $232,971 $1,398,071,000 331455%
Synovus Financial Corp. $10,150 $0 $967,870,000 9535565%
Popular, Inc. $12,700 $390,000 $935,000,000 232083%
First Horizon National Corporation $30,050 $0 $866,540,000 2883561%
M&T Bank Corporation $3,500 $10,000 $600,000,000 4444344%
City National Corporation $262,965 $0 $400,000,000 152011%
Webster Financial Corporation $14,850 $0 $400,000,000 2693503%
First Bancorp $4,900 $0 $400,000,000 8163165%
Fulton Financial Corporation $5,700 $0 $376,500,000 6605163%
TCF Financial Corporation $103,300 $0 $361,172,000 349534%
South Financial Group, Inc. $29,100 $0 $347,000,000 1192340%
Wilmington Trust Corporation $59,850 $0 $330,000,000 551278%
East West Bancorp $4,800 $0 $306,546,000 6386275%
Sterling Financial Corporation $5,750 $0 $303,000,000 5269465%
Whitney Holding Corporation $27,950 $0 $300,000,000 1073245%
Susquehanna Bancshares, Inc $6,850 $0 $300,000,000 4379462%
Valley National Bancorp $950 $0 $300,000,000 31578847%
UCBH Holdings, Inc. $42,750 $0 $298,737,000 698700%
New York Private Bank & Trust Corporation $6,350 $0 $267,000,000 4204624%
Cathay General Bancorp $2,500 $0 $258,000,000 10319900%
Wintrust Financial Corporation $4,401 $0 $250,000,000 5680427%
SVB Financial Group $18,300 $0 $235,000,000 1284053%
International Bancshares Corporation $116,100 $0 $216,000,000 185947%
Trustmark Corporation $6,500 $0 $215,000,000 3307592%
Umpqua Holdings Corp. $650 $0 $214,181,000 32950823%
MB Financial Inc. $15,150 $0 $196,000,000 1293629%
First Midwest Bancorp, Inc. $1,750 $0 $193,000,000 11028471%
Pacific Capital Bancorp $500 $480,000 $180,634,000 37493%
United Community Banks, Inc. $12,250 $0 $180,000,000 1469288%
Boston Private Financial Holdings, Inc. $6,400 $0 $154,000,000 2406150%
Independent Bank Corp. $2,250 $0 $150,000,000 6666567%
National Penn Bancshares, Inc. $1,500 $0 $150,000,000 9999900%
Dickinson Financial Corporation $94,050 $0 $146,000,000 155137%
Central Pacific Financial Corp. $19,750 $0 $135,000,000 683444%
Sterling Bancshares, Inc. $9,150 $0 $125,198,000 1368184%
FirstMerit Corp. $4,500 $0 $125,000,000 2777678%
Banner Corporation $6,140 $0 $124,000,000 2019444%
Signature Bank $7,875 $0 $120,000,000 1523710%
1st Source Corporation $450 $0 $111,000,000 24666567%
S&T Bancorp $3,200 $0 $109,000,000 3406150%
Park National Corporation $10,500 $0 $100,000,000 952281%
Old National Bancorp $8,250 $0 $100,000,000 1212021%
F.N.B. Corporation $1,000 $0 $100,000,000 9999900%
Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. $29,850 $0 $95,000,000 318158%
Iberiabank Corporation $2,000 $0 $90,000,000 4499900%
Plains Capital Corporation $59,650 $0 $87,631,000 146809%
Midwest Banc Holdings, Inc. $2,800 $0 $84,784,000 3027900%
Sandy Spring Bancorp, Inc. $250 $0 $83,094,000 33237500%
Columbia Banking System, Inc. $2,500 $0 $76,898,000 3075820%
TowneBank $4,750 $0 $76,458,000 1609542%
Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. $18,150 $0 $75,000,000 413123%
Bank of the Ozarks, Inc. $11,150 $0 $75,000,000 672546%
Wesbanco Bank Inc. $208 $0 $75,000,000 36057592%
Green Bankshares, Inc. $1,200 $0 $72,278,000 6023067%
Virginia Commerce Bancorp $8,850 $0 $71,000,000 802160%
Southwest Bancorp, Inc. $50,650 $0 $70,000,000 138103%
Flushing Financial Corporation $2,300 $0 $70,000,000 3043378%
Superior Bancorp Inc. $250 $0 $69,000,000 27599900%
Nara Bancorp, Inc. $2,000 $0 $67,000,000 3349900%
First Bancorp $2,650 $0 $65,000,000 2452730%
SCBT Financial Corporation $250 $0 $65,000,000 25999900%
CoBiz Financial Inc. $1,000 $0 $64,450,000 6444900%
Union Bankshares Corporation $1,000 $0 $59,000,000 5899900%
Liberty Bancshares, Inc. $20,900 $0 $58,000,000 277412%
Great Southern Bancorp $2,500 $0 $58,000,000 2319900%
WSFS Financial Corporation $21,550 $0 $53,000,000 245840%
Ameris Bancorp $1,000 $0 $52,000,000 5199900%
State Bankshares, Inc. $4,800 $0 $50,000,000 1041567%
Home Bancshares, Inc. $1,500 $0 $50,000,000 3333233%
Fidelity Southern Corporation $300 $0 $48,200,000 16066567%
MetroCorp Bancshares, Inc. $1,500 $0 $45,000,000 2999900%
Cadence Financial Corporation $8,250 $0 $44,000,000 533233%
Exchange Bank $2,750 $0 $43,000,000 1563536%
Sterling Bancorp $1,300 $0 $42,000,000 3230669%
Eagle Bancorp, Inc. $801 $0 $38,235,000 4773308%
Bridgeview Bancorp, Inc. $6,600 $0 $38,000,000 575658%
OceanFirst Financial Corp. $3,300 $0 $38,000,000 1151415%
First Defiance Financial Corp. $2,000 $0 $37,000,000 1849900%
State Bancorp, Inc. $6,850 $0 $36,842,000 537739%
Fidelity Financial Corporation $1,657,052 $2,190,000 $36,282,000 843%
Yadkin Valley Financial Corporation $1,250 $0 $36,000,000 2879900%
West Bancorporation, Inc. $250 $0 $36,000,000 14399900%
Porter Bancorp $5,000 $0 $35,000,000 699900%
Encore Bancshares Inc. $4,300 $0 $34,000,000 790598%
First Security Group, Inc. $3,350 $0 $33,000,000 984975%
Centrue Financial Corporation $1,000 $0 $33,000,000 3299900%
Pulaski Financial Corp $1,000 $0 $33,000,000 3299900%
Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corporation $2,300 $0 $28,685,000 1247074%
Centerstate Banks of Florida Inc. $500 $0 $27,875,000 5574900%
Citizens & Northern Corporation $700 $0 $26,000,000 3714186%
Peoples Bancorp of North Carolina, Inc. $2,125 $0 $25,054,000 1178912%
Shore Bancshares, Inc. $3,800 $0 $25,000,000 657795%
Horizon Bancorp $2,600 $0 $25,000,000 961438%
Intervest Bancshares Corporation $2,300 $0 $25,000,000 1086857%
HF Financial Corp. $250 $0 $25,000,000 9999900%
Heritage Financial Corporation $1,250 $0 $24,000,000 1919900%
Wainwright Bank & Trust Company $15,250 $0 $22,000,000 144162%
Citizens South Banking Corporation $750 $0 $20,500,000 2733233%
First Financial Service Corporation $7,325 $0 $20,000,000 272938%
BNCCORP, Inc. $5,050 $0 $20,000,000 395940%
C&F Financial Corporation $250 $0 $20,000,000 7999900%
Carver Bancorp, Inc $5,300 $0 $19,000,000 358391%
Bar Harbor Bankshares/Bar Harbor Bank & Trust $500 $0 $19,000,000 3799900%
Security Federal Corporation $1,250 $0 $18,000,000 1439900%
ECB Bancorp, Inc./East Carolina Bank $1,000 $0 $18,000,000 1799900%
Timberland Bancorp, Inc. $430 $0 $16,641,000 3869900%
Carolina Bank Holdings, Inc. $1,250 $0 $16,000,000 1279900%
BankFirst Capital Corporation $500 $0 $16,000,000 3199900%
Monarch Financial Holdings, Inc. $1,997 $0 $14,700,000 736004%
Magna Bank $2,250 $0 $13,795,000 613011%
Morrill Bancshares, Inc. $3,100 $0 $13,000,000 419255%
LCNB Corp. $1,000 $0 $13,000,000 1299900%
OneUnited Bank $3,550 $0 $12,063,000 339703%
First Manitowoc Bancorp, Inc. $2,500 $0 $12,000,000 479900%
1st Constitution Bancorp $2,000 $0 $12,000,000 599900%
Pacific Coast Bankers' Bancshares $250 $0 $11,600,000 4639900%
Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc. $1,800 $0 $10,000,000 555456%
Uwharrie Capital Corp $1,500 $0 $10,000,000 666567%
Midland States Bancorp $500 $0 $10,000,000 1999900%
New Hampshire Thrift Bancshares, Inc. $500 $0 $10,000,000 1999900%
Citizens First Corporation $74,700 $0 $8,779,000 11652%
Syringa Bancorp $750 $0 $8,000,000 1066567%
First Sound Bank $2,716 $0 $7,400,000 272359%
Western Community Bancshares, Inc. $5,600 $0 $7,290,000 130079%
Fidelity Bancorp, Inc. $5,100 $0 $7,000,000 137155%
Somerset Hills Bancorp $2,000 $0 $7,000,000 349900%
American State Bancshares, Inc. $5,350 $0 $6,000,000 112050%
Patapsco Bancorp, Inc. $1,050 $0 $6,000,000 571329%
Seaside National Bank & Trust $400 $0 $6,000,000 1499900%
Northeast Bancorp $1,000 $0 $4,227,000 422600%
Pacific Commerce Bank $1,500 $0 $4,060,000 270567%
Capital Pacific Bancorp $1,750 $0 $4,000,000 228471%
Bank of Commerce $15,950 $0 $3,000,000 18709%
FPB Financial Corp. $500 $0 $3,000,000 599900%
Treaty Oak Bancorp, Inc. $250 $0 $3,000,000 1199900%
Grand Total $37,477,300 $76,702,895 $305,212,309,000 267208%

*TARP recipient list accessed at Treasury.gov on Feb. 2, 2009. List includes only recipients that spent money on lobbying or were associated with campaign contributions. Campaign contributions include money from PACs and individuals but do not include post-election fundraising.

**Includes data for Merrill Lynch, which was acquired by Bank of America

Liberty is our campaigns gift to the world it is our manifest destiny.
Freedom is a movement who's time has come. Our campaign will lead world wide freedom.

You said it the way I see it. The calm before the storm. Be patient - we have some great financial people on DP that will answer and update the financial situation.

FREEDOM